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Betting the Big 12: Week 4

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Conference play is here. Time to jump on board.

NCAA Football: Iowa State at UNLV Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Vegas week turned out to be a rousing success. I hope you all followed along because we went 6-3 without a ton of stress all things considered. That’s back to back winning weeks. We’re also 2-0 on NFL picks. The confidence is high as we finally head into Big 12 conference play. This is a very appealing slate of games. We’re ready to keep this thing going and win some more. On to the games!

THE GAMES

Texas Tech (3-0) at Texas (2-1)

Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: ABC | The Line: Texas -9.5

The Texas Back-Meter is still sitting on “Not Back” and beating Texas Tech won’t change that. I think the Texas QB change might have been the spark they needed. This is a big home game that they need to win or the Sark questions may start to be asked already. Longhorns win it by 10.

Pick: Texas -9.5

SMU (3-0) at TCU (2-0)

Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: FS1 | The Line: TCU -9.5

SMU can really move the ball through the air. I’m torn here because I think TCU will end up being pretty good but this game screams shootout so I’ll take the points with the underdog. TCU wins the game but SMU makes it interesting in their biggest game of the season.

Pick: SMU +9.5

#14 Iowa State (2-1) at Baylor (3-0)

Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: FOX | The Line: Iowa State -7

Baylor ain’t played nobody. And this is not a rivalry, no matter who is pushing for it. But this game will be close for comfort. I like Iowa State’s chances to win, but I’m skittish about laying more than a touchdown on the road. I can see this being a 24-20 type game which is enough for Baylor to cover.

Pick: Baylor +7

Kansas (1-2) at Duke (2-1)

Kickoff: 3:00pm | TV: Why? | The Line: Duke -16

Bet it and forget it. Check the score the next morning to see how it went.

Pick: Kansas +16

#25 Kansas State (3-0) at Oklahoma State (3-0)

Kickoff: 6:00pm | TV: ESPN+ | The Line: Oklahoma State -5.5

So we have a ranked team as an underdog on the road to an unranked team again? That’s a system play. The real analysis here is that Kansas State is flying pretty high after beating up a good Nevada team, and I’m not sure if Will Howard is ready to hit the road. The line is a little high for my liking, but I’ll take the home team anyway as they look to prove how good they are.

Pick: Oklahoma State -5.5

West Virginia (2-1) at #4 Oklahoma (3-0)

Kickoff: 6:30pm | TV: ABC | The Line: Oklahoma -17

This many points is a lot considering what both of these teams did last week. I think Vegas is trying to bait us a bit, but I like Oklahoma to have an offensive breakout here. They own this series and I think they break 40 points in this one.

Pick: Oklahoma -17

BEST BET FROM AROUND THE COUNTRY

Air Force -4 vs Florida Atlantic

FAU is heading out to Colorado with only a week to prepare for the triple option. Air Force looks tuned up and could be a sneaky threat in the Mountain West. I’m certainly expecting them to take care of business at home and win by at least a touchdown.

NFL PICK OF THE WEEKEND

Patriots -3 vs Saints

The Patriots throttled the Jets last week with a turnover-prone QB. Do you think this week will be any different with Jameis Winston in Foxborough?

PROP OF THE WEEK FOR KANSAS FANS

Sideline temperature on Iowa State’s side in Waco?

O/U 115 degrees

SEASON RECORD: 12-13 (-2.3 units)