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Betting the Big XII: Week 13

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Looking at the conference standings through smoke filled glasses.

Since Iowa State currently resides at the bottom of the conference standings, I thought I would look at the season from a slightly different perspective. If you've been following along this season, you understand that I look at each week's games from a betting angle; trying to analyze the matchups compared to a number generated through a combined effort of machine and man. With that in mind I thought it would be fun to see how the conference looks though Vegas' eyes.

Below are the conference standings based on W-L records Against the Spread (ATS).

Overall

Conference

W

L

D

W

L

D

TCU

8

-

2

-

0

5

-

2

-

0

Texas

7

-

4

-

0

5

-

3

-

0

Kansas State

6

-

3

-

0

4

-

2

-

0

Kansas

5

-

5

-

0

4

-

3

-

0

Texas Tech

4

-

6

-

0

4

-

3

-

0

West Virginia

6

-

4

-

0

3

-

4

-

0

Baylor

6

-

2

-

1

3

-

2

-

1

Iowa State

4

-

3

-

2

2

-

2

-

2

Oklahoma

4

-

6

-

0

2

-

5

-

0

Oklahoma State

2

-

7

-

1

0

-

6

-

1

Underperformers:

Oklahoma - Oklahoma has been favored in each of their games this season. They have covered only 40% of the time.

Oklahoma State - Oklahoma State has one of the worst ATS records in the FBS this season and have yet to cover a game during conference play.

Overachievers:

TCU - Perhaps Vegas was slow to get on the bandwagon, but TCU covered their first seven games before the action caught up to them. They have also covered 70% (7-3) of their Overs this season which is fairly impressive considering how good their defense has played.

Texas - Bolstered greatly by their improved performance on the field, the Longhorns are exceeding expectations, at least from a gambling perspective.

Week 12 Results

TCU 34 - Kansas 30

Bet $22/Under 58 (L)

Cash $0

You just don't get it, do you Kansas? You are supposed to be a sacrificial element in the Big XII, subject to wonton abuse by the haves. Your recent transgressions will be dealt with on the hardwood.

Oklahoma 42 - Texas Tech 30

Bet $110/OU -12.5 (L)

Cash $0

The hook brings you back, on that you can rely.

Texas 28 - Oklahoma State 7

Bet $55/Texas -2.5 (W)

Cash $105

The spiral continues for the Pokes.

Week 12 Profit:                ($ 82.00)

Current Bank:                    $ 993.00

Season Profit:                   $ 493.00

To the Games

Kansas State @ West Virginia - Thursday, November 20th @ 6:00 PM - FS1

Line - WVU -2

O/U 57.5

West Virginia has had a fairly nice season to date. They opened with a surprisingly close contest with then #2 Alabama and won six of their next seven games before losing the last two. Teams often wear down by the end of the year, especially those involved with a schedule as grueling as the Big XII imposes upon its members. A home loss to TCU is understandable and a loss to Texas in Austin is nothing to be ashamed of considering how well the Longhorns have been playing of late. The question is have the Mountaineers peaked from a performance standpoint, or can they regain momentum and finish the season strong?

Kansas State has not played a game since their Week 11 dismantling in Fort Worth. We all suspected a November loss was likely looming for Bill Snyder's team, and it shocked none when that loss came at TCU.

I am surprised the money has WVU favored by two in this matchup. It is a road contest for the Wildcats yet two of West Virginia's four losses have been at home to top tier teams and they are 0-1 ATS when favored at home (2-2 overall) in conference play.  I don't see K-State losing this game.

Plus, I'm pretty sure the Mountaineers are looking ahead to next weekend's Riot Bowl game in Ames, so distractions and things.

My Bet K-State +2/$22

Kansas @ Oklahoma - Saturday, November 22nd @ 11:00 AM - FS1

Line - OU -25

O/U 53

Oklahoma is in a unique position this season; not in contention for a conference title. While not mathematically eliminated with two games remaining, the odds (and TCU's schedule) do not favor the Sooners to win at least a share of their ninth conference championship under Bob Stoops. How does a team that had playoff aspirations respond over their last two games against teams that are good enough to beat an overlooking Oklahoma?

Kansas, like I warned last week, is a dangerous team playing inspired football. At 3-7, they know they will not receive a postseason invitation to even the lowest of bowl games (I'm looking at you, Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl), but that doesn't mean they can't give their departing seniors something to remember and their interim coach a legitimate shot at earning the gig full time.

Oklahoma spotted Texas Tech a 21-7 lead before finally deciding to play football again last weekend. That slow start cost me money and Kansas is not a team to toy with as TCU learned last weekend.

