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Betting the Big 12: Week 5

Welcome to Brocktober 2021!

NCAA Football: Kansas State at Oklahoma State Sarah Phipps-USA TODAY Sports

Brocktober is a month for winning. This column is coming off 3 straight winning weeks. We’re back over 50% on the season. That sure sounds like a recipe for success. Conference play is in full swing. This oracle of the Big 12 is seeing the board clearly, and I must be honest, this week’s slate is extremely hard to handicap. Let’s lean on that Brocktober magic and get back to work!

THE GAMES

Texas (3-1) at TCU (2-1)

Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: ABC | The Line: Texas -4

A lot has been said about TCU’s 7-2 record against Texas since joining the Big 12. TCU also struggles in the week before this rivalry game. Sound familiar? Texas is not back, but they can score some points. We’re 4-0 against the spread with Texas this year. I feel like the Sark whisperer. SMU ran for about 300 yards against TCU last week. Bijan Robinson controls the game and the Longhorns win it by 2 scores.

Pick: Texas -4

#6 Oklahoma (4-0) at Kansas State (3-1)

Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: FOX | The Line: Oklahoma -11.5

I guess the big story here is Kansas State’s uncertain QB situation. Skylar Thompson probably won’t play. Will Howard is likely the guy. Does the K-State QB matter? They always seem to play the exact same, no matter who. The question we have to ask is: will this be the week Oklahoma’s offense wakes up? I say not yet. There probably won’t be a ton of points scored here after shootouts the last 2 years, both K-State wins. Oklahoma can win the game this time around, but it’s gonna be close in Manhattan.

Pick: Kansas State +11.5

Texas Tech (3-1) at West Virginia (2-2)

Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: ESPN2 | The Line: West Virginia -7

The year is 2021 but it could easily be 2011 or 2001. Texas Tech cannot stop anyone on defense. We just can’t feel comfortable with that. West Virginia is good at home. Leddie Brown should run all over them, and the Mountaineers cover at home.

Pick: West Virginia -7

Kansas (1-3) at Iowa State (2-2)

Kickoff: 6:00pm | TV: FS1 | The Line: Iowa State -34

Lets not overthink this. Kansas’ defense is terrible. Iowa State torched UNLV and I’m not sure that Kansas is a whole lot better than them. We’re not fading the Cyclones on the first Saturday of Brocktober.

Pick: Iowa State -34

#21 Baylor (4-0) at #19 Oklahoma State (4-0)

Kickoff: 6:00pm | TV: ESPN2 | The Line: Oklahoma State -3.5

This is probably the hardest game to handicap for the entire weekend, because both teams have been unpredictable. Oklahoma State played their cleanest game of the year last weekend. Baylor showed that they might be pretty good. Gerry Bohannon is not turning the ball over, and we know their special teams are good. This feels like a field goal game either way, so we’ll bet on the underdog.

Pick: Baylor +3.5

BEST BET FROM AROUND THE COUNTRY

LSU -3 vs Auburn

Somehow people think Auburn is good. They are not. Bo Nix is not going to Baton Rouge at night and covering. This is an electric atmosphere and LSU takes care of business easily.

NFL PICK OF THE WEEKEND

Lions +3 at Bears

Look, this is coming from a Bears fan. We have a coach with a death wish to lose his job. The QB options are Nick Foles, Andy Dalton with a bad knee, and Justin Fields with Andy Dalton’s playbook. Detroit is playing hard, and should be extremely motivated to get a win after getting one stolen from them at the last second a week ago.

PROP OF THE WEEK FOR KANSAS FANS

Will Kansas score a special teams TD against Iowa State?

YES +200

NO -300

SEASON RECORD: 17-16 (-0.5 units)