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Iowa State MBB Analytics Report - Week 16 (2/24/20)

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195 days until football season.

photo via: Iowa State Athletics

You can read last week’s analytics report here.


Last Week’s Notable Iowa State Game News:

  • Feb. 17th: Iowa State (11-14) (4-8): 71 @ #3 Kansas (22-3) (11-1): 91

This week’s first game for the Cyclones, was one of their most confusing of the season. They shot a remarkable 9 of 12 from behind the arc in the first half, for BY FAR their best half of three point shooting this season. Oddly enough, the Cyclones trailed by 10 at halftime.

Iowa State regressed back to the mean in the second half, as its three point shooting struggles continued. Michael Jacobson was the most efficient Cyclone for the second game in a row, as he finished with a team high offensive rating of 147. On the other end Kansas could not miss from three in the second half. Devon Dotson played like the BIG 12 player of the year, while he finished with an offensive rating of 189. ISU ultimately didn’t have an answer for the Jayhawks high powered offense.

  • Feb. 22nd: Iowa State (11-15) (4-9): 57 vs. Texas Tech (17-9) (8-5): 87

This game was as bad analytically as really could get. The 30 point blowout was one of Iowa State’s worst losses in the history of Hilton Coliseum. Texas Tech had every single player record an offensive rating of 108 or better. The Cyclones on the other hand had one single player record an offensive rating over 100. Solomon Young was just about the only positive aspect of Saturday’s loss. The junior big man finished with an ORTG of 188, as he finished with 18 points while he only missed one shot from the field.


Notable Iowa State Team Stats:

  • Currently 80th ranked team in the country on KenPom *(compared to 71st last week)
  • 43rd in adjusted offensive efficiency (110.0) *(38th last week)
  • 146th in adjusted defensive efficiency (100.6) *(122nd last week)

Notable Iowa State Individual Stats:

George Conditt IV is:

  • 36th in the country in Offensive Rebounding Percentage (13.6%) *37th last week
  • 23rd in the country in BLK% (10.71%) *25th last week

**no other ISU player is ranked in the top 100 of any major statistical category. (excluding Tyrese Haliburton)**


Player by Player Efficiency:

  • Prentiss Nixon (38 MPG)—> 19.5 USG%/9.8 PER WS: 0.9 (D+/-): [0.1]

*(38.5 MPG) 18.6 USG%/10.4 PER WS: 1.1 (D+/-): [0.6]

  • Rasir Bolton (31 MPG)—> 26.2 USG%/15.8 PER WS: 1.9 (D+/-): [-0.9]

*last week: (24 MPG) 26.4 USG%/16.2 PER WS: 2.0 (D+/-): [-0.5]

  • Michael Jacobson (30 MPG)—> 17.5 USG%/14.2 PER WS: 1.4 (D+/-): [0.7]

*(26 MPG) 17.7 USG%/13.3 PER WS: 1.3 (D+/-): [0.8]

  • Tre Jackson (27 MPG)—> 12.7 USG%/5.9 PER WS: 0.3 (D+/-): [1.2]

*(19.5 MPG) 13.0 USG%/5.3 PER WS: 0.2 (D+/-): [1.4]

  • Solomon Young (22.5 MPG)—> 23.1 USG%/22.4 PER WS: 2.1 (D+/-): [1.1]

* (23 MPG) 22.8 USG%/21.0 PER WS: 1.7 (D+/-): [1.4]

  • Terrence Lewis (15.5 MPG)—> 21.1 USG%/19.7 PER WS: 0.8 (D+/-): [-1.4]

*(20 MPG)—> 21.4 USG%/20.7 PER WS: 0.7 (D+/-): [-1.5]

  • Caleb Grill (13 MPG)—> 12.5 USG%/5.4 PER WS: 0.1 (D+/-): [0.5]

*(19 MPG) 13.2 USG%/6.3 PER WS: 0.2 (D+/-): [0.8]

  • George Conditt IV (13 MPG)—> 22.9 USG%/24.1 PER WS: 1.7 (D+/-): [5.4]

*(17 MPG) (23.0/24.2) WS: 1.7 (D+/-): [5.7]

  • Zion Griffin (8 MPG)—> 16.7 USG%/11.4 PER WS: 0.5 (D+/-): [0.8]

*(11.5 MPG) 16.7 USG%/12.6 PER WS: 0.6 (D+/-): [1.1]


What does this all mean?

After an incredibly slow start to the season, Michael Jacobson has began to play with a sense of urgency and he has been one of the most efficient Cyclones in the last two weeks of the season.

I personally am confused why Prentiss Nixon is still receiving nearly 40 minutes a game. He did play very well against Texas, but he has been forcing a bunch of poor decisions since that game. At this point he is not much more than an average defender, I believe the numbers say that a few of his minutes would be better dispersed else where.

EVERY SINGLE player on Iowa State SUBSTANTIALLY digressed in defensive efficiency, except oddly enough its worst defender Terrence Lewis.

Solomon Young continues to be Iowa State’s most valuable player since the loss of Tyrese Haliburton, as he leads the win shares for the second consecutive week.

Previewing Week 17:

Iowa State has two VERY winnable games this week, as they host TCU at home who ranks lower than them on KenPom’s rankings. The Horned Frogs are one of the youngest teams in the country, so this would be a great opportunity to give Steve Prohm and his staff something to build upon, heading down the home stretch of the season as well as into next year..

Oklahoma State is ranked ahead of ISU on KenPom’s rankings by nearly 20 spots, and the Cyclones will be traveling to Stillwater Saturday afternoon. The Cowboys have been up and down all season after they came into the year with some pretty lofty expectations. They have been on a role lately winning four of their last six. OK State is a very similar team to the Cyclones as they are very offensive heavy and they struggle on the other end. There is no reason Iowa State cannot play with the Cowboys.