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Betting the Big 12: Week 3

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We were so close to back-to-back profitable weeks.

Louisiana v Iowa State Photo by David K Purdy/Getty Images

The NFL is a cruel mistress. We went 3-3 last week after suffering the true definition of a “bad beat”. We’ve all seen it on SVP’s Sportscenter. The Panthers (+9.5) kicked a field goal to cut a deficit to 7 points with 2 minutes left. All we needed was Tampa to pick up a first down and the game was over. Instead, Leonard Fournette took the first play after the onside kick 50 yards for a touchdown to kick it back to 14 points. Carolina brought it back but left us 2 yards and 1.1 units short. The good news is this week gives us a full slate of Big 12 conference football. Back in our comfort zone, we’re about to make it big this week. Let’s get after it!

THE GAMES

Kansas State (0-1) at #3 Oklahoma (1-0)

Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: FOX | The Line: Oklahoma -28

When it comes to this conference, you usually don’t get rich betting against Oklahoma, but I’m going to here. I don’t think the Missouri State game should teach you anything about this particular Sooner squad. I know they’ll score points, but I’m going to bank on the defense struggling against K-State’s offense. The final will be something like 49-28, which is enough for me. And don’t forget, Kansas State was the only team to beat Oklahoma in the regular season a year ago.

Pick: Kansas State +28

Iowa State (0-1) at TCU (0-0)

Kickoff: 12:30pm | TV: FS1 | The Line: Iowa State -2.5

Iowa State has a couple of things going for them here. 1) They’ve played a game with real game reps. TCU hasn’t. 2) They scored 49 points on this TCU team last year, and that defense had multiple NFL players. Matt Campbell will have this team much more ready to go, and TCU might be playing multiple QBs, or at the very least their best QB might not play.

Pick: Iowa State -2.5

#8 Texas (1-0) at Texas Tech (1-0)

Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: FOX | The Line: Texas -18.5

Let’s see..... Tech gave up a million passing yards to Houston Baptist. Sam Ehlinger threw it all over the yard against UTEP. It only makes sense to pick... TEXAS TECH. I’m guessing the world will be betting on Texas, so let’s fade the public and count on Tech putting up enough points to keep it close into the 4th quarter.

Pick: Texas Tech +18.5

West Virginia (1-0) at #15 Oklahoma State (1-0)

Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: ABC | The Line: Oklahoma State -7.5

Okie State looked terrible on offense without Spencer Sanders, who is not expected play this game. Like, they couldn’t even pick up 1st downs. I understand why they are favored, but we’re picking Jarrett Doege and an improved West Virginia team. Sing it with me, “Country Roads! Take me Home....”

Pick: West Virginia +7.5

Kansas (0-1) at Baylor (0-0)

Kickoff: 6:30pm | TV: ESPNU | The Line: Baylor -17.5

It’s pretty simple. I just don’t want any part of putting money on this Kansas team. It doesn’t even bother me that Baylor hasn’t played yet.

Pick: Baylor -17.5

BEST BET FROM AROUND THE COUNTRY

Auburn -7.5 vs Kentucky

I almost wonder if I’m missing something here. Auburn brings back QB Bo Nix and coach Gus Malzahn. Kentucky lost Lynn Bowden to the NFL. There wasn’t a single player in the country who was more vital to their offensive production than him in 2019. Let’s take the Tigers to open SEC season with a statement.

[Unsponsored] NFL PICK OF THE WEEKEND

Seahawks -5 vs Cowboys

This is the Russell Wilson MVP season that has been promised for a few years now. I’m proclaiming it right here. He’s just unfair. I’m also looking at a 2nd Seahawks Super Bowl come February. Like, the Seahawks should have to get 20 yards for every first down instead of 10. Pair that up with a Dallas defense that can’t stop the pass, and we have the recipe for a winner.

SIR YACHT’S B1G PROP OF THE WEEK

How many Nebraska fanless home games will count toward the sellout streak?

O/U 3.5

Enjoy the games!

SEASON RECORD: 8-6-1 (+1.4 units)