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Betting the Big 12: Week 7

Beware the spooky lines this October.

NCAA Football: West Virginia at Baylor Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

It’s hard to believe, but we are already starting the second half of the college football regular season. Gone are the days of anticipation of where our teams can go. We have a pretty good idea at this point. Spooky season is officially in full effect. Speaking of, there are some spooky lines lingering out there this weekend.

I did some math before putting this week’s picks together. On the season, we are hitting 52% of our picks. That’s not bad at all! Unfortunately, it basically leaves us at even money for the year. In games strictly involving Big 12 teams, we are hitting 57% of our picks for the season. The Oklahoma miracle certainly helped! But this is how we get ahead. So, this week we are doing something a little bit different. We’re leaving the rest of the college slate alone to focus on what we do best. Let’s go!

THE GAMES

#12 Oklahoma State (5-0) at #25 Texas (4-2)

Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: FOX | The Line: Texas -4

How does Texas respond to the most soul crushing (and hilarious) loss imaginable? The last 12 years of their program says, not well. I’ve had no luck gauging where Oklahoma State is week-to-week. They are still undefeated, and starting to get some respect in the polls. They say defense travels. I’ll take the ‘Pokes to keep it within a field goal, either as an outright winner or loser.

Pick: Oklahoma State +4

#19 BYU (5-1) at Baylor (5-1)

Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: ESPN | The Line: Baylor -6.5

Here comes the New Big 12 into the spotlight. Now this pick goes against my every instinct to take the unranked home favorite, I think BYU is bound for a bounce back from a crushing home loss. Baylor is flying a little too high after dominating West Virginia. Water finds it’s level this week as this one stays close for the Mormons.

Pick: BYU +6.5

Texas Tech (4-2) at Kansas (1-4)

Kickoff: 3:00pm | TV: ESPN+ | The Line: Texas Tech -17

Still not ready to take Kansas under any circumstance. The O/U at 68 is probably not high enough, as Tech should hit 50 points here. A couple of stops will do enough to get them a cover on the road.

Pick: Texas Tech -17

TCU (3-2) at #4 Oklahoma (6-0)

Kickoff: 6:30pm | TV: ABC | The Line: Oklahoma -13.5

New QB, who dis? Caleb Williams should make a huge difference here for Oklahoma’s offense, but what I’m betting on here is Zach Evans running on the defense. Expect points. Expect Williams to have a bigger adjustment period to being the starter than expected. Frogs keep it within 10 points.

Pick: TCU +13.5

Iowa State (3-2) at Kansas State (3-2)

Kickoff: 6:30pm | TV: ESPN2 | The Line: Iowa State -6.5

Ready for a hostile crowd? Farmageddon has suddenly become the hot rivalry in the New Big 12. The last few meetings have been great theater, from the pass interference that wasn’t, to a dramatic Iowa State comeback, and a 45-0 steamrolling a year ago in Ames. Kansas State will not roll over. Skylar Thompson is back in the lineup. This pick is more about being scared of laying points in Manhattan. I think Iowa State takes the game by a field goal, and the purple kitties cover.

Pick: Kansas State +6.5

BONUS NEW BIG 12 PICK

Cincinnati -21 vs UCF

Ok, so I had one more pick in me after all. But this one counts, right? It’ll be a Big 12 game within the next 2 years. So lets do it. As much as we groan about the plight of Cincinnati getting to the CFP as a Group of 5, last week they showed me that they aren’t taking weeks off. UCF is going to struggle to score against this defense without their star, Dillon Gabriel. The Bearcats are right where they need to be in the polls, and they’re going to roll here.

NFL PICK OF THE WEEKEND

Raiders +3.5 at Broncos

What a week it’s been for the Raiders. As ugly as the Jon Gruden ordeal was, and as much as he needed to go away, I’m intrigued by the on field impact. Few things are more reliable in gambling than the first week of an interim coach. It’s good that this game is on the road. Vegas covers and I think wins it outright.

PROP OF THE WEEK FOR WEST VIRGINIA FANS

Combined adult beverages consumed in Waco for BYU-Baylor?

O/U 0.5

SEASON RECORD: 24-22 (-0.2 units)