My Bet KU +25/$22

Texas Tech @ Iowa State - Saturday, November 22nd @ 2:30 PM - FSN

Line - ISU -1.5

O/U 69.5

Oh, who the hell knows.

My Bet ISU -1.5/$11

Oklahoma State @ Baylor - Saturday, November 22nd @ 6:30 PM - Fox

Line - BU -27.5

O/U 68.5

With three games remaining, Baylor needs three convincing wins, and a little help from above, to have any chance at catapulting themselves into the Final Four. Two of their three remaining opponents will do little to significantly draw attention to the Bears. One of those teams is this weekend's matchup with Oklahoma State. Had this game been played, oh, say a month ago, before the Cowboys decided to pack up their sleeping rolls and hit the trail, it could have garnered some attention. As it is, win and it likely does nothing to Baylor's position, but a loss or close game could end yet another opportunity for Briles and company to play for a National Championship.

Baylor will be looking to score some points but mostly just needs to win and hope K-State does the same.

My Bet Over 68.5/$22

Playoffs?

So, yeah, last week's basketball bets were not so fantastic. I did, however, warn you of this beforehand so if you used my post for your own betting purposes, that is on you and I will feel no remorse.

Let's focus instead on what I've been fairly successful with this year; football. The playoff picture is starting to take shape although a lot can still happen to cause mass chaos.

Surprising none, two SEC teams are currently in the top four after Alabama kept their defeat of previous #1 Mississippi State close enough to prevent their conference brethren from falling completely out of the picture. TCU's close call with a pesky Kansas team was enough to give them the cold shoulder by the "un-biased" committee, dropping them to #5 even though their resume is as good if not better than the four teams above them.

#1 Alabama vs Western Carolina - Saturday, November 22 @ 6:00 PM - SEC Network

Line - OTB

The SEC ensures there will be no late season stumbling with their annual FCS BYE week scheduled this weekend. As I reported from the beginning, Vegas traditionally does not lay lines out for FCS matchups, so this game is Off the Board.

My Bet Alabama keeps its hold on first place.

#2 Oregon vs Colorado - Saturday, November 22 @ 3:30 PM - Pac-12 Network

Line - Oregon -32.5

O/U - 72.5

I'll be honest, I haven't followed Oregon much this year. I live on the West Coast, so one would assume I pay some attention to the Pac-12, but that just isn't the case. Oregon is 5-4 ATS this season. Colorado is 5-5 and appears to have given up yet again, losing their last six games. Their defense is giving up 44 ppg during conference play and Oregon does like to score the rock. The Buffalo offense also seems capable of scoring, so I can see a 55-24 type game here. Not enough to cover the spread, but certainly enough combined points to make an Over bet an enjoyable experience.

My Bet Over 72.5

#3 Florida State vs Boston College - Saturday, November 22 @ 2:30 PM - ABC/ESPN2

Line - FSU -19

O/U 56.5

In yet another mark against his character, Jameis Winston has been accused of shaving points during 2014. On the surface, it absolutely seems plausible but I feel it has more to do with an overvalued team playing sloppy football at time yet doing just enough to win.

As a small departure from the norm this week, I am introducing you to the halftime bet. In most Books, on most games, you can wager on the outcome during either half. The first half bet is published the same as full game spreads whereas the second half line is based on how teams played during the first stanza. I have no statistics to back it up, but FSU has stunk it up in the first half almost every game this season yet turning it on in the second half to pull off the win. It happened against NC State early on and it happened again last weekend against The U. If I were a betting man, and apparently I am, I would ride the first half line for the remaining two games. Unfortunately, that line is not out at publication, but it typically half of the over all spread +/- a point or two. Trust me, BC covers.

My Bet BC +9 First Half

#4 Mississippi State vs Vanderbilt - Saturday, November 22nd @ 6:30 PM - SEC Network

Line - MSU -30.5

O/U 53.5

Apparently, these two SEC teams did not receive the in house memo during scheduling. Looking at Vanderbilt's resume, however, makes me think perhaps it won't be a much larger challenge for the Bulldogs than the typical FCS school. Vandy's lone three victories have been against UMASS, Charleston Southern and Old Dominion. A victory over this powerhouse should be enough to propel MSU back to their rightful place as the nation's #2.

My Bet Vandy +30.5 because eff the SEC

I don't expect much to change in the standings this week based on the schedule. Check in next week where I'll show a scenario that has two Big XII teams facing two from the SEC in the Final Four. Wouldn't that be fun.