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Betting the Big 12: Sooner Showdown in Waco

Another big matchup in the Big 12's backloaded schedule as #12 Oklahoma travels to Waco to take on #6 Baylor Bears.

Week 10 Record ATS: 2-3

Overall Record ATS: 26-25

Beginning Bank: $295

P/L: $ 66

New Bank: $ 361

Thank you, Kansas for sucking so badly. You turned a losing weekend into a profitable one.

Kansas Jayhawks @ TCU Horned Frogs - Saturday, November 14th @ 11:00 AM - FS1

Line: TCU -45

O/U: 71.5

TCU's defense at home has been dominate. Excluding their game against a spunky SMU team back in September, the Horned Frogs have allowed only 24 points inside Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth.

Kansas, hoping not to add to its 38 game road losing streak (it will), managed only 14 points against a deplorable Rutgers defense when the two played early this season in New Jersey.

This will not end well for the Jayhawks, but I can almost guarantee there will not be 71 points scored on Saturday unless Trevone Boykin scores 65 of them himself.

My bet: $110/Under 71 also $110 TCU -45

Texas Longhorns @ West Virginia Mountaineers - Saturday, November 14th @ 11:00 AM - ESPNU

Line: WVU -8.5

O/U: 54.5

I spent 40 minutes this morning trying to find the proper adjective to describe Texas' offense on the road this season, yet failed to find one that perfectly encapsulated the complete futility. So, I made one up.


This is as close as I could get to describing a team that has scored only 10 points over three true road games (Cotton Bowl was a neutral site), and were shutout in Ames by a 3-5 Iowa State team. I think I did well.

West Virginia finally got back on track last weekend, thanks to another team that has problems getting the score up in unfamiliar surroundings. Both coaches need this win to remain hopeful of bowl eligibility and job security at the end of this season.

My bet: $11/WVU -8.5

Kansas State Wildcats @ Texas Tech Red Raiders - Saturday, November 14th @ 2:30 PM - FS1

Line: Texas Tech -5.5

O/U: 71.5

If there is a negative to the Big 12's back-loaded schedule this year, one that produces some very exciting matchups with playoff implications, it's that we also have to endure games like this one.

K-State is noticeably down this season, but have still somehow managed to be competitive against the upper echelon of the conference, save Oklahoma. This will be just the fourth road game for the Wildcats, who are searching for their first conference win. Lubbock is not town to try to get lucky.

For the Red Raiders, this will be their final home game of 2015 and they need one more win to become eligible for post season play. They wrap up their season November 26th in Austin, where the Longhorns are a significantly tougher opponent, so expect the gun-slinging-tortilla-tossers to jump in front of the Wildcats early and dare them to keep pace.

My bet: $11/TTU -5.5

Oklahoma State Cowboys @ THE Iowa State Cyclones - Saturday, November 14th @ 2:30 PM - ESPN

Line: ISU +14

O/U: 61

Oklahoma State has no business losing this game. They have been consistent at home and on the road from both sides of the ball, and dominated previously unbeaten, TCU, 49-29 last weekend in Stillwater. They have a top 20 offense and a defense that allows just 391 yards per game. Yes, their schedule has been questionable and their victory over Texas will be discussed for years to come, but they have done the work necessary to stay unbeaten and their path to the championship is filled with potential.

There is nothing that makes me believe this game will be their first loss of the season.

Nothing except for 2011.

My bet: $22/ISU +14

Oklahoma Sooners @ Baylor Bears - Saturday, November 14th @ 7:00 PM - ABC

Line: Baylor -2.5

O/U: 77

In what is by far the best matchup of the day, Oklahoma travels to Waco to take on the undefeated Baylor Bears. This series has a lopsided history, with Oklahoma winning the first 15 match-ups of the Big 12 era, but Baylor has won three of the last four meetings including last year's drubbing in Norman, 48-14.

Oklahoma has been on a tear since losing to hated rival, Texas, last month; bloodying their opponents along the way. But, those opponents have a combined 4-20 record in conference play, so maybe that isn't the best metric to use when judging this Oklahoma team.

Baylor enters the game with a lofty 6th place ranking in the latest CFB Poll. Their road through conference play, however, hasn't exactly been a gauntlet either, facing only the opponents Oklahoma has plus one-win West Virginia. This is the first of three exams - their only one at home - Baylor must pass if they are to gain admission into the CFB Playoffs, so they better hope their true-freshman quarterback , Jarrett Stidham, is ready for the pressure.

My bet: $11/BU -2.5

Narber's Best ATS Bets

Last week: 4-1

Season to Date: 19-16-0

Saturday, 11:00 AM – Pittsburgh (+3) @ Duke: Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games and Duke is coming off two consecutive losses in which it allowed 96 total points and 809 yards through the air. This was a three-point game last year and in 2013. Why not another?

Saturday, 2:30 PM – Syracuse (+28) @ Clemson: Vegas CyClown will be the first to tell you to keep a close eye on this one. Neither of us believe Clemson walks out of the Carrier Dome with its first loss, but it will be much closer than the 28-point line. Syracuse has covered four of its last five games at the dome and is losing conference games by an average of just 8.8 points per, despite being a paltry 3-6. The Tigers have won their last two games by just 10 and 15, respectively.

Saturday, 3:00 PM – Georgia State @ Texas State (-5.5): Georgia State has lost 15 of its last 17 road games and dropped this matchup at home by 23 last year. Texas State is 4-2 ATS in its last six home games and should cover 5.5 points easily on the arm of QB Tyler Jones against a bad GSU secondary.

Saturday, 6:00 PM – Temple (-2.5) @ South Florida: I'm riding the Owls until they give me a reason not to. Winners of nine of 10, 5-1 ATS in their last six, undefeated on the road... Two and a half points should be a cakewalk.

Saturday, 6:30 PM – BYU @ Missouri (+6.5): Is this game even happening? If so, give me the inspired, emotional home team straight up. There may be fewer than 30 total points scored in this game, and that favors Mizzou. BYU nearly lost to San Jose State last week, so I'm not so sure the Tigers will get the Cougs' best effort on Saturday.