Betting the Big 12: Week 4

We went 6-1 last weekend. I want to print out last week’s column and stick it to the fridge. Iowa State and the Seahawks were the only games we even had to sweat out. Speaking of that Iowa State ending, let it be a lesson in when you make your pick. TCU’s lack of an extra point after the garbage time touchdown preserved an Iowa State -2.5 cover, but forced anyone at -3 or better to push or lose. At the time I wrote the column a week ago, Iowa State was 2.5 point favorite, but that line shifted quite a bit. The lesson is when you see the spread where you like it, just go ahead and take it. Wait until game time, and it may shift in an unfavorable way. As far as the Big 12 goes, the biggest problem now is how do we follow up a huge week? Every team in the conference has now played at least 1 game. There are no more surprises, which means we might just hit out groove and keep this thing rolling. I’ve got more winners for ya’ll, so let’s keep making money!

THE GAMES

TCU (0-1) at #9 Texas (2-0)

Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: FOX | The Line: Texas -11.5

Max Duggan should start at QB this week, and after watching Texas’ defense last weekend, there’s no way they can be trusted to win by more than 10 points. Give me the Frogs.

Pick: TCU +11.5

Baylor (1-0) at West Virginia (1-1)

Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: ABC | The Line: Baylor -3

This is my favorite game of the weekend. It’s an absolute classic home underdog situation. West Virginia can, and I think will, win this game outright.

Pick: West Virginia +3

#17 Oklahoma State (2-0) at Kansas (0-2)

Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: ESPN | The Line: Oklahoma State -21.5

Nope. No way. I don’t like this game at all. Kansas is a disaster. But I’m pretty much not going to take Kansas to cover in any situation until I see proof that I should consider it.

Pick: Oklahoma State -21.5

Texas Tech (1-1) at Kansas State (1-1)

Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: FS1 | The Line: Kansas State -2.5

I don’t want to overreact to last week, but both of these teams outperformed expectations. With this spread being less than a field goal, might as well roll with the home team.

Pick: Kansas State -2.5

#18 Oklahoma (1-1) at Iowa State (1-1)

Kickoff: 6:30pm | TV: ABC | The Line: Oklahoma -7

This is going to be fun. Saturday night under the lights at Jack Trice Stadium, with the all black uniforms for Iowa State? Kansas State ran all over Oklahoma? Spencer Rattler gave the ball away? This is a recipe for a home cover, with the only fear being an angry Oklahoma team trying to avenge a bad loss with style points. Iowa State has come a long way to be competitive with the standard bearer for the conference. I think if the Cyclones win the turnover battle, they win this on the field.

Pick: Iowa State +7

BEST BET FROM AROUND THE COUNTRY

North Dakota State -23 vs Central Arkansas

This is the most hilariously out of place game of the weekend. It’s North Dakota State’s only scheduled game of the fall, and a showcase for QB Trey Lance before he heads to the NFL. That means he’s playing the full game, and the Bisons will try to score as much as possible. NDSU in a blowout.

NFL PICK OF THE WEEKEND

Eagles +7 at 49ers

Philly has been so bad that they’re likely to get booed at a stadium with no fans, but I’m definitely not afraid of Nick Mullens at QB for San Francisco. We’re going out on a limb and grabbing a desperate team to keep it close in a low scoring game on the road.

PROP OF THE WEEK FOR NEBRASKA FANS

Total Passing Yards allowed by Bo Pelini’s LSU defense against Vanderbilt?

O/U 300.5 yards

Enjoy the games!

SEASON RECORD: 14-7-1 (+6.3 units)