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Betting the Big 12: Week 5 Edition

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We’ve hit Rock Bottom, so the only way is UP!

NCAA Football: Oklahoma at Texas Tech
Points, Points, and More Points for Tech and Oklahoma
Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Boy oh boy, Vegas took me to the woodshed this weekend. I made the grand ole mistake of trying to win all of your money back in one week, and that risk far outweighed the reward.

Sorry boys and girls, I have been slacking lately, and need to right the ship.

Luckily our friends from Anheuser Busch and Venmo have pitched in to help our bank account, and we somehow have $500k more monopoly money to play with.

All things considered, we are 5 for 11 on picks (45%), I have just been mismanaging my units and betting too big for my britches.

This week will have all conference matchups, while Texas and West Virginia carry BYE weeks.

SATURDAY September 28th GAMES

Texas Tech (2-1, 0-0) at #6 Oklahoma (3-0, 0-0) | 11:00 A.M. (not on TV?) | OU -24

Good luck to new Tech coach Matt Wells. After losing quarterback Alan Bowman to a shoulder injury, the Red Raiders will bring in a new signal-caller on the road in Norman.

Both teams are coming off a bye week, so expect OU’s Jalen Hurts to continue his Heisman campaign against a defense as soft as a knife through warm butter.

Jet Duffey has some experience (started 3 games in 2018), but will be overmatched on the road. I expect a lot of points to be scored, and OU to win by 3+ scores. If there was anything to take here, it would be the over at 72.5.

#24 Kansas State (3-0, 0-0) at Oklahoma State (3-1, 0-1) | 6:00 P.M. CST on ESPN+ | OSU -5

Now Kansas State has been a surprise team for me this year. I didn’t expect them to be as good as they have been, especially beating SEC squad Mississippi State on the road a few weeks ago.

Okie State had looked impressive in non-conference play, but the offense struggled to move the ball efficiently against Texas last week. Chuba Hubbard had to work for all his 121 yards (on 37 carries), and Spencer Sanders was not as other-worldly as he previously had been.

NCAA Football: Kansas State at Mississippi State
Klieman has been better than advertised
Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

K-State’s defense has been the catalyst to their 3-0 record, holding opponents to only 119 passing yards per game, and leading the Big 12 in total defense and scoring defense.

I still think OSU sneaks by with the victory, but have no feel on the spread. I could take arguments on both sides, but would ultimately lean to the points and the Wildcats if you put a gun to my head.

Here are my best bets for Week FIVE of the 2019 Season

Kansas (2-2, 0-1) at TCU (2-1, 0-0) | 11:00 A.M. on FS1 | TCU -16.5

Gary Patterson’s squad was brought back to earth last week in a home loss to SMU. Their defense was shredded by former Longhorn quarterback Shane Buechele, but will get a much-needed slump-buster with KU coming to town.

The Jayhawks put up a fight, but lost to West Virginia 24-29 at home last week. If this game was in Lawrence, I would lean heavily towards KU, but still like the 16.5 points we have been given.

If it gets above 17, jump on it. With that being said, I’ll take KU +16.5 for 1 Unit $100k.

Iowa State (2-1, 0-0) at Baylor (3-0, 0-0) | 2:30 P.M. On ESPN | Pick ‘Em

This will be one helluva matchup – as both teams are battle tested with good defenses and great fundamental teachers as coaches. If this game were played in Ames, I could see ISU favored by a score, but since its in Waco, we are currently at a pick ‘em.

NCAA Football: Baylor at Iowa State
No LOVE lost in this rivalry
Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports

Baylor struggled in putting away Rice last week, as the offense hit cruise control in the second half and stalled out. Luckily, a 21-3 halftime lead was enough, as the Bears enjoyed more frosting on their cupcake schedule and a 3-0 record.

Iowa State bounced back from a heartbreaking Iowa loss to absolutely throttle Louisiana-Monroe. After two first-quarter turnovers, the Cyclones went on to score on 11 straight possessions on the putting up 72 points.

This game will have much fewer points, as both defenses are stout. I see a margin of victory less than a touchdown, and the Cyclones to pull out a squeaker. I’ll take ISU with the win for $100k, Alex.

2019 WRNL College Football Betting Results

Begin the Year with $1,000,000

Week 1: 2 for 3, PLUS $80k

Week 2: 1 for 3, MINUS $65k

Week 3: 2 for 3, MINUS $560k

Week 4: 0 for 2, MINUS $450k

Running Total $0 (Yes, I’m out of Money)