Saturday was a borderline perfect day for the Iowa State basketball program, but with that win comes a responsibility that we'll find out soon enough if this Cyclone team is capable of carrying. On the playground of the Big 12, Iowa State made a statement in taking down Kansas and with it now being the Cyclones' court, there's no time for rest as Kansas State just called "next".
Tuesday night's game won't have the same fanfare and the build up will pale in comparison, but make no mistake, this game against the Wildcats is no less important. Kansas State limped into conference play with six losses already on the ledger and after Oklahoma State downed Bruce Weber's team by 14 in the league opener, it looked like it was going to be a long winter in Manhattan. But then something bizarre happened...
Kansas State ripped off four straight wins, including triumphs over then #16 Oklahoma in Norman and Saturday's victory over then #22 Baylor at home and now sits atop the league at 4-1 in Big 12 play. I don't know if Papa McFlopsweat took the guys out for ice cream or if they had a bonding experience during an all-night bender at the Mustang Gentleman's Club in Junction City, but this team appears to have turned the corner and has lately looked a lot like the outfit many expected to see coming into the year.
About Kansas State
Ever since Bob Huggins revitalized the K-State program, one word has defined the brand of basketball played by the Wildcats; toughness. Huggins passed that mentality along to Frank Martin, whose teams were as gritty and physical as they come and now Weber has extended the tradition through his tenure.
Far from a great (or even good) offensive team, K-State is going to hang their hat on doing two things; grinding the pace to a near stand-still and making the opposition really work for good looks. According to kenpom.com, the Wildcats' adjusted tempo ranks at 304th in the country, but part of the reason they already have 7 losses stems from the fact that their defensive effective field goal percentage comes in at 49.5%, which is 202nd nationally.
In five Big 12 games, K-State is holding opponents to a league low 57.8 points, but I'm not sure how much you can really read into that as three of those games came against Oklahoma State, TCU and Texas Tech, who are all among the bottom four in the conference in scoring (K-State is 9th in the league with 58.4 points per game).
In conference action, the Wildcats have truly been a Jekyl and Hyde case when it comes to turnovers. Offensively, only two teams have a higher turnover rate (21.6%) than K-State, but on the defensive end, this team is forcing turnovers on 22.6% of their opponents' possessions, which is the second best clip in the conference.
Beyond the two-man core of Marcus Foster (13.6 PPG) and Thomas Gipson (11.2 PPG), K-State has struggled to really develop a third scoring option consistently. Nino Williams (10.9 PPG) does average double figures and is playing some of the best basketball of his career, but is far from a polished offensive weapon.
Foster is the catalyst and the entire Wildcat offense runs through him as he's attempted 51 more shots than the next closest guy on the team. The sophomore has a tendency to live on the perimeter as 58% of his looks have come from deep. To be honest though, that's a good place for him to be as he's knocked down 45.2% of his 3s on the year.
Wesley Iwundu is another sophomore that's an intriguing player. At 6'7" he has good length for a small forward and while he's still developing offensively, Weber uses him as a point forward situationally, where he's done an admirable job. Iwundu is aruably K-State's best defensive player and don't be surprised to see him spend time on everyone from Monte Morris to Georges Niang. Iwundu's on-ball defense against Kenny Chery from Baylor was arguably one of the biggest reasons the Wildcats were able to come back from 12 down in the second half for the win over the Bears.
So Who Wins?
Since "Hoiball" began in earnest (the '11-'12 season), Iowa State is 5-2 against Kansas State, including last year's win in the Big 12 Tournament. While that may seem like a solid edge, the average score in those seven meetings has been 74.1 to 73.2 in Iowa State's favor. Five of the seven contests have been decided by six points or less and every margin of victory has come by single digits. The Cyclones are also a perfect 3-0 in Ames during that span.
Truth be told, you do have to worry about a let-down effort after the high of Saturday night. Part of the reason Kansas has won at least a share of ten straight conference championships is because they know how to play with a target on their chest and rarely fall victim to the let-down swoon.
Iowa State has a real chance to close out January with a bang as the Cyclones will be favored in every game (Kansas State, at Texas Tech, Texas and TCU) from here until the grudge match against Kansas in Lawrence on February 2nd. But getting to 7-1 in league play starts by first getting to 4-1 (as cliche as that may sound).
Kenpom.com really likes Iowa State in this spot with his analytics calling for a 75-63 win with an 88% win probability. While I certainly can agree with picking the Cyclones in Tuesday night's game, I'm not so sure I can be as bullish about that margin of victory.
Fred Hoiberg's crew was exceptional in portions of Saturday night's win and that game likely graded out as one of the more impressive performances of the year from the coach's stand point, but can this team ride that emotional wave all the way into Tuesday? That's what remains to be seen.
Over the course of 40 minutes, we'll find out if this Iowa State team has developed the winner's mentality to handle their business in this type of spot against a confident K-State team, or if they're still learning how to gain that edge.
Unfortunately, I think we see a little bit of both, but as well as this team plays at home, Iowa State grinds out another victory.
Iowa State 74 - Kansas State 67
Game Notes
Tip: 6 PM CST
TV: ESPN2
Radio: Cyclone Radio Network
Cyclones.com Game Notes: Available here
Kansas State SB Nation Site: Bring On the Cats
Three Questions
1) Is Bruce Weber the most inconsolable looking coach in the country (this is really more of a rhetorical question)?
2) Aside from home court, what is the biggest edge Iowa State has over Kansas State in this game?
3) Who wins and why?