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Iowa State MBB Analytics Report - Week 10 (1/13/20)

Read about notable analytical stats from the previous week for Iowa State as a team, as well as individual players.

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You can read last week’s analytics report here.

Last Week’s Notable Iowa State Game News:

Jan 8th: Iowa State (7-6): 53 vs. #3 Kansas (11-1): 79

After a disappointing week of play to open up the new year, this week started out with some of the same. Kansas handed the Cyclones their worst home conference loss since 2010. The box score reassured that Iowa State got dominated in all facets of the game.

The same problems that the Cyclones have had all season continued. Their three point defense was atrocious as they allowed Kansas to shoot a blasphemous 52.6% from behind the arc. While on their own, ISU shot 28.6% from three as a team. The Cyclones defensive efforts were very poor all around, as every player on Kansas who played 18+ minutes surpassed an offensive rating of at least 111.

From just a pure on-floor perspective, the most frustrating part of the loss has to be Iowa State’s lack of post defense. Having three players of at least 6’10”–you would hope that the Cyclones could at least somewhat slowdown KU’s big man duo of Udoka Azubuike and David McCormick, but that was not the case. McCormick and Azubuike ended up being two of Kansas’ three most efficient offensive players in the game.

I won’t waste your time taking about Iowa State’s offensive numbers, because there is virtually nothing positive to take from this game.

Jan. 11th: Iowa State (7-7): 81 vs. Oklahoma (11-3): 68

Iowa State entered their conference matchup with Oklahoma, in about as must-win of a situation you can have in early January. Luckily, this game was a much different story than Wednesday’s against Kansas.

For virtually the first time all year, the Cyclones were able to knock down some three point shots at a respectable rate. They shot 37.5% as a team, but the number is a little skewed due to some garbage time misses.

For the first time all year, Steve Prohm made a change to the starting lineup. He moved George Conditt IV in and Solomon Young out. The move seemed to pay off as Conditt did his best to slow down OU’s Kristian Doolittle as the Sooner’s leading scorer finished 4/10 from the field.

Overall, this was a very clean performance from the Cyclones as seven of the nine players who played significant minutes finished with an offensive rating over 100. Under the radar, Tre Jackson had his best game of the season, as he finished 4/6 for 12 points and a team high offensive rating of 202.

Notable Iowa State Team Stats:

Currently 56th ranked team in the country on KenPom *(compared to 54th last week)

26th in adjusted offensive efficiency (110.0) *(25th last week)

115th in adjusted defensive efficiency (97.5) *(101st last week)

Notable Iowa State Individual Stats:

George Conditt IV is 53rd in the country *(4th in the Big 12) in Offensive Rebounding Percentage (13.5) *68th last week

George Conditt IV is 14th in the country *(2nd in the Big 12) in BLK% (13.91) *11th last week

George Conditt IV is 54th in the country *(3rd in the Big 12) in 2P FG% (65.9) *28th last week

Tyrese Haliburton is 38th in the country *(2nd in the Big 12) in Offensive Rating (125.4) *28th last week

Tyrese Haliburton is 54th in the country *(4th in the Big 12) in effective field goal percentage (62.4) *57th last week

Tyrese Haliburton is 14th in the country *(2nd in the Big 12) in Assist Rate (39.1) *16th last week

Tyrese Haliburton is 43rd in the country *(3rd in the Big 12) in Steal Percentage (4.04) *70th last week

Tyrese Haliburton is 64th in the country *(3rd in the Big 12) in True Shooting Percentage (63.6) *72nd last week

Tyrese Haliburton is still 1st in the country in Offensive Box Plus Minus (10.3)

Tyrese Haliburton is 8th in the country in Box Plus Minus (13.0) *6th last week

Tyrese Haliburton is 5th in the country in APG (7.7) *4th last week

Tyrese Haliburton is 9th in the country is SPG (2.6) *outside of top 10 last week

Tre Jackson is 77th in the country *(6th in the Big 12) in Steal Percentage (3.74) *unranked last week

Rasir Bolton is 84th in the country *(4th in the Big 12) in free throw percentage (86.4) *unranked last week

