Monte Morris and the Looming NBA Draft Decision

The end of the 2015-16 basketball season is going to feature a mass exodus for Iowa State. There's no questioning that. Gone will be All-American Georges Niang, 2015 Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Jameel McKay, and key forward Abdel Nader.

However, the thing that all Cyclone basketball fans will have on their minds heading into the offseason is whether star point guard Monte Morris will come back for his senior season, or leave school to pursue a life playing basketball in the NBA.

A variety of factors will go into Morris' decision. There's still a couple months of basketball to be played depending on how far Iowa State goes in the postseason, and during that time, Morris could drastically affect his draft stock via play on the court or his actions off it. At the moment, we can only use factors we know to predict what will happen.

There's valid arguments from both sides regarding the matter. Typically, you'll hear people say that Morris should come back for his last year because he needs to bulk up and improve his defense or he won't be able to make it playing against the bigger, stronger and quicker guards in the NBA (guys like Russell Westbrook, John Wall and Kyrie Irving immediately come to mind).

However, there's also a case to be made that Morris is the best point guard in the toughest conference in college basketball, and that could be enough to prove that he's ready to make the jump.

Regardless of which side you back, the common consensus is that in order to warrant leaving, Morris must aim to be drafted in the first round to make his payout worth it from a salary and guaranteed contract standpoint. The last pick of the first round is guaranteed a salary of $976,300 in their first season and $1,020,200 their second season, with the team holding options on the contract from the third season on.

Meanwhile, being drafted in the second round means the team gets to pick the player's salary, which could even be the NBA's minimum of $543,471 for a player with no years of service.

Knowing that, let's analyze Morris' situation with our eyes set on the first round.

Size

Below is a chart of the players who've been drafted in the first round of the draft since the 2010 season. Included is their measurements (in shoes) at the NBA combine preceding the draft of their respective years. At the top, you'll see Morris' measurements listed for comparison, as well as the averages of all first rounders and averages for players selected in the lottery (top 14 picks of each draft).

Note that this, and all other charts in this article, only include NCAA point guards and no international prospects.

Player	Year	College	Pick Number	Height (Inches)	Weight (Pounds)
Average 1st Rounder	N/A	N/A	1st Round	75.2	189.4
Average Lottery Pick	N/A	N/A	Lottery	75.4	191.9
Monte Morris	2016	Iowa State	N/A	75	175.0
D'Angelo Russell	2015	Ohio State	2	77	193.0
Cameron Payne	2015	Murray State	14	74	183.0
Terry Rozier	2015	Louisville	16	74	190.0
Jerian Grant	2015	Notre Dame	19	76	198.0
Delon Wright	2015	Utah	20	78	181.0
Tyus Jones	2015	Duke	24	74	185.0
Marcus Smart	2014	Oklahoma State	6	75	227.0
Elfrid Payton	2014	Louisiana-Lafayette	10	76	185.0
Tyler Ennis	2014	Syracuse	18	75	182.0
Shabazz Napier	2014	UConn	24	73	175.0
Trey Burke	2013	Michigan	9	73	187.0
C.J. McCollum	2013	Lehigh	10	75	197.0
Tyler Ennis	2013	Syracuse	11	78	184.0
Shane Larkin	2013	Miami	18	72	171.0
Damian Lillard	2012	Weber State	6	75	189.0
Kendall Marshall	2012	North Carolina	13	76	198.0
Tony Wroten	2012	Washington	25	78	203.0
Marquis Teague	2012	Kentucky	29	74	180.0
Kyrie Irving	2011	Duke	1	76	191.0
Brandon Knight	2011	Kentucky	8	76	177.0
Kemba Walker	2011	UConn	9	73	184.0
Jimmer Fredette	2011	BYU	10	75	196.0
Nolan Smith	2011	Duke	21	76	188.0
Reggie Jackson	2011	Boston College	24	75	200.0
Norris Cole	2011	Cleveland State	28	74	174.0
Cory Joseph	2011	Texas	29	75	186.0
John Wall	2010	Kentucky	1	76	196.0
Eric Bledsoe	2010	Kentucky	18	74	192.0
Avery Bradley	2010	Texas	19	75	180.0
Greivis Vásquez	2010	Maryland	28	79	211.0

At 6-foot-3, Morris is right near the average height for point guards drafted in the past few years.

