Week 7 Record ATS: 2-2
Overall Record ATS: 20-18
Beginning Bank: $328
New Bank: $314
Iowa State Cyclones @ (2) Baylor Bears - Saturday, October 24th @ 11:00 AM - ESPN
Line: Baylor -37
"The back motors of the ship are holding it just... just enough to keep it from — it burst into flames! It burst into flames, and it's falling, it's crashing! Watch it, watch it! Get out of the way!" – 1937 radio broadcast of the Hindenburg Disaster.
For the third week in a row, Iowa State faces one of the nation's top offenses. This week it is No. 2 Baylor, whose top-ranked offense is averaging 63.8 points through its first six games. Seth Russell leads the strike-quick-strike-often offense with a 63.2% completion rate and 27 passing touchdowns. The Cyclones, seemingly unfit for such a combustible combination of speed and talent, have allowed 111 combined points the last two weeks.
A rainy day in Waco should slow the action down some. I hope.
Oh, the humanity.
My bet: $22 Under 78
Kansas State Wildcats @ Texas Longhorns - Saturday, October 24th @ 9:00 AM - FS1
Line: Texas -6.5
The last time we saw Chuck, he was surfing a swarm of happy Longhorns after their stunning upset of then-10th ranked Oklahoma in the Red River Hoedown. Jubilation and relief were evident on the embattled coach's face as the win lightened the spirits off his 2-4 team.
Bill Snyder was not as fortunate last weekend in his home stadium, losing to No. 19 Oklahoma in humiliating fashion, 55-0. The loss bothered the 76 year old coach so much he wrote an apology letter to K-State students following the worst home shutout in school history, vowing to do a better job preparing the players in the future.
The Wildcats, losers of their last three games, have played relatively well in their two road games this season, covering lines at UTSA and Oklahoma State. Still, it seems every single player on scholarship may be injured for this game and Texas is starting to find its groove just in time for a visit to Ames next weekend.
My bet: $22/UT -6.5
Texas Tech Red Raiders @ (17) Oklahoma Sooners - Saturday, October 24th @ 2:30 PM - ABC/ESPN2
Line: Oklahoma -14
Having the nation's second best offense has done little for a Red Raider team that almost refuses to play defense. On the road, Patrick Mahomes' offense has faltered some, managing only 54% of the points scored on their home field. Oklahoma's defense will be the toughest test yet for Cool Hand Kliff, as it's allowing just 21.6 points at home.
The Sooners, playing just their second home game this month, are looking to build on last week's dismantling of a broken Wildcat squad. Texas Tech transfer Baker Mayfield leads the 18th ranked offense with 19 passing and 4 rushing touchdowns.
If you wanted to parlay the over with an Oklahoma cover, I wouldn't be mad.
My bet: $22/OU -14
Kansas Jayhawks @ Oklahoma State Cowboys - Saturday, October 24th @ 2:30 PM - FS1
Line: OSU -34.5
The Cowboys are tied for first place in the conference after opening the 2015 season with six straight victories. However, it could be argued that Oklahoma State sits in this position without ever really having been tested — their best competitor so far being a West Virginia team collapsing upon itself in conference play for the fourth straight season. That changes after this game when the Cowboys face TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma during the month of November.
On paper, Kansas gave Texas Tech a game in Lawrence last weekend. However, if you've been following along, the Red Raiders have no defense and do not play well on the road. Kansas scored 20 points in the second half to keep things interesting, but I do not believe the last place Jayhawks are much improved from the team we saw in Ames. Oklahoma State will play defense, and I will be greatly surprised if David Beaty's team scores more than seven in Stillwater.
My bet: $22/Under 60.5
Narber's Best ATS Bets – "M Week"
After looking through this week's lines, I discovered I like a lot of matchups in which teams that start with "M" are playing at home. Weird, right? Let's do this.
Last week: no bets, saved money, probably smart
Overall: 11-14-0 (but second place in the WRNL pick'em league!)
Saturday, 2:30 PM – North Texas @ Marshall (-31): North Texas is winless since Nov. 22 last year, 0-5 ATS in their last five road trips, and they travel to Marshall for the Thundering Herd's homecoming. The Herd are on a five-game tear (4-1 ATS) behind a balanced offensive attack and a stout defense, particularly against the pass. Look no further than the Mean Green's -33.17 point differential. This could get far uglier in Huntington than just 31 points.
Saturday, 2:30 PM – Penn State @ Maryland (+7.5): These two teams average a combined 47 points per game, and the total has gone under in six of Penn State's last seven games. I like picking home underdogs to cover in low-scoring affairs, and I think that's what we'll see in College Park this weekend. Penn State is also just 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games. I like Maryland, off a bye, under new leadership, to cover easily here.
Saturday, 2:00 PM – Toledo (-9.5) @ Massachusetts: UMass has lost seven of eight and takes on a ranked Toledo team that's perfect ATS in its last five road games dating back to last season. The Minutemen have looked awful lately, putting up just 10 points in a home loss to Kent State and allowing 62 to Bowling Green the week prior. Nine and a half seems like an awfully small line here. At nearly 35 points per game, Matt Campbell's offense should be able to more than double it. Rockets by at least 3 TD — easiest pick of the week.
Saturday, 11:00 AM – Clemson (-3.5) @ Miami FL: Clemson is 3-1 ATS against Miami in the last four installments of this ACC rivalry, and 3.5 should be a fairly easy cover for an undefeated Tigers squad with its sights set on the College Football Playoff. Oddly, both teams tend to play to the under despite my expectations for this to be a pass-happy barnburner. Deshaun Watson and Brad Kaaya are two extremely talented young QBs so from an entertainment perspective, I can't wait for this one. I think Clemson's pass defense (168 ypg allowed) and Miami's turnover differential (-2.17 per game) will be enough for a Tigers cover.
Saturday, 6:00 PM – Texas A&M @ Mississippi (-6): After losing to Memphis last week, this is an anger cover — nothing more. Ole Miss big at home.