Betting the Big 12: Week 10

So the first CFP rankings of the season are out, and to nobody’s surprise the Big 12 is starting from a position of disrespect, with 1-loss Alabama ranked ahead of undefeated TCU. I’m sure a lot of this is done to start a conversation since this stuff really doesn’t matter yet. But it does. Just look at how the committee chair described the TCU-Alabama debate:

To me a balanced offense and defense is a team that hasn’t lost any of it’s games, but what do I know. I just watched Alabama give up 52 points in a loss to Tennessee. And TCU has already beaten the two highest ranked teams on it’s schedule. The complaint from the committee going forward will be about lack of recent quality wins. Meanwhile, the loser of Tennessee-Georgia won’t be dropped below the Frogs, and neither will the loser of Ohio State-Michigan. This stuff does matter, right now. When ESPN says “it’s early and everything will sort itself out” what they mean is if TCU loses a game they can TCU wasn’t that good after all. The 12 team CFP can’t get hear soon enough because we’re going on 5 years of a guarantee of 2 SEC participants regardless of what the other conferences do.

Rant over. On to a gambling rant. West Virginia broke our hearts at the last second that derailed the entire weekend. But, we hit UCF against Cincy which is basically a Big 12 game and an NFL pick that got us to 3-3 for the week. There’s still time to have a strong November and a few good looking lines, so let’s have a weekend.

THE GAMES

Texas Tech (4-4) at #7 TCU (8-0)

Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: FOX | The Line: TCU -9

Texas Tech has been good at home, until last week at least, but pretty dreadful on the road. This is a big spot for TCU and while I can see Tech keeping it close for awhile, there’s no guarantee that TCU won’t score a meaningless, last second TD to cover.

Pick: TCU -9

Baylor (5-3) at Oklahoma (5-3)

Kickoff: 2:00pm | TV: ESPN+ | The Line: Oklahoma -3.5

This is a weird game, and a weird spot for 2 teams that don’t have any real hope to win the conference and have underperformed preseason expectations. I still am not convinced Oklahoma is that great after watching them in person. Just take the points.

Pick: Baylor +3.5

West Virginia (3-5) at Iowa State (3-5)

Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: ESPN+ | The Line: Iowa State -7

Iowa State has lost 5 straight games. I understand why we’re favored here, but until I see it happen, there’s no way I can expect them to lay this many points against anyone. I hope I finally get proven wrong.

Pick: West Virginia +7

#18 Oklahoma State (6-2) at Kansas (5-3)

Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: FS1 | The Line: Oklahoma State -1.5

Things are unraveling a bit in Lawrence. That 5-0 start feels like a long time ago. I have no idea what the heck happened with Oklahoma State last week, but I feel confident it won’t happen two weeks in a row.

Pick: Oklahoma State -1.5

#24 Texas (5-3) at #13 Kansas State (6-2)

Kickoff: 6:00pm | TV: FS1 | The Line: Texas -2.5

Yeah, yeah. I know this is a trap line, but so was the last Texas game and they lost outright there too. The Horns get wayyyyy too much respect in Vegas, so I’m counting on K-State to send them home with another L but somehow move them up in the CFP rankings.

Pick: Kansas State +2.5

BEST BET AROUND THE COUNTRY

Ohio State -38.5 vs Northwestern

Come on. We all saw Northwestern last week. They are probably the worst P5 team in the country. Ohio State’s backups will keep scoring on them.

NFL PICK OF THE WEEKEND

Falcons +3 vs Chargers

The Chargers continue to get respect in Vegas and I don’t understand why. The Falcons are a weird team that can only run the ball. Well, the Chargers struggle a lot against the run. The wrong team is favored here.

PROP OF THE WEEK FOR IOWA STATE FANS

How many more wins for Iowa State this season?

O/U 1.5

Season record: 34-35-2 (-4.5 units)