Last week was, well, it wasn't good. Neither on paper, nor on the field.
Week 6 Record ATS: 0-5
Overall Record ATS: 18-16
Beginning Bank: $504
New Bank: $328
Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Kansas Jayhawks, Saturday, October 17th @ 11:00 AM - FS1
Line: TTU -31
After a record-setting weekend in Lubbock, the Red Raiders travel north to the friendly fields of Lawrence, Kansas, to face a Jayhawk team even less intimidating than last week's pushover.
Patrick Mahomes threw for 428 yards and five touchdowns against what was considered to be a decent to good Iowa State secondary. Kansas yielded 370 yards through the air to Memphis — 12th in the nation in passing yards per game — in mid-September. Tech averages over 100 passing yards per game more than that.
Last week, Baylor scored 86% of points necessary to cover my bet ( over 77) in the first 38:14 of play. I felt comfortable, as letting off the gas is not something Art Briles is known for. Yet, 21 minutes and change later, there I sat, $110 poorer.
This week, I'm going to take the damn points, even if the Red Raiders are only averaging 35 points per game away from the ass pit of Texas. It's Kansas!
My bet: $22 TTU -31
West Virginia Mountaineers @ (2) Baylor Bears, Saturday, October 17th @ 11:00 AM - FOX
Line: Baylor -21.5
West Virginia's defense, heralded at the start of the season for their ability to keep opposing teams out of the end zone, has surrendered 77 points over the past two weekends to a pair of conference foes from the state of Oklahoma. During that same period, their offensive output has also been cut almost in half; dropping from 43 to 25 points per game. West Virginia's on-again, off-again relationship with Dana Holgorsen is troubled once more as the Mountaineer's look for consistent conference play.
Baylor likely hasn't forgotten their lone regular season loss last year — a loss that kept them from an inevitable early exit from last season's inaugural college football playoff. This year, the Bears become the hunters as they seek revenge and a spot in the playoff committee's heart.
My bet: $11/Over 75
(19) Oklahoma Sooners @ Kansas State Wildcats, Saturday, October 17th @ 2:30 PM - ABC
Line: OU -4
Kansas State showed how difficult it is to beat the Wizard on his home turf last Saturday, taking No. 2, TCU, down to the wire in Manhattan. If not for the other purple team possessing the best college quarterback in the game today, the Horned Frogs almost certainly would have failed to overcome their 35-17 halftime deficit. And without his partner in crime Josh Doctson, there is little chance for a 55-yard game-winning pass-and-catch with just 1:10 left on the clock.
Now Oklahoma, a write-in candidate for a conference champion until saving Coach Strong's job last Saturday in the Cotton Bowl, boom their way into town looking to avenge last season's loss in Norman.
I have not had a good feel for this Wildcat team all season — I am 2-2 on my picks involving K-State — and it isn't any easier this week given each team created more questions than they answered last weekend. Surprisingly, however, Bob Stoops has never lost a game in Bill Snyder Family Stadium. So, let's go with that.
My bet: $22/ OU -4
(3) TCU Horned Frogs @ Iowa State Cyclones, Saturday, October 17th @ 6:00 PM - ESPN2
Line: TCU -20.5
There are two ways Iowa State wins this game: keep TCU's prolific offense off the field and eliminate errors.
My bet: $22/Over