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NarbTom Bracketology 4.0.1

Forget everything you thought you knew about predicting the NCAA Tournament bracket. RevDizz and austinnarber, as with most things in life, are all you really need.

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The Rev and I are tardy getting the latest edition of bracketology released to the masses, so we'll skip the nonsense.


The (Non) Compromise

I was stupid to think Narber would ever do as I say. He's notably indecisive. He had Virginia as the fourth 1-seed despite this interaction early in the week...

I win.

The Curious Case of the Oregon Ducks

There are a couple things Narber and I disagree on this week. This biggest of which is probably Oregon. Narber had them a 5, which I thought was a little low (KenPom No. 15). I had them on the 3 line. After more thought on it, I bumped them up to 2 (which is not a compromise) for two reasons. The first is that their résumé is not as bad as I thought — 24-6 overall, 4th in the RIP*... errr... RPI... 9-3 against the RPI top 50, 5th best strength of schedule and only one loss outside the top 100.

The second is that the Spokane and Denver sites are desperate for *local* teams on the top four lines to fill spots. That's why you see Iowa State constantly thrown at those two sites when bracketologists put them on the 4-line. Just not enough good teams out west. With teams like Utah, Arizona and Cal all fighting on that 4/5 line, Oregon has to be 2/3 to avoid 2nd round matchups and place top four seeds close to home.

So, my money is on Oregon being the classically over-seeded team that stays close to home.

*Burn the RPI with the fire of a thousand suns

Last Four In

Oregon State, Tulsa, Syracuse, Colorado

First Four Out

Vaparaiso, Wichita State, Gonzaga, Monmouth

Next Four Out

Florida, Michigan, Princeton, Florida State

Conference Breakdown

ACC (7): Duke, Miami, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia
Big 12 (7): Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, West Virginia
PAC 12 (7):
Arizona, California, Colorado, Oregon, Oregon State, USC, Utah
B1G (6): Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Big East (5): Butler, Providence, Seton Hall, Villanova, Xavier
American (4): Cincinnati, Temple, Tulsa, UConn
Atlantic 10 (4): Dayton, St. Bonaventure, Saint Joseph's, VCU
SEC (4): Kentucky, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
America East (1): Stony Brook
Atlantic Sun (1): Florida Gulf Coast
Big Sky (1): Weber State
Big South (1): UNC Asheville
Big West (1): Hawaii
Colonial (1): UNC Wilmington
Conference USA (1): UAB
Horizon (1): Green Bay
Ivy (1): Yale
MAAC (1): Iona
Mid-American (1): Akron
MEAC (1): Hampton
Missouri Valley (1): Northern Iowa
Mountain West (1): San Diego State
Northeast (1): Wagner
Ohio Valley (1): Austin Peay
Patriot (1): Bucknell
Southern (1): Chattanooga
Southland (1): Stephen F. Austin
SWAC (1): Texas Southern
Summit (1): South Dakota State
Sun Belt (1): Arkansas Little Rock
WAC (1): New Mexico State
West Coast (1): Gonzaga

(Italicized teams have already clinched)