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Betting the Big 12: Week 4

Nothing to see here, just a two-week winning streak.

Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images

Week 3 Recap

Winner, winner chicken dinner! Week 3 brought us our second winning week in a row (even if Week 2 won us a measly $1). Much thanks to California for saving us from a rough, rough week. The Texas-Cal game brought us three winning tickets on the spread, money-line and over. It even had quite the controversial ending, but we won, so who cares? After a profit of $66 on that game alone, we finished the week in the black. Here is a quick summary of our action.

Pick Wager W/L
Baylor -30 $33 -$33
Iowa State +24 $11 $10
Kansas +20 $22 -$22
Kansas UNDER 59.5 $22 $20
FAU +22.5 $11 -$11
FAU UNDER 49 $22 -$22
Oklahoma State -6 $22 $20
La Tech +10.5 $22 -$22
La Tech OVER 79.5 $33 $30
Oklahoma (ML) +110 $20 -$20
California +8 $11 $10
California (ML) +260 $10 $26
Cal OVER 79.5 $33 $30
Total $272 $16

Week 3: 7-6

Season: 15-14

Bankroll: $1,014

You will notice our wagers have increased slightly this week. With less games on tap going forward, we'll try to consistently put 20-25% of our bankroll in play each week. This week we are slightly over that. Good luck!

TCU (2-1) @ SMU (2-1)

Friday, 7PM, ESPN

Line: TCU -21

O/U: 63.5

Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images

This game is "Friday Night Lights." TCU will travel across the Dallas metroplex to play SMU on a Friday night to finish up their non-conference slate. The Homecoming dance will follow on Saturday evening, I'm assuming.

SMU comes into the Friday night tilt with a 2-1 record. Their wins over North Texas and Liberty don’t tell us much, but their first three quarters against Baylor do. Chad Morris has the Mustangs improving. The 40-13 loss to Baylor is incredibly misleading as SMU had several chances to put Baylor on their heels and just failed to do so.

We all got a glimpse at TCU last week. They were obviously a lot more talented than our Cyclones, but overall? I wasn’t terribly impressed. They have some issues of their own and are going to be playing an away game on a short week. Kenny Hill is a definite talent, but makes too many mistakes early in possessions to get them behind the sticks.

SMU stays within three touchdowns in this one, even while struggling to score.

The Picks: SMU +21, UNDER 63.5

The Bets: $33 each

San Jose State (1-2) @ Iowa State (0-3)

Saturday, 11 am, FSN

Line: Iowa State -6.5

O/U: 55

John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

Shortly after this game was scheduled, San Jose State won 11 games in 2012. Fortunately for Iowa State, the Spartans haven’t blossomed into the next Boise State or Houston.

San Jose State will come into Ames banged up and licking the wounds from two pretty bad losses already this season at the hands of Tulsa and Utah. Word is that their quarterback will play after getting beat to a pulp last week against the Utes. In fact, San Jose’s offensive line might be worse than Iowa State’s. In short, the Spartans aren’t very good.

Iowa State really, really needs a win. A win won’t solidify a bowl berth or win them a conference championship, but it will give some sign of progress to "the process." It also might be the last game they are favored in the rest of the season. Yes, even Kansas might be favored at home over Iowa State.

Iowa State is bad, but they are "less bad" than the Spartans. Give the points, hammer the under.

The Picks: Iowa State -6.5, UNDER 55

The Bets: $22, $44

BYU (1-2) @ West Virginia (2-0)

Saturday, 2:30 PM, ESPN2

Line: West Virginia -7

O/U: 51

Photo by Gene Sweeney Jr/Getty Images

A future Big 12 rivalry? Not if the ISU student senate has anything to say about it. It is an intriguing non-conference match-up, though. West Virginia has almost become the forgotten member of the Big 12 out there in Morgantown. They aren’t getting a lot of talk among the experts. Not yet anyway, but they will soon enough.

BYU’s record of 1-2 doesn’t seem all that impressive at this point in the season. Remember though that they don’t belong to a conference and their independent schedule has had them facing three Pac-12 opponents in Arizona, Utah, and UCLA. All three were incredibly close, low-scoring games. Now they get to travel across the country for an early kickoff. Have fun with that Cougars.

On a side note, if a BYU grad moved to West Virginia, would they be able to marry ALL of their sisters?

The Picks: West Virginia -7, UNDER 51

The Bets: $22, $55

Missouri State (2-0) @ Kansas State (1-1)

Saturday, 6:10 PM

Line: N/A

Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports

If Ron Prince hadn’t taken the football program hostage for a couple of years, I think Bill Snyder would still be scheduling multiple games against FCS teams if he could. This is the only one they get this year. Missouri State will collect their paycheck, Kansas State will win. Things get tougher for the Wildcats when they travel to Morgantown next Saturday.

The Pick: Kansas State 55 Missouri State 3

Oklahoma State (2-1) @ Baylor (3-0)

Saturday, 6:30 PM, FOX

Line: -8.5

O/U: 74

I do feel compelled to put an asterisk next to Oklahoma State’s record, but then I remember how many times Iowa State has been on the receiving end of a blatant officiating error and I don’t feel as compelled.

This is the week we start learning just who some of these teams really are. With Oklahoma apparently down this year, will someone else from the Big 12 step up and make themselves a playoff contender? This is likely a playoff elimination game for both teams, as Oklahoma State isn’t getting in with two losses and Baylor won’t be able to defend their non-conference schedule well enough to get in with one loss.

Baylor has sputtered early on offense in their last two games, but has recovered in time to put their opponent away. Oklahoma State gave up 30 to Central Michigan and 38 to Pittsburgh. This defense might be just what the doctor ordered for the Baylor offense.

Baylor hasn’t allowed more than 13 points all season. Is that a product of their schedule or an improved defense? I’m going to lean with schedule, but we will find out on Saturday.

Oklahoma State and Baylor will find themselves in the first Big 12 shootout of the year and the Cowboys will find a way to keep it within 8.5 points.

The Picks: Oklahoma State +8.5, OVER 74

The Bets: $22, $55

Week 4 Summary

With only eight bets this week and higher wagers, things could be a little more volatile this week. Send these picks to your bookie and make him do the sweating this weekend.

Pick Wager
SMU +21 $33
SMU UNDER 63.5 $33
Iowa State -6.5 $22
ISU UNDER 55 $44
West Virginia -7 $22
WVU UNDER 51 $55
Oklahoma State +8.5 $22
OSU OVER 74 $55
Total $286