Betting the Big 12: Week 9

Last week we went 3-4, which isn’t what we’re looking for. A positive is we sniffed out the weird lines and pulled out a Texas outright win + a West Virginia easy cover. Hunter Dekkers is a friend of the column after a late touchdown to push Iowa State to a 30 point win. Thankfully, this week looks a little more normal. This isn’t a great Big 12 slate, so might as well throw some money on the games to stay invested the whole way.

THE GAMES

West Virginia (4-2) at #22 Texas (4-2)

Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: ABC | The Line: Texas -6.5

Tom Herman as an underdog is a thing of legend. His record as a favorite is much more questionable. To me, this is a kitchen sink game for West Virginia. They’re throwing out whatever they have to show how good they are.

Pick: West Virginia +6.5

Kansas (0-6) at #19 Oklahoma (4-2)

Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: ESPN | The Line: Oklahoma -37.5

You could tell me that Kansas keeps this close. But you couldn’t pay me to put money on them. Oklahoma might be up by 40 at halftime.

Pick: Oklahoma -37.5

Texas Tech (2-4) at TCU (2-3)

Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: FS1 | The Line: TCU -9

This is a pure course correction game. TCU looked great against Baylor a week ago. Texas Tech looked like pure dog doodoo against Oklahoma. There will be plenty of points on the field. Let’s back Tech to be more sharp as we don’t give in to recency bias.

Pick: Texas Tech +9

#14 Oklahoma State (4-1) at Kansas State (4-2)

Kickoff: 3:00pm | TV: FOX | The Line: Oklahoma State -12.5

Let me just say I’m very nervous about this pick. All the signs say take Kansas State as the home underdog as a good team. This line is much higher than I expected it to be. But at the end of the day, I won’t back off of it. Give me a low scoring game with Kansas State shutting down Spencer Sanders to keep it close.

Pick: Kansas State +12.5

Baylor (1-3) at #17 Iowa State (4-2)

Kickoff: 6:00pm | TV: FS1 | The Line: Iowa State -14

Matt Campbell will never say it, but I’d bet after a few Busch Lights he’d admit that he can’t stand Baylor. This is Baylor’s first trip to Ames since the infamous fight 2 years ago. Last year was TentGate, where Baylor didn’t allow Iowa State to put up tents to keep players cool in 90+ degree heat. On the field, this Baylor team stinks. Breece Hall should run all over them. I like the Cyclones comfortably.

Pick: Iowa State -14

BEST BET FROM AROUND THE COUNTRY

Clemson -5.5 vs Notre Dame

This is simple. You don’t get rich betting against Clemson. The Irish will look tempting going against a backup QB. Clemson has had a whole week of practice DJ knowing that he’s the starter. I think that matters. I think Clemson’s defense can shut down Notre Dame’s run game. This will be where they make the statement that they aren’t a Trevor Lawrence team only.

NFL PICK OF THE WEEKEND

Buccaneers -4.5 vs Saints

Don’t be concerned by a poor effort from Tompa Bay on Monday night against the Giants. That was a total “look ahead” to this game. New Orleans has had a weird year. Every game has been relatively close and they’re bad against the spread. It’s time for them to be blown out. Take the Bucs to avenge Week 1’s loss and lay the points.

RETURN OF THE PAC(12) PROP OF THE WEEK

Fluid oz of Red Bull consumed by Herm Edwards before a 9:00am local kick?

O/U 36

SEASON RECORD: 32-20-1 (+10.0 units)