This has not been an ideal start to the season for me having lost money two out of the first three weeks. Still, there is plenty of time and money to rebound.
Week 3 Record ATS 3-4
Overall Record ATS 10-9
Beginning Bank: $475
New Bank: $417
Kansas @ Rutgers - Saturday, September 26th @ 11:00 AM - BTN
Line: Kansas +14
Kansas' best remaining opportunities for wins this season occur over the next two road games. Rutgers is up first and the Big Ten's newest member enters the contest as a two touchdown favorite.
Rutgers sits 1-2 on the season, their lone win coming against FCS cupcake, Norfolk State. Losses to Washington State and Penn State failed to offer even the comforts of moral victory to Scarlet Knight's fans as neither team is worth a crap. Off the field has been equally atrocious for the home team as their head coach serves a three game suspension for improper contact with a player's professor.
Games like this are why 11:00 AM kickoffs exist.
My bet: $22/Rutgers -14
Rice @ Baylor - Saturday, September 26th @ 2:00 PM - FSN
Line: Baylor -34.5
Baylor has started the season 0-2 ATS due in large part to a seeming disinterest in playing defense. After surrendering 21 first half points to SMU in Week 1, the Bears allowed lowly Lamar 31 total points in Waco.
While Baylor's defense has allowed 26 ppg over their first two games, Rice's offense has averaged 40.7 ppg in their three opening contests, with their lowest output being in their road loss to Texas (28).
This one should be a high scoring affair.
My bet: $22/Over 76
Maryland @ West Virginia - Saturday, September 26th @ 2:00 PM - FS1
Line: WVU -16.5
LaWest Virginia beat the Terrapins in Maryland with a game winning 47 yard field goal as time expired. Clint Trickett threw for 511 yards (216 distributed to favorite wideout, Kevin White) and 4 touchdowns on the day as the Mountaineers led 28-6 midway through the second quarter. Maryland would score two late first half touchdowns to narrow the margin to 8 by halftime. A back and forth second half made for an entertaining game between these two programs.
Gone are Trickett and White, replaced by Skyler Howard and receiver-to-be-named-later. However, this is not an offense to be overlooked, scoring almost 43 points per game.
Maryland is 2-1 with a 48-27 loss to Bowling Green in week 2 at home. This will be their first road trip of 2015.
My bet: $11/WVU -16.5
Oklahoma State @ Texas - Saturday, September 26th @ 2:30 PM - FS1
Line: OSU -3
The first of two conference matchups has Oklahoma State travelling south to face a resurgent Texas squad.
New blood at quarterback has fueled optimism once again in the Longhorns, and rightfully so as the previously sputtering offense has averaged 43 points per game since Jerrod Heard took control. Still, the Texas defense has done little to help the team win and rank 113th overall, surrendering an average of 512.7 yards per game.
Oklahoma State will be another difficult challenge, and the fourth top 30 offense, for the Longhorns. Led by sophomore quarterback, Mason Rudolph, the Cowboys have averaged 330.7 passing yards and 178 rushing yards over their first three games of the season. An improved defense will provide a true test for Jerrod Heard's Big 12 readiness.
My bet: $11/ OSU -3
TCU @ Texas Tech - Saturday, September 26th @3:45 PM - FOX
Line: TCU -6.5
What happens when two powerhouse offenses meet on the gridiron? The odds-makers set a ridiculously high total.
As much as I hate admitting it, Texas Tech has exceeded my admittedly low expectations so far this season. After a two touchdown victory over Sam Houston State in the season opener, the Red Raiders won convincingly against UTEP then shocked many (or maybe just me) with their win last weekend over a slumping Arkansas program on the road.
Patrick Mahomes II leads Kliff's Air Raid attack style offense with over 1000 yards passing in three games. Add to those numbers his 129 yards and 4 touchdowns on the ground, and this sophomore quarterback should be getting some serious national attention if he can maintain the pace.
Their defense, however, is ranked 107th and will likely lose them more than their share of games.
TCU's season has been almost as unexpected, starting with a close victory at Minnesota to begin the year. After that, Trevone Boykin and the Horned Frog offense found their footing and have compiled a staggering 598.7 yards of offense per game.
This should be a fun do-not-miss-at-any-cost game. But stay away from that over. It's a trap.
My bet: $11/ TCU -6.5
Narber's Best ATS Bets
Last week: (1-4-0)
Missouri (+2.5) @ Kentucky: Since the start of the 2013 season, Mizzou is 12-2 away from home. Despite a poor performance last week at UConn, I like their chances to win this game outright. Kentucky is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games and has just two home conference wins since 2012.
Army (+1.5) @ Eastern Michigan: Army may be 0-3 to start the year but the Black Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last five games and 4-1 straight up in their five all-time meetings with Eastern Michigan. EMU is good for about two wins a season (seriously, they've gone 2-10 each of the past three years), and I don't see one here. I like Army straight up by a field goal behind solid defensive play — something this matchup has lacked in years past. For what it's worth: Army's three losses thus far have been by 2, 5 and 3.
Appalachian State @ Old Dominion (+8): App State and Old Dominion have never met, and eight points is a lot to cover on the road to a foreign opponent. ODU has won five of six dating back to last season, and the Mountaineers are typically putrid on the road, winning just four of their last 20. Both teams have a tendency to play to the under, which leads me to believe the Monarchs can keep this close.
Ohio @ Minnesota (-10.5): Still kicking myself for Minnesota (-24) over Kent State last week. That contest somehow ended 10-7 Gophers, and I'm basically just counting on a bounce back here. Minnesota works out the kinks and wins by two touchdowns.
Boise State (-2.5) @ Virginia: Two and a half is a shockingly small amount of points to cover against a Virginia team that's 2-7 in its last nine games and just eked by William & Mary at home by six. Boise State has won 11 of 12 and tends to play to the over on the road. I don't see any reason the Broncos can't go to Charlottesville and win by at least a touchdown here.