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Iowa State MBB Analytics Report - Season Recap

We always have next year. (hopefully)

photo via:
Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports

You can read last week’s analytics report here.

Last Week’s Notable Iowa State Game News:

  • March 11: Iowa State (12-19) 71 vs. Oklahoma State (17-14) 72

The Cyclones had a gritty performance in their last game of the year, which seemed like forever ago. Caleb Grill had his best game of the season, as he recorded a team-high offensive rating of 203, after he played 39 of the 40 minutes. Prentiss Nixon and Michael Jacobson were able to close out their “presumed” Iowa State careers with solid offensive games, both finishing with an offensive rating of 117 or better.

Ultimately, it was fitting for Iowa State’s season to end the way it did. Its defensive was atrocious down the stretch of this game, making it nearly impossible to hold on to the lead. Oklahoma State’s Isaac Likekele couldn’t be stopped down the stretch, as he took the game over with 21 points leading to the Cyclones demise.

Notable Iowa State Team Stats:

  • 89th ranked team in the country on KenPom
  • 48th in adjusted offensive efficiency (109.6)
  • 147th in adjusted defensive efficiency (101.2)

Notable Iowa State Individual Stats:

George Conditt IV finished:

  • 18th in the country in Offensive Rebounding Percentage (14.8%)
  • 25th in the country in BLK% (10.26%)

Tyrese Haliburton finished:

  • 83rd in Offensive Rating (120.1)
  • 42nd in Effective Field Goal Percentage (61.1%)
  • 26th in Assist Rate (35.3)
  • 36th in STL% (3.80%)
  • 38th in True Shooting Percentage (63.1%)
  • 86th in 3-Point Percentage (41.9%)

**no other ISU player finished ranked in the top 100 of any major statistical category.

Player by Player Efficiency:

  • Tyrese Haliburton (36.7 MPG)—> 25.9 PER - WS: 3.8 - (D+/-): [3.1] - (O+/-): [9.1]

  • Rasir Bolton (30.8 MPG)—> 16.5 PER - WS: 2.3 - (D+/-): [-0.6] - (O+/-): [2.8]

  • Prentiss Nixon (29.4 MPG)—> 10.1 PER - WS: 1.0 - (D+/-): [0.4] - (O+/-): [0.2]

  • Michael Jacobson (24.8 MPG)—> 4.8 PER - WS: 1.8 - (D+/-): [0.4] - (O+/-): [1.3]

  • Tre Jackson (21.6 MPG)—> 6.5 PER WS: 0.5 - (D+/-): [0.6] - (O+/-): [0.2]

  • Solomon Young (20.8 MPG)—> 22.5 PER - WS: 2.5 - (D+/-): [1.7] - (O+/-): [2.7]

  • George Conditt IV (16.3 MPG)—> 23.9 PER - WS: 1.9 - (D+/-): [5.3] - (O+/-): [1.0]

  • Caleb Grill (13.8 MPG)—> 5.3 PER - WS: 0.2 - (D+/-): [0.8] - (O+/-): [-0.8]

  • Terrence Lewis (13.6 MPG)—> 17.8 PER - WS: 0.9 - (D+/-): [-1.3] - (O+/-): [3.6]

  • Zion Griffin (10.7 MPG)—> 16.8 USG%/10.6 PER - WS: 0.4 - (D+/-): [0.6] - (O+/-): [-0.2]

What does this all mean?

To end the season I decided to include every player’s offensive box plus minus rather than their usage percentage. Both offensive and defensive box plus minus basically equates how valuable a player is on that side of the floor above an average player.

George Conditt IV ended the season as one of the most efficient players in the country. His success in this area should equate to more playing time next season. Tyrese Haliburton was one of the most efficient all around players in the country, he obviously will not likely return to Ames next season, but if he does the Cyclones ceiling would rise immensely.

Lastly, Solomon Young quietly was far and ahead, the Cyclones best player once Tyrese was shutdown for the season. There is no reason that Solo shouldn’t be Iowa State’s offensive focal point if Haliburton leaves for the NBA.

Previewing 2020-21 Season

What I believe should be the rotation (according to the numbers)

PG: Rasir Bolton, junior

SG: Tre Jackson, sophomore

SF: Terrence Lewis, senior

PF: Xavier Foster (incoming freshman)

C: Solomon Young, senior

6th: George Conditt IV, junior

7th: Dudley Blackwell (incoming freshman)

8th: Caleb Grill, sophomore

9th: Zion Griffin, junior

10th: Darlinstone Dubar (incoming freshman)

The first thing that stands out might bet that Xavier Foster is in the starting lineup ahead of George Conditt IV. The reason behind this is that Conditt was far more effective this season off of the bench than he was in the starting lineup. Both him and Solomon Young were much more effective in a smaller role. If Steve Prohm is able to rotate his trio of big-men evenly, I believe this would be the most effective system.

Steve Prohm needs to forgive Terrence Lewis’ defensive struggles and give him more playing time. His offensive box plus minus was second best on the team, and that should warrant much more than 13.6 minutes per game, even if he is a minus defender.

The key to Iowa States success next season (if Tyrese Halliburton leaves for the NBA) will be its second guard position. I would expect Tre Jackson, Caleb Grill, Dudley Blackwell, and Darlinstone Dubar to all have to opportunity to earn the starting spot. If any of these four players are able to at least play efficiently Iowa State could have a bounce back season and I think 20 to 23 wins would be their ceiling.