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Betting the Big 12: Week 3

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Week 2 Recap

You can now read the weekly recaps in their new home.

Record ATS: 4-2

Beginning Bank: $441

P/L: $34

New Bank: $475

Tulsa @ (16)Oklahoma - Saturday, September 19th @ 11:00 AM - FS1

Line: OU -30.5

O/U: 71.5

Tulsa enters this matchup 2-0 following back to back wins over Florida Atlantic and New Mexico. During their first two games, the Golden Hurricanes (which sounds like the title to some horrible fetish video) have averaged 43.5 points per game and over 600 yards of total offense. Their defense, on the other hand, has surrendered 476.5 yards and 32.5 points per game.

Oklahoma, still recovering from a stunning comeback down in good ol' Rocky Top, could have their hands full if they do not give this match-up their full attention.

My bet: $11/Tulsa +30.5 (with all due respect to the Over)

Louisiana Tech @ Kansas State - Saturday, September 19th @ 2:00 PM - FSN

Line: K-State -9.5

O/U: 50

Skip Holtz is apparently still roaming the FBS sidelines, this time as the head coach of the Louisiana Tech. The less lispy Holtz has been at this Conference USA member institution since 2013 winning the conference championship last season (9-5, 7-1). This season, the Bulldogs are 1-1 having lost their last game at Western Kentucky.

Kansas State dominated their match-up with UTSA last weekend, controlling both the time of possession and the line of scrimmage - 418 yards for the Wildcats to only 229 for the Roadrunners' reasonably prolific offense. I'm still holding out hope the magic is running low in Manhattan, but it looks like the Wizard has enough juice for at least one more mystifying year.

My bet: $22/K-State -9.5

UTSA @ (25)Oklahoma State - Saturday, September 19th @ 2:30 PM - FS1

Line: OSU -24.5

O/U: 55.5

UTSA faces their third straight P5 opponent and the Big 12 for the second week in a row. K-State managed to limit the Roadrunners' running and passing attack - each very successful against the Pac-12's, Arizona - to 229 total yards in San Antonio. Oklahoma State's defense has allowed an average of 563 yards in their first two games.

Oklahoma State has yet to live up to bettor's expectations, going 0-2 ATS (with two accompanying Unders) to start 2015. It may be some time before the Cowboys develop into the team everyone expected to see, and until that time, I don't feel confident giving so many points to a very competent opponent.

My bet: $22/UTSA +24.5

Texas Tech @ Arkansas - Saturday, September 19th @ 6:00 PM - ESPNU

Line: Tech +12

O/U: 70.5

If you are a fan of transitive property, then this is the first of two match-ups this weekend that will provide insight into Iowa State's chances in Lubbock on October 10th.

Arkansas, and their Hawkeye-loving-pig-sooie-calling head coach, was humiliated by Toledo in Fayetteville last weekend; somehow losing 16-12 while outgaining the Rockets 515-318 total yards.

Texas Tech spent last the first two weeks of the season combining to score 128 points. While offensively impressive, and certainly entertaining to the fan, the Red Raider's defense has been nearly non-existent and have allowed an average of 272 yards rushing per game to UTEP and Sam Houston State.

Not a good stat when facing the Razorbacks.

My bet: $22/Arkansas -12

California @ Texas - Saturday, September 19th @ 6:30 PM - FOX

Line: Texas +6.5

O/U: 58

In the past two weeks, the Longhorns have promoted their offensive line coach, demoted their starting quarterback, and fired their Athletic Director. All while struggling to a 1-1 record. Nobody in Austin can be feeling overly confident in their positions right now and that could have a serious impact on teenagers playing a game.

California strolls into town sporting a shiny 2-0 record after comfortably winning their opening games against Grambling State and San Diego State.

There isn't a lot of confidence deep in the heart of Texas these days, and that should be a benefit to the travelling Bears.

My bet: $22/Cal -6.5

SMU @ (3)TCU - Saturday, September 19th @ 7:00 PM FSN

Line: TCU -37.5

O/U: 66.5

All concerns about the Horned Frogs offense in 2015 were squashed when TCU scored 70 points against the unfairly overmatched Lumberjacks of Stephen F. Austin (no relation to Mr. A. Smith after all).

If you want to believe in such things; TCU will be looking to make a transitive statement of their own during the first half of their matchup with cross town rival, SMU. Baylor led the Mustangs at half by one touchdown during their Week 1 matchup. TCU may look to triple that number.

My bet: $11/Over 66.5

Iowa State @ Toledo - Saturday, September 19th @ 7:00 PM ESPN News

Line: Iowa State +7.5

O/U: 58

A collapsing performance over the last 8 or so minutes against a good Iowa team last week did not send me into a panic and I still believe there is good to be had this season. Toledo won, on the road, against a good Arkansas squad and the public has pushed this line from its opening at +6.5 to as high as +8, showing little faith in the travelling team.

But the final score does not always truthfully represent the quality of the game played. It will be difficult going for Iowa State, but this feels like a must win game for Paul Rhoads and his Cyclones.

My bet: $11/Iowa State +7.5

(5)Baylor - Next Game 9-26 vs Rice
Kansas - Next Game 9-26 @ Rutgers
West Virginia - Next Game 9-26 vs Maryland

Narber's Best ATS Bets

Last week: (3-2-0)
Overall: (5-5-0)
Memphis (-4) @ Bowling Green: Memphis is 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread in its last five road games. Say what you will about Kansas and Missouri State, but the Tigers are averaging nearly 60 points a game through the first two weeks of the season. Both Memphis and BGSU have hit the over in every game they've played since Week 10 of last year. I like the Tigers and a healthy rushing attack (299 yards/game) to cover the three points in a barnburner.
Mississippi (+8.5) @ Alabama: The Rebels are 1-9 in their last 10 games against Alabama — but — they covered the spread in seven of those those nine losses. Nick Saban may very well chalk up another W in this rivalry, but you better believe Ole Miss (and its 75 friggin' points per game) will find a way to make it close.
Temple (-9) @ Massachusetts: This is easy. If you go away from home and beat Penn State by 17 and Cincinnati by 8, then covering nine points against a UMass team that just allowed 48 to Colorado should be a piece of cake. Jahad Thomas should run all over a putrid front seven for the Minutemen, leading Temple to a 3-0 start to the season.
Colorado @ Colorado State (-1): Always, always, always pick the home team to cover in this rivalry. Colorado has four total road wins since 2011. CSU is 9-2 in its last 11 games at home — 4-1 ATS in its last five games at home.
Kent State @ Minnesota (-23): Thirteen days ago, Kent State lost 52-3 to Illinois. This is free money, folks.