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Iowa State MBB Analytics Report - Week 18 (3/9/20)

This is March?... I guess

photo via: Des Moines Register

You can read last week’s analytics report here.

Last Week’s Notable Iowa State Game News:

  • March 3: Iowa State (12-17) (5-11): 71 vs. West Virginia (19-10) (7-9): 77

Senior night began with a lot of hope and intrigue Tuesday night, that would quickly vanish for the Cyclones. West Virginia jumped out to a 13 point lead after the first 20 minutes of play.

The biggest problem in the game was without a doubt Iowa State’s inability to rebound the basketball. The Mountaineers big man duo of Derek Culver and Oscar Tshiebwe led the way with nine a piece at they went on the bring down eight more boards as a team compared to ISU.

Offensively, the Cyclones have definitely had worse performances. Four of the seven players who played 10+ minutes recorded and offensive rating of 100 or more. Ultimately the constant second chance allowed proved to be fatal.

  • March 7: Iowa State (12-18) (5-12): 63 @ Kansas State (9-21) (2-15): 79

It seemed like Iowa State began its regular season finale trailing, as Rasir Bolton did not play as he was in “concussion protocol.” Solomon Young closed out the regular season as the best Cyclone down the last month of the season. He finished this game with an offensive rating of 157, with 17 points shooting six of eight from the field.

Young was about the only success that Steve Prohm’s team could find, as Terrence Lewis was the only other Cyclone with an offensive rating of 100+. It was fitting for ISU to shoot an abysmal two of 21 from behind the three point arc, as that has been their main problem all season. You can simply not win a basketball game shooting less than 10% from three in 2020.

Notable Iowa State Team Stats:

  • Currently 89th ranked team in the country on KenPom *(compared to 84th last week)
  • 50th in adjusted offensive efficiency (109.5) *(49th last week)
  • 147th in adjusted defensive efficiency (101.3) *(129th last week)

Notable Iowa State Individual Stats:

George Conditt IV is:

  • 22nd in the country in Offensive Rebounding Percentage (14.5%) *33rd last week
  • 23rd in the country in BLK% (10.58%) *19th last week

**no other ISU player is ranked in the top 100 of any major statistical category. (excluding Tyrese Haliburton)**

Player by Player Efficiency:

  • Michael Jacobson (29 MPG)—> 17.7 USG%/14.5 PER WS: 1.7 (D+/-): [0.5]

*last week: (28 MPG) 17.5 USG%/14.6 PER WS: 1.6 (D+/-): [0.7]

  • Solomon Young (27.5 MPG)—> 23.3 USG%/23.1 PER WS: 2.6 (D+/-): [1.6]

*(28 MPG) 23.3 USG%/22.6 PER WS: 2.3 (D+/-): [1.4]

  • Caleb Grill (27 MPG)—> 11.6 USG%/4.2 PER WS: 0.1 (D+/-): [0.7]

*(8 MPG) 11.9 USG%/5.2 PER WS: 0.1 (D+/-): [1.1]

  • Rasir Bolton (26 MPG/*only vs. WVU)—> 26.4 USG%/16.4 PER WS: 2.2 (D+/-): [-0.6]

*(34 MPG) 26.2 USG%/15.8 PER WS: 2.1 (D+/-): [-0.5]

  • Prentiss Nixon (25 MPG)—> 20.3 USG%/9.5 PER WS: 0.8 (D+/-): [0.5]

*(28.5 MPG) 19.8 USG%/8.9 PER WS: 0.7 (D+/-): [0.4]

  • Tre Jackson (24.5 MPG)—> 12.7 USG%/6.6 PER WS: 0.5 (D+/-): [0.6]

*(35 MPG) 12.6 USG%/7.1 PER WS: 0.5 (D+/-): [0.9]

  • Zion Griffin (12.5 MPG)—> 16.8 USG%/10.5 PER WS: 0.4 (D+/-): [0.6]

*(7.5 MPG) 16.4 USG%/10.9 PER WS: 0.5 (D+/-): [0.7]

  • Terrence Lewis (12 MPG)—> 21.4 USG%/19.2 PER WS: 0.9 (D+/-): [-1.6]

*(17.5 MPG)—> 21.1 USG%/19.3 PER WS: 0.9 (D+/-): [-1.3]

  • George Conditt IV (12 MPG)—> 22.8 USG%/23.6 PER WS: 1.8 (D+/-): [5.4]

*(12 MPG) (23.0/24.4) WS: 1.8 (D+/-): [5.7]

  • Nate Jenkins (11 MPG/*only vs. K-State)—> 17.6 USG%/-7.0 PER WS: -0.1 (D+/-): [-1.7]


What does this all mean?

Since Tyrese Haliburton went down with injury, Solomon Young asserted himself as the best player on Iowa State. There is no reason that he should not be viewed as the best player on the team heading into postseason play. He leads the team in win shares, and he is second only behind Conditt in PER and defensive box plus minus while playing almost twice the amount of minutes.

Caleb Grill really struggled after receiving the first start of his career Saturday, in Manhattan. He recorded an offensive rating of 62 and his defense struggled as well. The freshman will likely have an increased role next season, but he has shown flashes at time, so I will stay optimistic.

Lastly, Tre Jackson was not able to build off his momentum from last week, but he should still provide optimism heading into next season, as he has dramatically improved offensively since the beginning of the season.

Previewing Week 19 (Big 12 Tournament):

The Cyclones enter this year’s tournament as the ninth best seed as well as the ninth best team according the The rest of the field proceeds accordingly:

  1. Kansas (1st on KenPom)
  2. Baylor (3rd)
  3. Oklahoma (35th)
  4. Texas (61st)
  5. Texas Tech (21st)
  6. West Virginia (10th)
  7. TCU (82nd)
  8. Oklahoma State (52nd)
  9. Iowa State (89th)
  10. Kansas State (92nd)

Iowa State will be matched up with Oklahoma State in Wednesday’s eight nine matchup. It will be tough for ISU, as the Cowboys have been playing some of their best basketball of the season as of late coming off of an absolute bloodbath against Texas winning by 22. Iowa State on the other hand has clearly not been playing well.

Oklahoma State is primarily a defensive team as they rank in the top 50 in the country in that area. Its leading scorer is senior, Cameron McGriff with 12.2 points and 6.6 rebounds a game, but they’re are overall a very balanced team. If Iowa State magically advances to the next round the rest of the bracket is show below: