Welcome to Week 12.
This week, Vegas CyClown is out wandering the Nevada desert, so your friendly neighborhood almost-first-place-in-the-pick'em pool betting savant is here to save the day. Whether or not VC is using his (fake) money to purchase (fake) strippers and (fake) cocaine remains to be seen, but let's just hope he's back in one piece next week.
For the record, I'm 22-18 ATS (as it pertains to this running piece) and 131-100 in Top 25 and Big 12 games on the year.
Call your bookie and let's get right to it.
Iowa State Cyclones @ Kansas State Wildcats – Saturday, November 21 @ 11:00 AM – FS1
Line: Kansas State (-6)
Every year is "the year" for Iowa State to win this game, and every year we are wrong. Neither team is doing well against the spread, particularly in their respective home/road locations in this one — the Cyclones are a dismal 1-5 ATS in their last six away from Ames.
I'm avoiding the spread altogether and will instead turn my attention to the over/under. As we all know by now, Wally Burnham is holding nearly every conference opponent this season under its scoring average. Furthermore, the total has gone under in 11 of ISU's last 14 games. Prior to Texas Tech, Kansas State was averaging 11 ppg in its previous three games.
My bet: $110/Under 54
West Virginia Mountaineers @ Kansas Jayhawks – Saturday, November 21 @ 11:00 AM – FSN
Line: West Virginia (-28)
Kansas showed me basically everything I needed to see in a 23-17 knockdown drag-out with TCU last week. There's no way this thing gets to 59 points. The total has gone under in a whopping 14 of West Virginia's last 18 games as well. Granted, the Jayhawks defense stood out last week mostly as a result of attrition among the Horned Frogs' offense, but momentum is a strange and very real thing in this sport.
Neither team is scoring at a very high clip. I think a game in the high 40s or low 50s should be the expectation here.
My bet: $11/Under 59 and $11/Kansas (+28)
Baylor Bears @ Oklahoma State Cowboys – Saturday, November 21 @ 6:30 PM – FOX
Line: Oklahoma State (-1)
Don't you get the feeling this is the game where things just start to get royally fucked up for the Big 12? Barnburner in Stillwater, big game for the S.S. Stidham, three-way tie atop the standings, chaos on Tuesday, and lots of #MADONLINE.
My bet: Parlay: $44/Baylor (+1) and Over 77.5
TCU Horned Frogs @ Oklahoma Sooners – Saturday, November 21 @ 7:00 PM – ABC
Vegas is not accepting bets yet due to the unknown status of Trevone Boykin. There will likely be a late line released during the day on Saturday when it's revealed who will be handing the QB duties for TCU. Josh Doctson, however, is known not to be playing, and likely won't be until the postseason.
We'll see how things shake out Saturday morning, but I like about 90-95 points scored in this game and Oklahoma to cover. They've done so in four of their last five at home. The Horned Frogs, meanwhile, are 1-4 ATS in their last five on the road. Trevone Boykin will either be out or ailing and I like the Sooners to take advantage on their home turf with a College Football Playoff committee to impress.
And make no mistake, Baker Mayfield has a legitimate chance to insert himself into the Heisman conversation with a decent finish to the season.
My bet: Oklahoma to cover