Hawkeyes Heading To Hilton for Cy-Hawk Dual

Last time we saw Iowa State take the mats it was against one in-state rival in a 7-31 loss to Northern Iowa. And this weekend they’ll take on another other in-state opponent as the #7 Hawkeyes come to Hilton for the final dual of the 2017-18 season. Despite many boasts to the contrary over the past year since he was dismissed from the Iowa State wrestling team, Pat Downey will not be in attendance unless he buys a ticket.

Where: Hilton Coliseum, Ames, IA

When: 2PM, Sunday, February 18th

TV/Stream: Mediacom/Cyclones.TV

Projected Lineups

*Rankings from the 2/8/18 Coaches Panel

Key Matches

133

Normally a 21-13 wrestler vs a 7-9 wrestler wouldn’t make the “key matches” list. But I’m making an exception here because, depending on Ian Parker’s status, this might be the only match where Iowa State is favored. And nobody likes getting blanked in a dual. As I’ve mentioned throughout the season, Simmons is the picture of inconsistency. Good Simmons wins this match with no problem. Bad Simmons eats a close loss. On Sunday we really need good Simmons to show up.

141

This match is important for two reasons. The first is the same as 133 - if Parker takes the mat here he’ll be favored, and getting any points is better than getting no points. The second reason is that, based on the limited sample we have of Parker at 141, he is the guy on the team with the best chance to make a run in Cleveland. So apart from hoping he can pick up a win here and make the dual score a little more respectable, it is important to see whether or not his knee is healthy and ready for the postseason.

184

All season I’ve been saying that “This is a chance for Dane to get a signature win”. And all season Dane... hasn’t picked up a signature win. At this point a single win over the guy who is #19 in the coaches panel probably wouldn’t be enough to push Pestano in to the rankings. And even if it did his lack of RPI would mean that it would be unlikely to mean the difference for an allocation anyway. But a win here would still give Dane two key things. The first is confidence and momentum going in to the postseason. Dane has had multiple close matches against ranked opponents and finally getting over the hump with a win in one of them would be a big boost for him as he preps for the Big XII tournament. The second is that even though it is probably too late for Pestano to earn an NCAA allocation, the only thing he lacks to be competitive for an at large slot is, well, a signature win, and this sets up perfectly for Pestano to get that in his last ever match in Hilton.

197

When the last coaches panel and RPI came out Colbray came in at #33 in the panel and #23 in RPI. That RPI is good enough to hit one of the three qualification legs but is short of what he’d need in the coaches panel. He’ll be the underdog against Wilke but he has shown that he is capable of taking out All American caliber wrestlers when he wrestles to his potential. If he can do that here to get the upset he’d almost surely get enough of a boost in the last coaches panel to get an NCAA allocation as well as having a no brainer resume for an at large bid if the Big XII tournament doesn’t go well.

Prediction

Even if I get generous on the bonus points and optimistic about how ISU does in matches where they aren’t huge underdogs I struggle to come up with a better than 10-28 loss for the meet score. But I’m not confident we’ll actually win at 184 or 197, I just think we have a shot at it. So I’ll go with a 31-7 win for Iowa on this one. Or 37-4 if Parker is unable to wrestle.

No Really, How Could Iowa State Win?

Well, they won’t. But if they somehow pulled off a miracle it would probably go like this. None of these individual results are crazy, but pulling off all ten of them in a row is.

• 125: Briggs gives up a tech, ISU 0, Iowa 5
• 133: Simmons gets the pin. ISU 6, Iowa 5
• 141: Parker gets a major. ISU 10, Iowa 5
• 149: Degen holds it to a decision for Sorenson. ISU 10, Iowa 8
• 157: Straw holds it to a decision for Kemerer. ISU 10, Iowa 11
• 165: Jennings or St. John holds it to a decision for Marinelli. ISU 10, Iowa 14
• 174: Bush gets a TD in the first and rides out Gunther in the 2nd for a 4-2 win. ISU 13, Iowa 14
• 184: Pestano gets his signature win. ISU 16, Iowa 14
• 197: Colbray gets a 6-5 win in sudden victory after Wilke gets hit for backing up off the mat. ISU 19, Iowa 14
• HWT: Harrington holds it to a decision for Stoll. ISU 19, Iowa 17.

Next Up

With the regular season at a close the Cyclones will have next weekend off before taking the mats again at the Big XII tournament in Tulsa, OK on March 3rd and 4th.

When Do We Find Out About Allocations?

Allocations will be released this coming Thursday, February 22nd.