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Iowa State MBB Analytics Report - Week 14 (2/10/20)

We’re on a winning streak!

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You can read last week’s analytics report here.

Last Week’s Notable Iowa State Game News:

  • Feb. 5th: Iowa State (9-12) (2-6): 61 @ #13 West Virginia (17-4) (5-3): 76

The Cyclones week could not have began any worse, to put it bluntly. They looked horrendous against the 13th ranked Mountaineers all game long. If you look at the box score it would be difficult to see where it went wrong for Iowa State, unless you look at the rebounding margin. West Virginia finished with 46 total on the night, compared to the Cyclones’ 28. I don’t know if it is physically possible to win a game with that difference, especially when WVU also shoots 50% from the field.

Even though the game looked disgusting to the average viewer, Iowa State almost out played the 13th best team in the country. The Cyclones won the turnover margin, three point shooting margin, and they shot substantially better from the free throw line. Ultimately West Virginia’s efficient play led to only three Mountaineers finishing with an offensive rating under 100, inversely had three players at 100+ led by Michael Jacobson at 124, who had a team high seven rebounds.

  • Feb. 8th: Iowa State (9-13) (2-7): 73 vs. Kansas State (9-13) (2-7): 63

Solomon Young would end up having one of the most efficient individual performances of Iowa State’s season. The junior finished with an offensive rating of 153 as he was seven of eight from the field and six of seven from the free throw line. Young somehow did not even have the highest offensive rating on the team. Terrance Lewis has a team high 165 and George Conditt IV finished at 156, as both players missed a combined three shots.

Notable Iowa State Team Stats:

  • Currently 68th ranked team in the country on KenPom *(compared to 72nd last week)
  • 44th in adjusted offensive efficiency (110.3) *(38th last week)
  • 120th in adjusted defensive efficiency (66.6) *(133rd last week)

Notable Iowa State Individual Stats:

  • George Conditt IV is 48th in the country in Offensive Rebounding Percentage (13.3%) *59th last week
  • George Conditt IV is 20th in the country in BLK% (11.28%) *18th last week

  • Tyrese Haliburton is
  • 100th in the country in Offensive Rating (120.1) *82nd last week
  • 57th in the country in effective field goal percentage (61.1%) *68th last week
  • 2nd in the country in Assist Rate (34.0%) *34th last week
  • 55th in the country in Steal Percentage (3.75%) *62nd last week
  • 56th in the country in True Shooting Percentage (63.1%) *70th last week
  • 100th in the country in 3P% (41.9) *unranked last week
  • 10th in the country in SPG (2.5) *11th last week
  • 3rd in the country in Offensive Box Plus Minus (8.7) *4th last week
  • 10th in Box Plus Minus (12.1) *12th last week)

  • Prentiss Nixon is 77th in the country in Turnover Percentage (10.2%) *62nd last week

**no other ISU player is ranked in the top 100 of any major statistical category.**

Player by Player Efficiency:

  • Tyrese Haliburton (32 MPG)—> 19.8 USG%/25.4 PER WS: 3.9 (D+/-): [3.4]

*last week: (40 MPG) (20.1/25.8) WS: 3.7 (D+/-): [3.1]

  • Rasir Bolton (31.5 MPG)—> 26.8 USG%/16.4 PER WS: 1.9 (D+/-): [-0.7]

*(32.5 MPG) (26.3/16.8) WS: 1.8 (D+/-): [-0.8]

  • Michael Jacobson (26.5 MPG)—> 17.5 USG%/12.2 PER WS: 1.0 (D+/-): [0.8]

*(22 MPG (18.2/12.6) WS: 0.9 (D+/-): [0.2]

  • Prentiss Nixon (22 MPG)—> 18.2 USG%/10.2 PER WS: 1.0 (D+/-): [0.7]

*(16.5 MPG) (18.2/9.5) WS: 0.9 (D+/-): [0.5]

  • Solomon Young (21.5 MPG)—> 22.8 USG%/21.0 PER WS: 1.7 (D+/-): [1.4]

*(21.5 MPG) (22.5/20.7) WS: 1.5 (D+/-): [1.1]

  • Tre Jackson (21 MPG)—> 13.1 USG%/6.4 PER WS: 0.4 (D+/-): [1.4]

*(29.5 MPG) (13.4/7.5) WS: 0.4 (D+/-): [1.6]

  • George Conditt IV (17 MPG)—> 22.5 USG%/25.1 PER WS: 1.7 (D+/-): [6.0]

*(9.5 MPG) (22.4/25.0) WS: 1.5 (D+/-): [6.0]

  • Terrence Lewis (16 MPG)—> 21.4 USG%/20.7 PER WS: 0.7 (D+/-): [-1.5]

*(1 MPG) (18.9/20.8) WS: 0.5 (D+/-): [-2.0]

  • Zion Griffin (8 MPG)—> 17.2 USG%/13.7 PER WS: 0.6 (D+/-): [0.9]

*(22 MPG) (17.1/14.7) WS: 0.6 (D+/-): [0.7]

  • Caleb Grill (4.5 MPG)—> 13.4 USG%/5.3 PER WS: 0.1 (D+/-): [0.9]

*(5 MPG) (13.7/5.6) WS: 0.1 (D+/-): [1.0]

What does this all mean?

The average Iowa State fan would be concerned from the Cyclones play against West Virginia, but if the Mountaineers did not start the game shooting so well, and if ISU was able to get a few rebounds., they would’ve been right in that game and I think the numbers show that.

The Cyclones clearly had one of their best games of the Big 12 season against Kansas State, which led to much of the players individual analytical stats being inflated for the week.

Tyrese Haliburton continues to be one of the most efficient players in the country on both ends of the floor, but he did unfortunately suffer a wrist injury late in the first half against Kansas State.

Solomon Young had a terrific week. His win shares and defensive box plus minus increasing by 0.2 at this point of the season, shows you how valuable he was this week for the Cyclones. Michael Jacobson increased his defensive box plus minus by a remarkable 0.6, which shows that he clearly had one of his best defensive weeks of the season.

What will Iowa State do without Tyrese Haliburton?

Tyrese Haliburton is expected to miss the rest of the season with his wrist injury, so Steve Prohm will have to make some adjustments for the upcoming week. Based on what Prohm has done in the past I would expect him to put Prentiss Nixon back into the starting lineup for Tyrese, but I would personally do something different.

Based on the numbers, Terrence Lewis would be a much smarter addition to the starting lineup. Lewis’ 20.7 PER compared to Nixon’s 10.2 proves that that Lewis would be a substantially more efficient addition to the lineup. Neither of Iowa State’s opponents this week rank in KenPom’s top 40 overall, therefore I believe that both matchups are “winnable.” Steve Prohm seems to have something out for Lewis, so I wouldn’t imagine him making this move, but I believe it would be the much smarter choice, as Nixon’s play has been trending down since about the first month of the season.