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Iowa State MBB Analytics Report - Week 15 (2/17/20)

We’re making progress.

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You can read last week’s analytics report here.

Last Week’s Notable Iowa State Game News:

  • Feb. 12th: Iowa State (10-13) (3-7): 61 @ Oklahoma (15-8) (5-5): 90

Iowa State’s first game without Tyrese Haliburton did not go so well. Prentiss Nixon filled into the starting guard role left by Haliburton, and he ended up struggling with the extra playing time. Nixon finished with an offensive rating of 70 after playing all 40 minutes. He shot 4/13 with five turnovers in the expanded role.

Solomon Young and Terrence Lewis on the other hand, continue to be the Cyclone’s two most efficient players as of late. Young finished with 12 points and an offensive rating of 120 in only 22 minutes of play. Lewis continues to play very well, as he finished with an offensive rating of 178 while he scored 15 points on 7/9 shooting.

Ultimately, what cost the Cyclones this game was there performance on the defensive end. Oklahoma did not miss in the second half while every player who appeared in the game for the Sooners had an offensive rating of 118 or better. This was in large part due to OU shooting 11/24 from behind the three point arc. Brady Manek led the way with 18 points on 8/10 shooting.

  • Feb. 15th: Iowa State (10-14) (3-8): 81 vs. Texas (14-10) (4-7): 52

Saturday afternoon was a completely different story for the Cyclones. Prentiss Nixon and Michael Jacobson combined to both have their best game in quite a while. Jacobson played out of his mind as he had a game high offensive rating of 180. He shot a blasphemous 8/9 from the field with 11 rebounds and he added 21 points as well. Nixon was not too far behind, as he finished with an offensive rating of 124. He shot 5/11 and finished with 17 total points. Most importantly he finished with only one turnover in 37 minutes of play.

Solomon Young’s string of dominance also continued. In only 24 minutes he finished 4/5 from the field, and 9/10 from the line, finishing with an offensive rating of 121. This was no-doubt one of the Cyclones best all-around games of the season.

Notable Iowa State Team Stats:

  • Currently 71st ranked team in the country on KenPom *(compared to 68th last week)
  • 38th in adjusted offensive efficiency (110.3) *(44th last week)
  • 122nd in adjusted defensive efficiency (70.2) *(120th last week)

Notable Iowa State Individual Stats:

George Conditt IV is:

  • 37th in the country in Offensive Rebounding Percentage (13.5%) *48th last week
  • 25th in the country in BLK% (10.59%) *20th last week

**no other ISU player is ranked in the top 100 of any major statistical category. (excluding Tyrese Haliburton)**

Player by Player Efficiency:

  • Prentiss Nixon (38.5 MPG)—> 18.6 USG%/10.4 PER WS: 1.1 (D+/-): [0.6]

*(22 MPG) 18.2 USG%/10.2 PER WS: 1.0 (D+/-): [0.7]

  • Michael Jacobson (26 MPG)—> 17.7 USG%/13.3 PER WS: 1.3 (D+/-): [0.8]

*(26.5 MPG) 17.5 USG%/12.2 PER WS: 1.0 (D+/-): [0.8]

  • Rasir Bolton (24 MPG)—> 26.4 USG%/16.2 PER WS: 2.0 (D+/-): [-0.5]

*last week: (31.5 MPG) 26.8 USG%/16.4 PER WS: 1.9 (D+/-): [-0.7]

  • Solomon Young (23 MPG)—> 23.2 USG%/22.0 PER WS: 1.9 (D+/-): [1.4]

* (21.5 MPG) 22.8 USG%/21.0 PER WS: 1.7 (D+/-): [1.4]

  • Terrence Lewis (20 MPG)—> 20.3 USG%/21.3 PER WS: 0.9 (D+/-): [-1.5]

*(16 MPG)—> 21.4 USG%/20.7 PER WS: 0.7 (D+/-): [-1.5]

  • Tre Jackson (19.5 MPG)—> 13.0 USG%/5.3 PER WS: 0.2 (D+/-): [1.4]

*(21 MPG) 13.1 USG%/6.4 PER WS: 0.4 (D+/-): [1.4]

  • Caleb Grill (19 MPG)—> 13.2 USG%/6.3 PER WS: 0.2 (D+/-): [0.8]

*(4.5 MPG) 13.4 USG%/5.3 PER WS: 0.1 (D+/-): [0.9]

  • George Conditt IV (17 MPG)—> 23.0 USG%/24.2 PER WS: 1.7 (D+/-): [5.7]

*(9.5 MPG) (22.4/25.0) WS: 1.5 (D+/-): [6.0]

  • Zion Griffin (11.5 MPG)—> 16.7 USG%/12.6 PER WS: 0.6 (D+/-): [1.1]

*(8 MPG) 17.2 USG%/13.7 PER WS: 0.6 (D+/-): [0.9]

What does this all mean?

Although Prentiss Nixon is coming off of his best game of the year, I think 38.5 minutes per game might be a little too high. Based on the numbers, giving at least five-ish of those minute to Terrence Lewis could make the Cyclones even more efficient.

I have to give Steve Prohm his credit as this was his best work with the rotations in quite a while. He is starting to find what is working, but unfortunately it might be a little to late. I think keeping Solomon Young’s minutes in the low 20s will be needed as he is a load in the paint, so it’s a lot of work to carry around all of that man. Young is able to play his best basketball when he is in for only a portion of the game.

Ultimately in a season were many Cyclone fans have had a plethora of complaints, it was refreshing to see an efficiently ran week of basketball for at least one of the games. Looking forward to the future–I think if coach Prohm and his staff are able to keep all nine players’ minutes fairly evenly distributed, it could set them up for a bounce back year next season.

Previewing Week 16:

It might be tough to find a win this week, as Iowa State faces two teams raked in KenPom’s top 16. If they would like to find the upset in Phog Allen, Monday night against the third ranked Jayhawks, slowing down their big man Udoka Azubuike will be key, as it seems like Kansas’ offense has ran through him this season. This would be a game where George Conditt IV would need to step up as he has been ISU best post defender all season.

Texas Tech on the other hand will need to be more of an all around performance if the Cyclones are hunting for the upset. It will definitely help with the game being played in Hilton Coliseum, but the Red Raiders are playing for the postseason, so they will be motivated. If the Cyclones are able to knock down their threes and play some tough defense, they should have a chance to keep it close, as Texas Tech has been up and down all season. But, hey Iowa State is still 11-14.