College football is back, baby! There is nothing better than the fall. Crisp weather, cold beer, college football and winning wagers. I’m here to help you buy that new house, drive that new car and lead you into early retirement. Most of you I’m sure would settle for tackling some student loans, covering a UBill or twelve and earning a couple child support checks.
We’ve already discussed season win totals this week. We will check back with those midway through the season and then again at the end.
WRNL has been generous enough to give me $1,000 in Monopoly money to wager with so we can keep this site afloat.
Before reading my picks, we need to make a few assumptions. First, for all side bets and game totals, we are paying 10% in juice. This is why you will see me betting weird amounts like $22. Second, I am using the "Vegas Consensus" spread at the time of writing. Players get hurt, weather changes and the lines will move, but we will stick with the lines I have at the time of writing. We will keep track of our winnings throughout the season and hopefully have enough left to get crazy come bowl time, or at least buy some quarter draws on Welch Avenue.
CloneTeach’s Bankroll: $1,000
Kansas State (0-0) vs Stanford (0-0)
Friday, 8 p.m., FS1
Line: Kansas State +15.5
Tree vs Pussies. We don’t typically get a match-up like this on the gridiron.
Stanford comes into this game on a roll after beating their last opponent by 29 points in a game that probably wasn’t even as close as the score indicated. Christian McCaffery shredded an inferior defense for over 277 total yards and a touchdown.
Kansas State should be a stiffer test after losing by only 23 points in their bowl game. Do they have enough to pull off the upset though?
Las Vegas doesn’t think Kansas State has much of a shot in this particular game, and quite frankly I don’t blame them. Under Snyder, Kansas State has always seemed to improve as the season goes along. Part of this is the influx of junior college players getting adapted and part of it is Bill Snyder’s coaching prowess. The problem? This is the first game of the season, against a team contending for a spot in the College Football Playoff, in their house, in a different time zone.
Oh yeah. Stanford has Christian McCaffery too.
This game kicks off past Bill Snyder’s bedtime and he will be asleep by half-time. Someone will have to call the fire department to get the pussies out of the tree.
The Pick: Stanford -15.5
The Bet: $22
Oklahoma (0-0) vs Houston (0-0)
Saturday, 11 a.m., ABC
Line: Oklahoma -11.5
The worst part about the fall is the return of BOOMER.....SOONER blasting through your television. The last time most of us heard it was during the Final Four piss-pounding they received from Villanova last spring.
There isn’t a hotter coaching candidate right now than Tom Herman. Yes, the same Tom Herman that orchestrated dozens of 14+ point outbursts at Iowa State. They want to be in the Big 12 and they have a chance to prove it in week 1.
Sorry Cougars, you aren’t going to.
Oklahoma will win this game and win it handily. For a top 15 matchup, 11.5 points is a lot to give. Rankings don’t mean squat when it comes to gambling though. I’m rolling with the Sooners, although I’m going with a smaller amount because this one has backdoor cover written all over it.
The Pick: Oklahoma -11.5
The Bet: $11
West Virginia (0-0) vs Missouri (0-0)
Saturday, 11:00 a.m., FS1
Line: West Virginia -10
This is a perfect non-conference game. It's pretty easy to imagine the two fan bases battling it out over a lost set of dentures in the stands, isn’t it? Beware of burning couches and flying pieces of coal, Missouri fans.
As for the football side of things, I mentioned in my previous Betting the Big 12 piece that West Virginia is a team that could exceed expectations this season. They get a mediocre Missouri team to start the year and we will know a lot more about West Virginia on Sunday than we do right now.
Honestly, 10 points seems like a pretty fair spread to me. According to ESPN’s FPI, Missouri ranked #113 last year in offensive efficiency. West Virginia ranked #12 in defensive efficiency. The rosters aren’t exactly the same, but I see these two trends continue into the beginning of this season. West Virginia will win, but my bet is to hammer that under.
The Pick: Under 50.5
The Bet: $22
Texas (0-0) vs Notre Dame (0-0)
Sunday, 6:30 p.m., ABC
Line: Texas +3.5
Catholics vs Convicts. The new name for Notre Dame’s annual spring game.
This is supposed to be Charlie Strong’s farewell season. Meanwhile, his suggested successor is auditioning over in Houston. Strong has by far the most pressure of any coach in college football this season. You could probably say that about the Texas coach every year though.
Both teams are being coy about naming their starting quarterback. The old saying is if you have two quarterbacks, you have no quarterbacks. It looks like both teams might be trying out the often-tried, but never successful "two quarterback" strategy.
I’m not as down on Texas as others are. I’m also not as high on Notre Dame as others are. They get credit for scheduling tough non-conference opponents, which is a little misleading considering they have more open dates to fill than anyone else somewhat affiliated with a conference.
Texas wins this one against Notre Dame and Charlie Strong’s seat gets a little cooler.....for now.
The Pick: Texas +3.5
The Bet: $11
Baylor (0-0) vs Northwestern State (0-0)
Friday, 6:30 p.m.
Northwestern State, most known for their buzzer beater win over Iowa in the NCAA Tournament, faces the task of going into Waco and coming out alive. Art Briles isn’t going to be on the sideline, but it won’t matter. Don’t drink the Kool-Aid in Waco, Northwestern State.
The Pick: Baylor 77 Northwestern State 7
Iowa State (0-0) vs Northern Iowa (0-0)
Saturday, 7 p.m., Cyclones.TV
Iowa State will join most of the Big 12 in playing a directional opponent as a non-conference tune-up. Northern Iowa was once a threat to Power 5 football teams when they had the likes of David Johnson. They don’t have him, or Kurt Warner, or Dedric Ward.
The Cyclones take a little a bit of time to get going on offense, but the "Three Amigos" get it rolling in the second half.
The Pick: Iowa State 27 Northern Iowa 14
Oklahoma State (0-0) vs Southeastern Louisiana (0-0)
Saturday, 2:30 p.m.
The Southeastern Louisiana Lions will roll into Stillwater in the midst of a four-game losing streak dating back to last season. The Lions ended it losing to Central Arkansas, Incarnate Word, Abilene Christian and Nicholls State.
Pistol Pete shoots Cecil the Lion at halftime and Twitter goes crazy.
My Pick: Oklahoma State 45 Southeastern Louisiana 3
Kansas (0-0) vs Rhode Island (0-0)
Saturday, 6 p.m., ESPN 3
The Jayhawks do, indeed have a football team and they will in fact win this game. David Beaty will no longer be winless as a Big 12 head coach.
Sorry Rhode Island, but Tyler Catalina ain’t walking through that door.
The Pick: Kansas 34 Rhode Island 6
TCU (0-0) vs South Dakota State (0-0)
Saturday, 7 p.m.
Horned Frogs vs Jackrabbits. There has to be a joke there somewhere. TCU is poised to make a run at the College Football Playoff and SDSU is happy to collect their check to pay Otzelberger’s salary. Everyone goes home happy.
The Pick: TCU 51 SDSU 7
Texas Tech (0-0) vs Stephen F Austin (0-0)
Saturday, 7 p.m.
When Kliff Kingsbury isn’t hitting on moms or pretending to be a "thirsty" college girl on Twitter he coaches a Big 12 football team. Ryan Gosling could probably fill in for Kingsbury on Saturday and I doubt anyone would notice. The Red Raiders win big, but go home without learning with the "F" stands for.
The Pick: Texas Tech 70 Stephen F. Austin 21
So there they are. The winning picks. If you are a cliff notes type of person, I have included our wagers below so you can screenshot and send to your bookie. Good luck!
|Mizzou Under 50.5||$22||$20|