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Betting the Big XII: Week 5

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Conference season is finally here! Gone are the no-win scenario FCS matchups (unless you need that win to help you gain bowl eligibility, which we didn’t get) and the cross conference matchups against lessor competition such as the Big Ten (here’s looking at you, Iowa). Bring on the big games, the big lights and the big stage. Bring on Baylor! Well, actually, if you could just go ahead and let Baylor kind of forget to travel for this one, we’d probably be okay with that, too.

And, yes, I know there are still some non-conference games lurking out there, but I believe in making general statements, generally.

Last Week’s Results

Auburn 20 – K-State 14

Bet – K-State +9/$33 (W)

Pay - $63

Missed it by that much.

And, that much. And, uh, that much.

But, hey, a cover is a cover. And since the Wildcats aren’t my team, that’s good enough for me.

Central Michigan 10 – Kansas 24

Bet – Kansas -3/$11

Pay - $21

Kansas beat Central Michigan. Central Michigan beat Purdue. Ergo, using the principles of transitive property, Kansas is better than Purdue. Let that settle with you a little bit, leftover Hawkeye fans reading this. You may want to avoid this post next week if you lose on Saturday.

Oklahoma 45 – West Virginia 33

Bet Oklahoma -7/$22

Pay - $42

Oklahoma is who we knew they were. West Virginia is who we thought they might be.

Parlay Pick 4

Houston -20.5 (W) – UNLV, you never disappoint.

Texas A&M -33.5 (W) – SMU bad.

TAMU/SMU Over (W) – Nothing I haven’t already said before.

BYU -14 (L) – Second week in a row a religious institution has prevented me from hitting my 4 teamer. My tithing practices might need an adjustment.

Starting Cash                                      $713

Money in Action                               ($66)

Winnings                                             $126

New Bank                                           $773

To the games.

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State – Thursday, September 25th @ 6:30 PM – ESPN

Line OSU -13.5

O/U 71

Oh, Texas Tech. You used to be something, with your quirky offense orchestrated by a small bitter looking man. Then, came the Tubberville era which came to an abrupt halt over dinner. Seriously, how much of a dick do you have to be to leave in the middle of dinner? Now Mike Leach has taken his punishment closets to Pullman, Washington and Tommy Tubberville is in the process of making the Bearcats marginal again. But you hired your dream coach in former Leach disciple, Kliff Kingsbury, even re-upping his contract this year.

The Fighting Gundy’s of OSU, on the other hand, continue to impress. Both on the field, and on the internets coining what I have decided the best derogatory name for an opponent, Taco Tech. I’m not sure how long this gem has been around, or who it can be properly attributed to, but I like it. I don’t even care what happens tonight on the field, Oklahoma State has already won.

My bet - $55 on OSU -13.5

UTEP @ Kansas State – Saturday, September 27th @ 11:00 AM – FSN

Line K-State -26.5

O/U 56

What better foe to face after a crushing self-inflicted loss such as the Wildcats faced last Thursday, then the Texans of El Paso? UTEP is not awful but also not good. Yes, they own the state of New Mexico, having defeated both of that state’s D-1 teams, but what does that even mean? Especially when sandwiched between those glorious victories was their lone loss to Taco Tech. Not an impressive resume.

However, and to totally contradict my line of thinking so far, they are 3-0 ATS this season. The line opened at 31 and has moved down since then indicating bettors also feel the line is a little high. Four touchdowns is a tough cover especially when the coach is not one for humiliating his opponent. I believe in you, wheat brother, but I just don’t see you covering a number so high.

My bet - $22 on UTEP +26.5

TCU @ SMU – Saturday, September 27th @ 11:00 AM – CBSSN

Line TCU -32

O/U 48

SMU is just plain bad. They are so bad, their coach quit on them two games into the season citing "personal reasons". My guess is those reasons were he didn’t want to be associated with the product he was putting on the field.

I’ll admit I haven’t paid that much attention to TCU yet this season. I’ll eventually need to research to see who is starting at quarterback and what their team identity is, but like last week, I’m not sure I need to do that against this opponent.

My bet - $33 TCU -32

Texas @ Kansas – Saturday, September 27th @ 3:00 PM – FS1

Line Texas -13.5

O/U 41.5

Kansas, as we’ve consistently highlighted over the years, is another pure stinker on the gridiron. Still, it’s good if we keep them around. Everybody needs a friend who is uglier than them. It just makes feeling better about yourself easier. So, Kansas, thank you for being our ugly friend.

Texas, then, is your friend who is going through a transition. They used to be the pretty and popular one in high school, but the Goth scene has taken hold of them leading them to hang out in dingy places with unsavory people.  Nobody needs this friend. Get your shit together, Texas.

I don’t have the statistics, because statistics lead to using logic and reasoning and when I use logic and reasoning, I pretend I am smarter than I really am. And when I pretend I am smarter than I really am, I lose money. So, let’s just say my instinct tells me that historically, Texas does not play well in Lawrence. Perhaps I’m clinging to my memory of the 2004 Texas team, led by eventual Heisman and National Championship winning Quarterback, Vince Young, that struggled to get out of town with a victory but I’m willing to hold onto that feeling for one more year at least.

My bet - $11 on Kansas +13.5

Baylor @ Iowa State – Saturday, September 27th @ 7:00 PM – FOX

Line Iowa State +21

O/U 69

I have been dreading this day all week. How do I play this game? Which side do I choose? If I side with Baylor, I am almost forced to root against my team. Sure, some may say it is merely padding my cup for the inevitable punch to the nuts this game could provide, but Homey don’t play dat.

If I side with Iowa State, I risk a double dose of misery. Homey don’t play dat either.

The only logical choice here is to play the Over and hope for a shootout. If Baylor’s offense goes wild, so be it. If we hold their offense to 40 points or less, I can consider that a moral victory regardless of what the final outcome of the game is. Homey do play dat.

My bet - $11 Over 69

Parlay Pick 4

UNLV @ San Diego State – SDSU -16.5

I refuse to have a parlay card that doesn’t include a bet against UNLV. It is good business and also cathartic.

Missouri @ South Carolina – ‘Cocks -5

Missouri is apparently not very good this year. South Carolina? Eh, not sure, but certainly better than 5 at home against Missouri.

Arkansas @ Texas A&M – TAMU -8.5

This line opened at 15.5 and has moved down considerably since then. I’m not a buyer of Arkansas. They got handled by Auburn in their season opener and haven’t played anyone, other than Taco Tech, since. I am a believer in the Aggies.

Boise State @ Air Force – Air Force +12.5

Air Force has traditionally been a tough out at home. Boise isn’t the same far from the tranquil blue of their home stadium.

Taco Tech…brilliant!