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Betting the Big XII: Week 11

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For a conference who doesn't have a conference championship game, we sure are playing a lot of them this weekend.

As sad, or relieving, as it is to say; college football is quickly coming to its season’s end. I am always amazed at how quickly this period of time passes by. One day the excitement and anticipation for a fresh season ripe with possibilities pushes aside all other thoughts in your head. Then, you blink and the cold brutal winds of reality usher you thankfully into winter and indoor activities.

It has been a good betting season for me, so far, and I have secured enough in winnings to fictitiously shower my family with thoughtful holiday gifts like a new 55" LED television set for my man cave our family room. Or, that new set of golf clubs I little Billy wanted from Sports Authority. But, the season is not over and the money has work left to do.

Perhaps at the end of the season I will also calculate my W/L percentage, but I have focused little on that due to the belief profit outweighs winning percentage.

Week 10 Results

Oklahoma 59 – Iowa State 14

Bet ISU+16.5/$11 (L)

Cash $0

Moving on.

TCU 31 – West Virginia 30

Bet TCU -5.5/$55 (L)
Cash $0

TCU is impressing me more each week.

Kansas 14 – Baylor 60

Bet Over 61.5/$110 (W)

Cash $210

I honestly thought this would be way worse.

Texas 34 – Texas Tech 13
Bet Texas -15.5/$22 (W)
Cash $42

Keep on sucking, Texas Tech.

Oklahoma State 14 – Kansas State 48

Bet K-State -12/$55 (W)

Cash $105

Poor Poke fans.

Week 10 Profit:                $ 104.00

Current Bank:    $ 1,207.00

Season Profit:   $ 707.00

To the games:

Baylor @ Oklahoma – Saturday, November 8th @ 11:00 AM – FS1

Line: OU -6

O/U: 73

In the first of two showcase showdowns this weekend in the Big XII, Baylor controls its destiny to the conference championship while Oklahoma plays the unfamiliar role of spoiler. I doubt OU players had to spend much time on the trainer's table after last weekend’s game, so look for a hungry healthy Sooner squad Saturday night.

Baylor has not really played a game since losing to West Virginia three weekends ago. Yes, they played Kansas, but the spanking they put on the hapless Jayhawks did little to improve them in the Playoff Rankings. A win on the road in Norman (where Stoops has only lost 4 games during his tenure) would put them within a pitching wedge of the playoff and only K-State standing in their way.

As impressive the run Oklahoma has going against Iowa State is, their winning percentage at home under Bob Stoops is equally so. Couple that with the notion Baylor plays poorly on the road and I don’t think the Bears can get the victory against a pissed off Oklahoma team. I think OU wins easily by a touchdown.

My Bet – Oklahoma -6/$22

Iowa State @ Kansas – Saturday, November 8th @ 2:30 PM – FSN

Line: ISU -3.5

O/U: 54.5

There is probably only one way for the Cyclone faithful to walk away from this game with a sense of progress and satisfaction; a total and utter dismantling of the Jayhawks. A victory alone on Saturday afternoon is almost expected and should the gods instead favor the home team, well I dare not consider that possibility.

From a betting perspective, this marks only the third time this season Iowa State has been favored by Vegas to win (NDSU and Toledo) but the first for a road trip. The Jayhawks are no stranger to the underdog role, although this does mark the first occasion they are not receiving double digits.

Both teams are certainly looking at this matchup as their best chance for a conference victory, so anything can happen. The rumor is Sammy Bitchin Richardson (I will keep repeating this until it catches on) is not going to play, and that is disappointing, but consider the fact that it has been Iowa State's backup who secured victory the past two seasons, including Bitchin's debut in 2012, and I ain't scurr'd.

My Bet Iowa State -3.5/$110

West Virginia @ Texas – Saturday, November 8th @ 2:30 PM – FS1

Line: WVU -3.5

O/U: 52

Not surprisingly to many, I assume, West Virginia has been a solid betting proposition in 2014 with a 6-3 ATS record. What may be surprising is the fact that two of those non-covers were to cellar dwellers, Kansas (-27.5) and Texas Tech (-6). The fact that West Virginia could not cover seven, needing a last second field goal to prevent overtime, on the road in Lubbock makes this line fairly dangerous.