However, weighing in at just 175 pounds (according to his Cyclones.com profile) doesn't bode well for the junior, as it's roughly 14-16 pounds less than the average first rounder. Only Shabazz Napier, Shane Larkin and Norris Cole have been drafted weighing 175 pounds or less since 2010, and all three of those guys are shorter/stockier than Morris.

This backs up the theory that spending another offseason in Ames bulking up would be a benefit to the Flint, Michigan native.

Before moving on, let's also compare Morris' size to other current point guard prospects in the country.

Player	Year	College	Pick Number	Height (Inches)	Weight (Pounds)
Average 2016 PG	N/A	N/A	N/A	74.7	192.1
Monte Morris	2016	Iowa State	N/A	75	175.0
Kris Dunn	2016	Providence	N/A	75	220.0
Jamal Murray	2016	Kentucky	N/A	76	207.0
Melo Trimble	2016	Maryland	N/A	75	185.0
Wade Baldwin	2016	Vanderbilt	N/A	75	194.0
Demetrius Jackson	2016	Notre Dame	N/A	73	201.0
Gary Payton II	2016	Oregon State	N/A	75	190.0
Isaiah Briscoe	2016	Kentucky	N/A	75	202.0
Kahlil Felder	2016	Oakland	N/A	69	176.0
Isaiah Cousins	2016	Oklahoma	N/A	76	200.0
Marcus Paige	2016	North Carolina	N/A	74	175.0
Anthony Barber	2016	NC State	N/A	74	180.0
Isaiah Taylor	2016	Texas	N/A	75	185.0
Tyrone Wallace	2016	California	N/A	77	205.0
Caris LeVert	2016	Michigan	N/A	79	205.0
Malik Newman	2016	Mississippi State	N/A	75	190.0
Tim Quarterman	2016	LSU	N/A	78	190.0
Tyler Ulis	2016	Kentucky	N/A	69	160.0

The averages are about the same for this group of players, with Kahlil Felder and Tyler Ulis bringing down the average height slightly compared to players who've been drafted since 2010. Still, if the weights listed for these prospects are accurate, Morris is tied for the second lightest with North Carolina's Marcus Paige just behind Ulis (who's miniature for NBA standards).

So, as far as size is concerned, Morris is right where he needs to be for height in order to fit in around the NBA. However, adding some muscle during the offseason would probably help him be better prepared for the professional ranks.

Stats

Here's what first rounders have averaged per 40 minutes during their final season of college ball, as well as Morris' stats and the averages again for a direct comparison.

Player	Points	Assists	Rebounds	Steals	Blocks	Turnovers
Average 1st Rounder	20.0	5.6	5.1	1.7	0.4	3.2
Average Lottery Pick	21.5	6.2	5.2	2.0	0.4	3.3
Monte Morris	16.1	7.5	4.2	2.0	0.3	1.4
D'Angelo Russell	22.7	5.9	6.7	1.9	0.4	3.4
Cameron Payne	25.1	7.4	4.6	2.4	0.6	3.1
Terry Rozier	19.5	3.4	6.3	2.3	0.2	2.5
Jerian Grant	17.8	7.2	3.3	1.8	0.5	2.3
Delon Wright	17.5	6.1	5.9	2.5	1.2	2.3
Tyus Jones	13.9	6.6	4.1	1.8	0.1	2.3
Marcus Smart	22.0	5.8	7.2	3.5	0.7	3.2
Elfrid Payton	21.4	6.6	6.7	2.5	0.7	4.0
Tyler Ennis	14.5	6.2	3.8	2.3	0.2	1.9
Shabazz Napier	20.5	5.6	6.7	2.1	0.4	3.2
Trey Burke	21.1	7.5	3.6	1.8	0.6	2.5
C.J. McCollum	30.9	3.8	6.5	1.8	0.4	3.4
Michael Carter-Williams	13.5	8.3	5.6	3.1	0.6	3.9
Shane Larkin	15.9	5.0	4.2	2.2	0.1	2.5
Damian Lillard	28.4	4.6	5.8	1.7	0.3	2.7
Kendall Marshall	9.9	11.8	3.2	1.4	0.2	3.4
Tony Wroten	21.1	4.9	6.6	2.5	0.5	5.0
Marquis Teague	12.3	5.6	3.1	1.1	0.3	3.3
Kyrie Irving	25.3	6.2	4.9	2.1	0.8	3.6
Brandon Knight	19.3	4.7	4.5	0.7	0.2	3.5
Kemba Walker	25.0	4.8	5.8	2.0	0.2	2.4
Jimmer Fredette	32.3	4.8	3.8	1.5	0.0	4.0
Nolan Smith	24.3	6.0	5.3	1.4	0.1	3.7
Reggie Jackson	21.3	5.2	5.0	1.2	0.6	2.8
Norris Cole	24.3	5.9	6.5	2.5	0.1	3.0
Cory Joseph	12.9	3.7	4.4	1.3	0.4	1.9
John Wall	19.1	7.5	4.9	2.0	0.6	4.6
Eric Bledsoe	14.9	3.8	4.1	1.9	0.4	4.0
Avery Bradley	15.8	2.8	3.9	1.8	0.7	2.1
Greivis Vásquez	23.1	7.4	5.5	2.0	0.4	4.0

