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Betting the Big 12: Week 7

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We’re about to get back on track.

NCAA Football: Kansas at West Virginia Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports

I cannot lie. Last week hurt. 1-4 record was the worst of the season. I will chalk it up to the Big 12 essentially taking the week off, forcing us to focus on the rest of the country instead. The good news is we weren’t that far off from a winning week. I don’t consider Kansas a bad beat after West Virginia struggled with them for a long time, but it should’ve been a winner nonetheless.

And on Sunday the Texans somehow found a way to turn a 7 point lead with an extra point/2pt try ahead and a minute left against the Titans into not just a loss, but a blown cover. It’s Big 12 season again, and that means we’re about to go on another winning streak.

THE GAMES

Kansas (0-4) at #20 Kansas State (3-1)

Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: FS1 | The Line: Kansas State -19.5

Pooka Williams has opted out of the season, and his last act was to return a kick for a TD to blow West Virginia’s cover a week ago. I’m a little nervous about this line, because I would’ve expected it to be higher. Kansas State is also breaking in a new QB. When it comes down to it, I just can’t trust Kansas to keep it close enough without their best offensive player.

Pick: Kansas State -19.5

Oklahoma (2-2) at TCU (1-2)

Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: ABC | The Line: Oklahoma -6.5

I think Oklahoma may have turned a corner. It was going to happen soon enough and gutting out the Red River game against Texas could be their launch point. Spencer Rattler still turns the ball over too much for my liking, but this seems like a good spot to jump on the Sooners. I’m guessing the public likes TCU as a home underdog, so we’ll go the opposite way this time.

Pick: Oklahoma -6.5

Baylor (1-1) at Texas (2-2)

Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: ESPN | The Line: Texas -9

This is a pretty simple pick. I still don’t trust Texas as a big favorite and as long as Vegas gives us more than a touchdown, we’re fading the Longhorns. No idea what to expect from Baylor other than keeping it close.

Pick: Baylor +9

#17 Iowa State (3-1) at #6 Oklahoma State (3-0)

Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: FOX | The Line: Oklahoma State -3.5

Here’s what I like about this spot for Iowa State:

  • The Cyclones won in Stillwater 2 years ago in the Brock Purdy debut game
  • Oklahoma State hasn’t played football in 21 days
  • Oklahoma State is breaking Spencer Sanders back in (we think)
  • Brock Purdy has something to prove after last year’s performance in this game

I trust the Cyclones to contain Chuba Hubbard. This game could be pretty low scoring. I like that Iowa State is getting the extra half point. Let’s be honest, this website isn’t about to fade Matt Campbell in October.

Pick: Iowa State +3.5

West Virginia (3-1) at Texas Tech (1-3)

Kickoff: 4:30pm | TV: ESPN2 | The Line: West Virginia -3

I don’t like this game, and frankly I don’t want to watch any of it. Despite the 2nd half turnaround against Kansas, I still don’t think West Virginia is that good. Texas Tech is outright bad. I’m surprised the ‘Eers are favored on the road. This is a pure “take the home underdog” spot, plug your nose, and don’t watch the game.

Pick: Texas Tech +3

BEST BET FROM AROUND THE COUNTRY

Minnesota +3.5 vs Michigan

Welcome back to the Big Ten. I’m surprised Michigan is favored here. My best guess is that the public is in on Jim Harbaugh, but his track record against ranked teams isn’t great. Let’s take the Gophers and see if Harbaugh and PJ Fleck get into a fist fight at some point.

NFL PICK OF THE WEEKEND

Steelers +1.5 at Titans

We got burned by the Titans a week ago, but they should’ve lost on the field and at the least shouldn’t have covered. I like Pittsburgh’s defense, and I love their receiving core. This game was supposed to happen 3 weeks ago, and don’t think Mike Tomlin forgot about the forced postponement due to Tennessee’s COVID outbreak.

MOUNTAIN WEST AFTER DARK PROP OF THE WEEK

What time will the last game of the weekend finish? Before or after 1:30am Central

SEASON RECORD: 24-14-1 (+8.7 units)