Texas has improved since the beginning of the season and holds a 5-4 ATS record. Their success, however, seems to come against teams with non-aggressive defenses allowing an inconsistent Swoopes the time to gain confidence. As Iowa State learned, a confident Swoopes is a dangerous Swoopes.

From what I’ve seen of the Mountaineers they are not afraid to bring the pain and I expect the Texas offense to be completely derailed because of it.

My Bet West Virginia -3.5/$22

Kansas State @ TCU – Saturday, November 8th @ 6:30 PM – FOX

Line: TCU -6

O/U 57.5

In a game Marie Schrader would love for its many shades of lavender; K-State and TCU cap off the Big XII’s Week 11 lineup with what I’m coining The Fight in Ft. Worth. The Duel in Dallas sounds better, but would be geographically incorrect and I am a man who deals only in facts.

I didn't realize this stat until writing this, but TCU is an incredible 7-1 ATS this season. Their lone loss came last weekend as they willed their way to a narrow victory in Morgantown. This had me curious, so I went back through the weeks to see how profitable the Horned Frogs have been for me. The results: I have profited $216, or 30.6% of my total winnings, off of TCU’s season. Thank you for that you purple eye-blood-spitting freak of nature.

If TCU is able to avoid the upset this week the rest of their schedule sets up nicely for them with visits to Kansas and Texas before hosting Iowa State for Senior Day. Three teams positioned above them in the playoff rankings still play each other, so a seat at the inaugural final four is all but guaranteed if TCU wins out.

Like their opponent, K-State, currently ranked right behind TCU at 6th, could find an invitation to the show if they win out. Unlike their opponent, the Wildcat’s schedule is just heating up. After TCU, should they survive, Snyderball still needs to face a pesky Mountaineer team, in state "rival" Kansas and Baylor. Both WVU and Baylor are road games.

Buckle up, Purplecats, shits about to get real bumpy.


My Bet TCU -6/$22

Bonus Basketball Betting!

Since everybody is seemingly turning their attention to the upcoming MBB season (justifiably so), I thought I would use this part of the post for some basketball betting. This will not be a regular thing for the following reasons:

1) I don’t understand basketball well enough to successfully handicap games

2) Too many games in a week for me to cover
3) See reason #1

However, with all the hype and excitement surrounding Iowa State’s Men’s Basketball team, I figured I would take a look at the future odds for teams winning the National Championship game in April. I focused on Iowa State, of course, plus some other noteworthy programs. If you would like to see Vegas' complete list you can at www.vegasinsider.com. Keep in mind, each sports book has its own handicappers which set the odds and prop bets and these can vary wildly from casino to casino. So if you saw a source that is significantly different than what I have posted here, well…good for you.

Iowa State – 35:1


At first I was hesitant to put money down. Sure, I like our chances A LOT, but would I be okay if we made it to the Sweet 16, Elite Eight or even the Championship game and lose? My emotions of that loss alone would probably get the better of me, but to lose money on top of it might push me into a weeklong funk. Then a friend of mine suggested the following:

"Put $10 on it and use the money to buy a very nice celebratory bottle of scotch."

I will let you know next week what odds I end up with at the window.

Iowa – 220:1

Depth.

Kansas – 17:1

Nothing surprising here though I don’t see it happening. Under Bill Self, whom I truly do respect as a coach, Kansas has lost more first weekend games (4) than games they have played in for the National Championship (3). Not to say playing for three championships in an eleven year span is anything less than totally impressive, but these odds aren’t favorable enough for me to wager on them.

Now, if it were for the Big XII Championship…

Kentucky – 9:5

Getting 9:5, what a way to make a living. (Bonus points for know what song this is set to. Double bonus if you are under the age of 25)

Wisconsin – 9:1

I cannot imagine a more boring championship game than a game featuring Wisconsin.

Texas – 30:1

Yeah, Barnes and the tournament were not meant to co-exist.

UNLV – 300:1

Dave Rice is a hell of a recruiter but a horrible coach. I'll personally lay 4:1 odds he is fired at the end of the season for under performing once again.

May the gods of happiness shine down upon us to bring cheer and good basketyball tidings to all