This table suggests that it's hard to find a player who's really close to Morris statistically, but when you add a few advanced stats, one draftee begins to stand out.

Player	Player Efficiency Rating	True Shooting %	Usage Percentage
Average 1st Rounder	24.4	56.2	26.5
Average Lottery Pick	27.1	56.4	28.7
Monte Morris	23.0	58.0	18.9
D'Angelo Russell	26.6	57.3	30.2
Cameron Payne	30.1	57.3	31.5
Terry Rozier	22.1	50.9	27.8
Jerian Grant	25.5	59.2	24.2
Delon Wright	29.2	61.9	22.8
Tyus Jones	20.4	57.5	18.7
Marcus Smart	26.9	55.2	29.2
Elfrid Payton	25.2	55.1	27.6
Tyler Ennis	21.3	51.1	21.9
Shabazz Napier	25.5	59.1	27.5
Trey Burke	28.7	56.9	28.3
C.J. McCollum	34.7	62.8	37.2
Michael Carter-Williams	20.9	49.1	22.2
Shane Larkin	22.6	60.0	21.3
Damian Lillard	34.0	63.5	33.0
Kendall Marshall	17.2	55.8	13.9
Tony Wroten	20.4	48.8	31.2
Marquis Teague	13.2	49.1	20.2
Kyrie Irving	32.5	69.7	26.4
Brandon Knight	19.3	55.3	27.0
Kemba Walker	29.9	54.3	32.4
Jimmer Fredette	30.9	59.4	37.8
Nolan Smith	25.7	56.4	30.7
Reggie Jackson	26.9	61.8	27.2
Norris Cole	30.0	55.8	32.1
Cory Joseph	15.1	52.6	17.3
John Wall	22.3	56.2	25.7
Eric Bledsoe	14.5	56.6	20.4
Avery Bradley	14.9	49.6	20.4
Greivis Vásquez	25.6	54.9	30.2

Tyus Jones, last year's freshman point guard for the national champion Duke Blue Devils, had a similarly low usage percentage as Morris during his only year of college ball. If you check out NBADraft.net's strength and weakness evaluations of Jones from last year, you'll feel like you're reading a description of Morris' playing style while he's been at Iowa State.

That stat, usage percentage, might be the single most important offensive statistic going against Morris' draft resume. Besides Jones and former North Carolina distributor Kendall Marshall, Morris' usage percentage would be the lowest drafted in the first round of the NBA draft since 2010. Usage percentage is defined as:

An estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player when he was on the floor.

Thus, playing on a team with other talented players has limited Morris when it comes to usage percentage. It's not necessarily a bad thing for Iowa State that they've had players to rely on other than Morris, but so many other point guards have been relied on to make plays for their teams in the past, and that typically gives NBA scouts a better idea of what they're dealing with when it comes to a certain athlete. Morris has upped his usage percentage in every season in Ames, but it's still below the typical first round point guard level.

Let's continue by checking out Morris' stats compared to other point guards this year. Again, all stats are per 40 minutes of play.

