It's unfortunate that Monday night's game between Iowa State and Texas doesn't have that certain panache that it appeared it could have had a few short days ago. A pair of Saturday set backs for each team certainly lessened the luster of tonight's tussle, but this is an enormous game for each program nonetheless.
Both the Cyclones and Longhorns have spent time in the top 10 throughout the year, but the Horns have now lost three of their last five and Iowa State is looking to recover from an embarrassing road loss to Texas Tech. In many ways, this game could represent a turning point for each respective team. At .500 in league play, Texas needs to make up some serious ground and scoring a road win in Ames would do just that. For the Cyclones, the loss in Lubbock means that the margin for error going forward has become razor thin, meaning that protecting home court is an absolute must.
It's probably a little too early in the conference season to say that desperation has sunk in for either of these programs, but entering the second third of the league round-robin, it's getting close. Win and stay alive. Lose and...well, kiss your conference title hopes goodbye.
Texas will bring one of the best front lines in the country into Hilton Coliseum on Monday night and with that, the conversation always turns to two things; rebounding and points in the paint.
As you might expect, Texas is an elite unit on the offensive glass (6th nationally) and their block rate of 19.7% is the second best mark in the country. The Horns also rank third in all of college basketball in defensive effective field goal percentage (39.7%).
Iowa State is going to have their hands full generating clean looks inside and will have to be much better than Saturday's 6-31 performance from deep if they plan to keep Rick Barnes' team honest on the interior.
Defensively, the Cyclones will have to find a way to limit the interior penetration of Isaiah Taylor, who's among the best in the conference at taking opponents off the dribble. Taylor leads a balanced Longhorn attack with 12.7 points per game while also dishing out 3.2 assists per contest.
In Myles Turner and Jonathan Holmes, Barnes has a pair of lengthy combo forward that can hurt you both inside and from the perimeter. Turner has become a much bigger part of the offense of late and the 6'11" freshman is establishing himself as one of the most difficult match ups in the conference.
For Iowa State to win this game, it boils down to getting back to what they do best; space the floor and share the ball. Texas will likely try to slow the pace and muck things up on Monday night, meaning that Iowa State has to capitalize on transition opportunities.
In half-court sets, the Cyclones figure to see a lot of zone, meaning that moving without the ball and swinging the ball from side to side will be key. Georges Niang will need to set up shop around the free throw line and his decision-making ability will determine just how well Iowa State can execute offensively.
So Who Wins?
There are two teams left on the schedule that have a legitimate shot of knocking off Iowa State at home and Texas is one of them (Oklahoma being the other).
Outside of the West Virginia and Baylor games, the Cyclones have done an admirable job of limiting second-chance opportunities and actually lead the country in assists per game.
This Iowa State team is flawed and at this point, we're still learning what to expect from this group each night out, but going back to the well of good will at home has been just the elixir this program has needed over the last three years and despite Texas' size, I can't see Iowa State dropping this game at home.
Iowa State 77 - Texas 73
Game Notes
Tip: 8 PM CST
TV: ESPN with Brent Musberger and Fran Fraschilla on the call
Radio: Cyclone Radio Network
Cyclones.com Game Notes: Available here
Texas SB Nation Sites: Barking Carnival and Burnt Orange Nation (yes, they get two sites).
Three Questions
1) Is Cameron Ridley really a dinosaur in a man's body?
2) Which Texas player is going to score 20+ points tonight? (because we all know it's going to happen)
3) Who ya got and why?