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Betting the Big XII: Week 3

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Providing solid betting analysis since August 2014

Last week was a prime example why I do not, on principle, bet the Cyclones. With the agony of losing to North Dakota State fresh in my mind, and feeling the onset of Cyclonious-footballfanitis (symptoms include dizziness, slurred speech, erratic emotional swings and sore testicles exhibited in most males; not unlike symptoms of extreme intoxication) I let my emotions take over. Irrational, I instinctively bet against my team using the flawed logic, "if we’re not going to win this game I will profit from my misery". Time and time again this has proven a horrible strategy and history often repeats itself. Not only did we lose the game, but I lost my money.

Double the whammy. Double the pain.

That misery aside, I had my second straight profitable week.

Beginning Bank                 $508

In Play                   $77

Results


Oklahoma-52  Tulsa-7

Bet – OU -24.5/$33 (W)

Pay - $63

My largest bet of the week proved to be a good one. Not sure Oklahoma even had to shower after this one.

K-State-32 Iowa State-28

Bet – K-State -12/$11 (L)

Pay - $0

Damn you, Cyclones, for toying with my emotions.

BYU-41 Texas-7

Bet - BYU -1/$11 (W)

Pay - $21

Wow.

Texas Tech-30 UTEP-26

Bet – Over 65/$22 (L)

Pay - $0

If a team sucks in Western Texas late at night, does it make a sound?

Cash                      $84

Bank                      $515

We have reached the point of the season where my betting ego over powers my better judgement. Having reaped the rewards of sound strategy ($15!), I feel myself becoming bored with $8-10 payouts. That is not what gambling is about, is it? Gambling should be about bad decisions and pleading conversations with your wife. This week, I begin to make amends.

To the games.

Baylor @ Buffalo - Friday, September 12th @ 7:00 PM – ESPN

Line Baylor -35

O/U 69.5

Baylor is a machine. A machine with interchangeable parts allowing for seamless transition from quarterback to quarterback, defensive front to defensive front. The names of these parts are meaningless as the machine operates the same regardless of component. No Bryce Petty? Seth Russell throws for 562 yards. Lache Seastrunk gone? We have three other capable running backs to take his place.

This does not bode well for our chances in two weeks. Our only hope is they score so many points in upstate New York that the entire team is still fatigued when they run out of J. Trice’s tunnel. Here’s hoping.

I really miss the old Baylor.

My bet - $55 on Baylor -35

West Virginia @ Maryland – September 13th @ 11:00 AM – BTN

Line  West Virginia +3.5

O/U 57

West Virginia has recently owned Maryland in this regional rivalry game winning every matchup between 2004 and 2012. However, Maryland won 37-0 in Baltimore last season while West Virginia was still transitioning from Big East power to Big XII dweller. The Terrapins rode their horrible uniforms to an eventual 7-6 record, ending the season with an Armed Forces Bowl loss to Marshall.

Maryland has too many things going against it. While Oregon popularized the outlandish and ever changing uniform and in the process creating buzz for their program and becoming a national power; Maryland took that model and did this with it. To this day, I refuse to buy Under Armour apparel knowing that the proceeds fund these atrocities. That, and the now play in the Big Ten.

My bet - $22 on West Virginia +3.5

Kansas @ Duke - September 13th @ 2:30 PM – ACC

Line Kansas +15

O/U 55.5

This game would be played on Monday night, if it were played inside a cramped, historic and out dated gym. But this is football, where neither team has a considerable recruiting advantage or storied history. Duke had an impressive season last year, making the ACC Championship game and a real live bowl game. I am not sold that Duke has really risen as a program. Sure, they got dressed up last year and looked real pretty, but the ball is over. The glass slippers are starting to hurt your feet, all the dancing has made your makeup pour into your eye sockets and the chariot has turned back into a pumpkin. Nobody stays a princess forever. Unless you marry a prince, but then you have to do social engagements like every Saturday, there’s always cameras around and the Queen can be a real uptight bitch sometimes…

I digress. Yes, they beat Elon and Troy, but now the talent level jumps if only marginally. I feel this line is more representative of 2013 Duke and I might be able to take advantage of the book’s overvaluation early in the season.

My bet - $22 on Kansas +15

Iowa State @ Iowa – September 13th @ 2:30 PM – ESPN

Line Iowa State +10

O/U 49

For the second weekend in a row, Iowa State opened as a 15 point underdog only to have that line move considerably downward within the first day. The betting public is bullish on the Cyclones. Maybe it is because Iowa could be without their freak of nature left tackle. Maybe because this is a rivalry game where the winning team wins with a last minute touchdown (I’m positive it will not be a FG). Or, perhaps it’s because Iowa has looked less than impressive with their narrow victories against UNI and Ball State. Alas, they were victories. I will give them that.

This much is known. Iowa has yet to cover this season, and have beaten their lessor opponents by an average of six points. At home. Not overly impressive for a team considered by some to be top 30 material.

