Betting the Big 12: Week 11

I think Big 12 has finally broken me. This league has been insane all year, but now we’re getting to the point where Oklahoma State is losing games by 20+ points in back to back weeks, and Texas is actually covering spreads as a road favorite??? Make it make sense. While I’m in a bit of a rut on the Big 12 picks, I figured this is a good time to share some advice on how to handle a rough patch:

Put less money on the games for 1 week

This is a personal favorite move of mine. Throw $5 on the games you like while you get back on track, or don’t put any money down at all. Just track what you like to prove to yourself you know how to handicap games until you feel comfortable stepping back up with actual money on the line. It’s like studying in school or a practice exam before the real thing.

Don’t chase

We’ve all been there. After a rough day, it’s 9:30 at night, when you really need a winner, so you boot up the gambling app and take the over in Oregon State vs Arizona. Next thing you know it’s 12:45am and you’re trying to will some more points on the scoreboard. It’s not good for you. If things aren’t going well, this is not a strategy that will turn things around. You’ll just wake up tired the next morning and bitter about your last pick of the night not going well.

If you’re really down bad, just find three games you love and try to go 2-1

Sometimes all it takes is a winning day.

Have fun with it, bet on fun outcomes

None of us are experts. We’re just trying to have a good time. There’s nothing worse in my world than betting an under and having it turn out to be a high scoring game. If you’re down, bet a couple of overs for good offenses and root for fun football.

THE GAMES

Oklahoma (5-4) at West Virginia (3-6)

Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: FS1 | The Line: Oklahoma -8

Sheesh that Sooner defense. Neither team will have trouble scoring. I just don’t know how Oklahoma can be trusted laying that many points on the road when they can’t stop anyone.

Pick: West Virginia +8

Iowa State (4-5) at Oklahoma State (6-3)

Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: ESPNU | The Line: Iowa State -1.5

Oh, so Oklahoma State is completely out of gas? Not sure what’s happened with Gundy’s guys to make them so non-competitive the last two weeks. But now 4-5 Iowa State is favored in Stillwater? Make that make sense. It’s a wonky line that I’m sure will make the public pounce on Okie State. I’m worried about Iowa State here, but they’ve pulled me back in one more time.

Pick: Iowa State -1.5

#19 Kansas State (6-3) at Baylor (6-3)

Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: FS1 | The Line: Baylor -2.5

From a pure football perspective, this is the game of the day. The loser is out of the Big 12 championship chase. Adrian Martinez looked decent last week in his return. This just feels like a good spot to go against conventional wisdom and back the road team as a short dog.

Pick: Kansas State +2.5

Kansas (6-3) at Texas Tech (4-5)

Kickoff: 6:00pm | TV: ESPN+ | The Line: Texas Tech -3.5

Shoutout to our brothers in Lawrence for getting bowl eligible and bringing this stat to our attention:

Perfect. No notes.

Texas Tech has been good at home. This is a weird line and the Red Raiders desperately need this to have a chance at a bowl game.

Pick: Texas Tech -3.5

#4 TCU (9-0) at #18 Texas (6-3)

Kickoff: 6:30pm | TV: ABC | The Line: Texas -7

This is a slap in the face to TCU. Finally in the CFP top 4, they are primed to get maximum exposure this week in a game everyone expects them to lose. I know Texas covered last week, but that was also a game that they led 31-10 and almost gave away, again. Even if you think Texas wins this game (I happen to think they won’t), there’s no way you can trust them to win by more than a touchdown with how bad the defense is in the 2nd half, and how poorly they play with leads.

Pick: TCU +7

BEST BET AROUND THE COUNTRY

Iowa +1 vs Wisconsin

What? You didn’t think the worst Iowa team in a decade would still find a way to go 8-4? You must be new around here. Thank the B1G West and the emergence of a running back. This game will be over in 2.5 hours, be horrifying to watch, and Iowa will grind out a win. Wisconsin has already dumped their coach, and is not good enough to be a road favorite at Kinnick.

NFL PICK OF THE WEEKEND

Colts +6 vs Raiders

Who wouldn’t want to bet on a first time head coach with no play caller and Sam Ehlinger as his QB? The whole Jeff Saturday saga has been weird all week. Everyone has been burying the Colts, and with good reason. They’re a bad football team. But there is one adage that (almost) always rings true in betting on football, and that’s the interim coach bounce. If I can count on anything, at least Saturday will be a rah rah guy and have his team ready to play. It doesn’t hurt that the Raiders are miserable and bad themselves.

Season record: 36-39-3 (-6.9 units)