**no other ISU player is ranked in the top 100 of any major statistical category.**

Player by Player Efficiency:

Tyrese Haliburton (34.5 MPG)—> 21.4 USG%/29.8 PER WS: 2.9 (D+/-): [2.6]

*last week: (40 MPG) (20.9/28.6) WS: 3.0 (D+/-): [2.7]

Rasir Bolton (30.5 MPG)—> 25.0 USG%/18.5 PER WS: 1.6 (D+/-): [-0.8]

*(36.5 MPG) (24.3/17.6) WS: 1.4 (D+/-): [-0.7]

Prentiss Nixon (23.5 MPG)—> 17.9 USG%/14.3 PER WS: 0.9 (D+/-): [0.2]

*(38 MPG) (18.6/11.3) WS: 0.9 (D+/-): [0.5]

George Conditt IV (21 MPG)—> 22.3 USG%/29.1 PER WS: 1.6 (D+/-): [6.4]

*(26 MPG) (22.5/31.2) WS: 1.6 (D+/-): [6.2]

Tre Jackson (21 MPG)—> 14.2 USG%/8.1 PER WS: 0.3 (D+/-): [1.9]

*(19.5 MPG) (14.6/4.9) WS: 0.1 (D+/-): [1.0]

Michael Jacobson (19.5 MPG)—> 17.9 USG%/PER 14.3 WS: 0.9 (D+/-): [0.2]

*(20.5 MPG (17.8/14.3) WS: 0.9 (D+/-): [0.2]

Zion Griffin (15.5 MPG)—> 18.0 USG%/15.6 PER WS: 0.5 (D+/-): [0.2]

*(12.5 MPG) (19.7/15.0) WS: 0.4 (D+/-): [0.4]

Solomon Young (12.5 MPG)—> 22.3 USG%/19.5 PER WS: 1.0 (D+/-): [0.9]

*(16.5 MPG) (22.8/19.7) WS: 0.9 (D+/-): [0.6]

Terrence Lewis (11.5 MPG)—> 21.0 USG%/19.9 PER WS: 0.4 (D+/-): [-2.2]

*(23 MPG) (20.8/21.7) WS: 0.3 (D+/-): [-1.7]

Caleb Grill (8.5 MPG)—> 13.4 USG%/6.8 PER WS: 0.2 (D+/-): [1.1]

*(5 MPG) (11.9/7.3) WS: 0.2 (D+/-): [1.6]

Previewing Week 11 for Iowa State:

Jan. 15th: Iowa State (8-7) (1-2) @ #2 Baylor (13-1) (3-0)

The Big 12 has no breaks during the regular season, and this week will look prove that for the Cyclones. After welcoming Kansas to Ames last week, ISU has to travel to Waco to take on second ranked Baylor, Wednesday night.

Baylor has mowed through a relatively tough schedule so far this season, and they show no signs of slowing down. They are led by guard, Jared Butler who is averaging 16.7 PPG this season. They’re a very big team that has great size and rebounds at a very high level.

On KenPom’s rankings Baylor is ranked as the third best team in the country (one behind Kansas). The Bears are 22nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and fifth defensively.

I personally believe that Iowa State has the talent to beat any team in the country, but in this matchup it will require a nearly perfect game to slow down the Bears.

Jan. 18th: Iowa State (8-7) (1-2) @ #23 Texas Tech (10-5) (1-2)

Iowa State’s schedule is not slowing down anytime soon, as they will have to travel to Lubbock to take on last years National Champion runner-up, Texas Tech.

The Red Raiders have a very different team compared to last season, but they still have the same identity. They are still one of the best defensive teams in the country as they rank 11th in defensive efficiency–inversely they rank 94th offensively. The 27th overall team on KenPom’s rankings are led by freshman guard, Jahmi’us Ramsey who is averaging 16.8 points per game and 5.3 rebounds.

Unfortunately after dropping a few winnable games, Iowa State is now in a situation where they will need to reel off a few wins vs opponents like Texas Tech if they want to make the tournament. The Red Raiders are a very beatable team for Iowa State, they will just need to limit their mistakes, and miraculously knock down some threes.