FanPost

The statistical argument against BDJ

There's been a lot of back and forth about whether or not BDJ is playing up to his potential and/or actually contributing to the team when it matters. My hypothesis has been that he has good counting stats, which are a function of his usage rate, and that most of his damage has been done against the lower level competition but that he hasn't had a meaningful impact in the games that we're going to need to win to achieve our goals this year (essentially games against other Power 5 schools).

If you look at advanced stats (basketball-reference.com), BDJ leads or is near the lead in true shooting percentage, win shares, and win shares per minute, all indicative of the efficient and impactful player we know he can be. But when you segregate his counting stats by Power 5 and non-Power 5 games, it's obvious that he's not nearly as impactful in the games that matter more. Everyone on the team suffers in some way against the stiffer competition, which stands to reason. But BDJ drops off in the top 3 counting stats (points, rebounds, assists), A/TO ratio, and FG%. His Power 5 assists drop to 16% of his non-Power 5 average, and his A/TO ratio drops to 20% of his non-Power 5 average.

Whether this is because of minutes, foul trouble, trying to do too much, lack of focus, or whatever, it's obvious (to me) that BDJ has not had a meaningful impact in the types of games that we're going to want him to have a meaningful impact in. I'm not fatalistic about this - I think it can be fixed and I think that BDJ is the most talented player on the floor - but this is the statistical support for those of us that are underwhelmed by his performance to date.

(Note: if anyone knows where to find efficiency stats on a game by game basis, that would help prove or disprove this hypothesis.)

(Note 2: In the comments, I mentioned that Arkansas was an outlier for BDJ and if you exclude that his drop looks even more severe. These stats include the Arkansas game.)

Values
Row Labels Average of PTS Average of TRB Average of AST Average of TOV Sum of FG Sum of FGA Delta Pts. Delta TRB Delta A A/TO A/TO % FG% Delta FG%
3sus 12.77 3.23 1.92 1.38 55 115
N 13.86 2.43 2.14 1.57 32 65 83% 172% 78% 1.36 105% 49% 93%
Y 11.50 4.17 1.67 1.17 23 50 1.43 46%
BDJ 13.42 6.08 3.17 2.00 57 106
N 14.43 6.43 4.86 2.14 38 68 83% 87% 16% 2.27 20% 56% 89%
Y 12.00 5.60 0.80 1.80 19 38 0.44 50%
Georges 15.15 5.54 3.77 2.62 66 140
N 13.86 5.14 3.00 2.29 32 60 120% 117% 156% 1.31 119% 53% 80%
Y 16.67 6.00 4.67 3.00 34 80 1.56 43%
Hogue 11.77 4.92 1.31 1.46 58 96
N 10.57 4.71 1.71 1.29 27 47 125% 110% 49% 1.33 38% 57% 110%
Y 13.17 5.17 0.83 1.67 31 49 0.50 63%
Iceman 6.36 2.73 1.18 0.45 24 63
N 7.00 2.60 1.40 0.60 12 33 83% 109% 71% 2.33 129% 36% 110%
Y 5.83 2.83 1.00 0.33 12 30 3.00 40%
ManMan 10.08 3.46 5.31 0.92 51 106
N 11.57 2.86 5.29 0.86 30 49 72% 146% 101% 6.17 86% 61% 60%
Y 8.33 4.17 5.33 1.00 21 57 5.33 37%
Nader 5.00 3.27 1.27 1.82 21 54
N 5.60 4.80 2.20 1.80 12 34 80% 42% 23% 1.22 22% 35% 128%
Y 4.50 2.00 0.50 1.83 9 20 0.27 45%
Grand Total 10.85 4.21 2.62 1.53 332 680

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