Betting the Big 12: Week 5

2 weeks ago we went 6-1 and I wasn’t sure how I’d ever keep up that pace, but lo and behold last week we went 6-1 again. 12-2 in 2 weeks. 20-8-1 on the season. 71% on the picks will make you dear readers a lot of money. The only thing that can slow us down is a smaller slate of games.... Actually, with 4 teams in the Big 12 on a bye, it only means we have more time to focus on the 3 games scheduled for this weekend. This is a great slate of college football and an underwhelming NFL slate. I’m feeling really confident that I’ve got more winners for you guys. Let’s get to work!

THE GAMES

#22 Texas (2-1) vs Oklahoma (1-2)

Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: FOX | The Line: Oklahoma -2.5

I love Oklahoma in this spot. Now having watched Spencer Rattler play an entire game, I can confidently say he won’t be intimidated by the atmosphere of the Red River rivalry. I trust Lincoln Riley to not lose 3 games in a row. This spread is small enough that it really feels like we’re just picking the winner of the game, but I think the Sooners easily score in the 40s and win this by 2 touchdowns. Texas’ defense is terrible, and they’ve had Oklahoma’s number the last few years. That turns around this weekend.

Pick: Oklahoma -2.5

Texas Tech (1-2) at #24 Iowa State (2-1)

Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: ABC | The Line: Iowa State -12.5

Big time letdown spot alert. Matt Campbell has made handling success a pillar of his program, but the Cyclones haven’t always done that. The counter is his personal ownage of the Texas Tech program. Iowa State hasn’t been great as a big favorite, and I think they win this game, but by about 10 points. This is of course a spot I’d love to be proven wrong.

Pick: Texas Tech +12.5

Kansas State (2-1) at TCU (1-1)

Kickoff: 3:00pm | TV: FOX | The Line: TCU -9

This is a tough game to handicap. I think Max Duggan is the most improved player in the Big 12 from last year. Skylar Thompson is like Duggan if he only marginally improved over 4 years. But conventional wisdom would say Kansas State is the right side here. I don’t think TCU is that much better than K-State. But this could also be a situation where the line is set too high, baiting everyone to take K-State and TCU wins handily. I’ll go with my gut here, because I think Chris Klieman’s team is tough to blow out.

Pick: Kansas State +9

BEST BET FROM AROUND THE COUNTRY

Florida -6.5 at Texas A&M

I love this. Florida’s offense is fantastic, and Alabama dropped 50 on A&M last week. Texas A&M is the worst program in the country per money spent on football (don’t actually do the math). It doesn’t matter what they do (“hire a championship coach!” “spend big on coordinators!” “look at our top 5 recruiting class!” “we spend a billion dollars to upgrade our stadium!”. And this year they don’t even get to fatten up their record on Alamo State A&M Tech Community College in the non-conference portion of the season. They stink. Florida by 100.

NFL PICK OF THE WEEKEND

Chargers +7.5 at Saints

Tampa Bay beat the Chargers by only 7 at home last week in a wild game that included a big comeback by the Bucs. Now the Chargers head to New Orleans, where home field advantage is the most affected by lack of a crowd. I view Tampa and New Orleans as pretty comparable teams. Justin Herbert has been unexpectedly great, making undrafted free agent wide receivers look like Pro Bowlers. Drew Brees is in decline. I definitely like the Bolts to keep it within a score.

PROP OF THE WEEK FOR KANSAS FANS

Listed attendance for the all remaining home games this season?

O/U 50,000

Enjoy the games!

SEASON RECORD: 20-8-1 (+11.2 units)