My bet – Fuck Iowa/$22 on Iowa State +10

Arkansas @ Texas Tech – September 13th @ 2:30 PM – ABC

Line TTU -2

O/U 66

Maybe it was the late night kickoff last weekend, or the fact their game with the Central Arkansas Bears was not anywhere to be found on television, but I cannot for the life of me figure how Texas Tech is favored in this game. Vegas will traditionally spot a home team a field goal, making Tech a neutral site dog in this one, but I still don’t get it. Their offense is putting up some points but they have been eeking by to date. I just don’t get it.

Arkansas, on the other hand, gave Auburn a run for its money in week one before destroying Nicholls State 73-7. They were beating the Colonels 56-0 at halftime. Meanwhile, in a town nobody wants to live in at an hour nobody was awake, Texas Tech was up 16-13.

I hate tipping my hat to the SEC in any matchup with the Big XII, but I just don’t see Tech as all there yet.

My bet – $22 on Arkansas +2

Minnesota @ TCU – September 13th @ 3:00 PM – FS1

Line TCU - 14

O/U 47.5

Seriously. It’s Minnesota.

My bet – (I wrote this before I even looked at the lines) $55 on TCU cover

UTSA @ Oklahoma State – September 13th @ 6:00 PM – FSN

Line OSU -13.5

O/U 55

Texas-San Antonio is not a team to overlook. Having won on the road against Houston, and narrowly losing against a pretty good Arizona team, they could give the Cowboys a run for their money.

Did you know UTSA was coached by Larry Coker? I did not. Did you know Larry Coker was the Offensive Coordinator for Oklahoma State when Mike Gundy was the Quarterback? Wikipedia did. I did not.

As the only coach in program history, Coker owns a 20-16 record at UTSA in its first 3 years. Do not sleep on the Roadrunners.

My Bet - $22 on the Over (55) – I don’t see this being a defensive struggle

Tennessee @ Oklahoma – September 13th @ 7:00 PM – ABC

Line Oklahoma – 20.5

O/U 56.5

Big XII tradition versus SEC doormat. I like it. We know what Oklahoma has done so far this season, and are well aware of their team’s ability. So, let’s look at Tennessee for a minute.

Yeah, I see nothing here that scares me. Tennessee has still not recovered from the fluorescent orange days of Derek Dooley.

Doesn’t it seem like Tennessee should only recruit non-scholarship walk-ons? I mean, they are the Volunteers, amiright? *rimshot

My bet - $33 on Oklahoma -20.5

UCLA @ Texas – September 13th @ 7:00 PM – FOX

Line Texas +8

O/U 50.5

On the merits of it being Texas football vs. UCLA this game will draw some eyeballs but I do not expect the game itself to be of much interest. The Bruins have been less than impressive so far and are 0-2 ATS. Most can overlook the early struggles against Virginia considering it was an early morning start on the East Coast for a West Coast team (I believe I called that one in the comments section), but to follow that up with a 7 point win against Memphis (Memphis?) in LA is almost inexcusable.

Texas is coming off another blowout loss to BYU. This time, in Austin with a new head coach, quarterback and offensive line. I am not confident either team is good enough to win this game, but someone has to. Since I want to believe Texas is better than both Virginia and Memphis, and the game is being played in Texas, I feel the underdog is the better play this week. As you can infer by the size of my wager, my confidence is not high.

My Bet - $11 on Texas +8

As conference season draws closer, and the amount of games condenses, I am introducing a new segment called Four Pick Parlay. In the Four Pick Parlay, I will pick four lines, within or outside of the Big XII, that I feel are the best bets of the weekend. These teams will constitute a 4 leg parlay card that, if I win, will pay 10/1.

Again, for those of you who have never bet before, allow me to summarize the merits of the parlay card.

Pro – Bet little, win lots

Con – Hard to win as each bet on the card must win for the card to win. Lose one and you’re done.

Pro – You can have an interest in a lot of games on one ticket

Con – I don’t really have one here. Other than what was mentioned above (hard to win) parlay cards are fun to play.

And so I give you Week 3’s Four Pick Parlay

Baylor                                   -35

Oklahoma                           -20.5

Notre Dame                       -28 (seriously, that’s all?)

Northern Illinois               -10 (You think it’s bad in Ames, you should talk to a UNLV fan. They are downright embarrassing this year)

I leave you with this. Every year on the morning of the big game, I post a link to the Iowa State fight song on my Facebook page and share it with every Hawkeye friend I have. I also post the words so that they may sing along.

Oh, we will fight, fight, fight for Iowa State

And may her colors ever fly.

Oh, we will fight with might for Iowa State

With the will to do or die!

RAH! RAH! RAH!

Loyal sons forever true, and we will fight the battle through.

And when we hit the line we’ll hit it hard,

Every yard for I-S-U!!

May god have mercy on us all.