Player	Points	Assists	Rebounds	Steals	Blocks	Turnovers
Average 2016 PG	19.2	5.8	5.3	1.7	0.4	2.9
Monte Morris	16.1	7.5	4.2	2.0	0.3	1.4
Kris Dunn	20.3	7.9	7.0	3.6	0.9	4.2
Jamal Murray	21.9	2.6	5.6	1.3	0.2	2.9
Melo Trimble	17.7	6.6	3.7	1.6	0.3	3.3
Wade Baldwin	19.9	6.5	5.3	1.8	0.4	3.9
Demetrius Jackson	18.9	5.7	3.9	1.6	0.4	2.3
Gary Payton II	18.9	6.1	9.0	2.9	0.6	2.8
Isaiah Briscoe	12.4	4.3	6.5	2.2	0.3	3.9
Kahlil Felder	26.9	9.9	4.3	2.3	0.2	3.7
Isaiah Cousins	16.8	5.5	5.6	1.8	0.4	2.4
Marcus Paige	17.0	4.8	3.2	1.7	0.5	1.4
Anthony Barber	24.9	4.7	4.7	0.6	0.1	2.5
Isaiah Taylor	19.7	6.6	3.7	1.3	0.2	2.3
Tyrone Wallace	18.7	5.4	6.4	1.3	0.7	3.4
Caris LeVert	21.3	6.4	6.9	1.3	0.3	2.2
Malik Newman	17.1	2.9	3.9	0.6	0.1	3.6
Tim Quarterman	16.4	5.1	7.0	1.3	0.5	2.3
Tyler Ulis	18.3	7.3	3.4	1.7	0.1	2.1

And the advanced stats.

Player	Player Efficiency Rating	True Shooting %	Usage Percentage
Average 2016 PG	21.8	55.6	24.8
Monte Morris	23.0	58.0	18.9
Kris Dunn	24.8	52.7	28.6
Jamal Murray	20.5	56.1	27.2
Melo Trimble	21.2	58.9	23.9
Wade Baldwin	22.3	61.1	25.4
Demetrius Jackson	23.9	58.1	24.3
Gary Payton II	26.8	54.1	25.6
Isaiah Briscoe	12.5	45.5	20.0
Kahlil Felder	29.1	57.8	31.1
Isaiah Cousins	18.9	53.8	21.7
Marcus Paige	18.8	55.2	19.5
Anthony Barber	25.1	56.6	29.6
Isaiah Taylor	21.9	52.4	27.0
Tyrone Wallace	19.9	52.0	27.1
Caris LeVert	28.8	63.6	25.7
Malik Newman	13.4	53.6	22.7
Tim Quarterman	18.9	55.3	20.3
Tyler Ulis	24.0	58.2	21.6

That usage percentage stands out again in this list, as Morris holds the lowest of this year's crop of NBA draft point guard prospects. However, he does hold a PER and true shooting % higher than the average of all these players (true shooting % is the measure of shooting efficiency that takes into 2-point field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws).

So What Does It Mean?

To me, the stats above all point to one thing, and that's coming back to Iowa State for one year being a great idea for Monte Morris as far as proving his NBA worth goes.

BUT.

While coming back another year would surely help Morris add some muscle, allow him to showcase more of his talent for scoring the ball and get better on the defensive side of the ball, there are so many factors that go into getting drafted that are out of his control. Many experts believe that this year's class is weaker than the crop of players coming out in 2017, and of course, there's always the chance that Morris could hurt himself playing college ball during his senior season.

The NBA drafts largely based on potential. If a guy has a chance of blossoming into an All-Star five to eight years down the road, that's sometimes enough for some teams to take a player above another who's played much better statistically in college. Morris has certainly been a great floor general for ISU, and he has the statistics to back it up (NCAA record assist/turnover ratio says hello!), but does he have much upside?

As it stands right now, mock drafts have Morris going anywhere from late in the first round to going undrafted. If that holds true, then it's going to be extremely risky for him to leave after this season unless he gets promised that he'll be taken in the first round by a team's front office.

The nice part is, the NCAA has enacted a new plan for underclassmen who want to declare for the NBA Draft in 2016. Going forward, underclassmen declaring for the draft no longer forfeit their remaining eligibility immediately. Instead, they can attend the draft combine and even work out for an NBA team before making an official decision.

The new withdrawal date is set for May 25 (10 days after the conclusion of the draft combine), meaning Morris could attend the combine and still come back to Iowa State -  so long as he doesn't hire an agent and says he's coming back before the end of the day on May 25.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Morris declare for the draft following the season, test the waters, then choose to come back for his senior season. No one knows for sure what's going to happen at this point except for Morris, and even he might base his decision heavily on what happens over the next few months. A deep NCAA Tournament run would only help his stock, much like it helped the statistically-similar Tyus Jones last year when he helped Duke win it all.

Regardless, enjoy these last few weeks of the season. For all we know, they could be the last we ever see of one of the all-time greatest point guards to ever play for Iowa State University. It's been a privilege to watch Monte Morris play, and selfishly, I hope we get to watch him ball out one more season in a Cyclone uniform.