The Iowa State Men’s Basketball Team will take the floor for the first time on Monday, November 7th against IUPUI inside the friendly confines of Hilton Coliseum. Questions abound for this year as Iowa State looks to replace a few key members of last year’s Sweet Sixteen squad. Can the Cyclones replace a large majority of their offense? Will this team continue to play sweltering defense? Can the newcomers provide immediate help? Will our staff be even remotely correct about what happens this season?

Without further adieu:

smddee

Iowa State’s Non-Conference Record (13 games): 10-3

The Cyclones should get off to a quick start 3-0 before heading to Portland to take on Villanova in the first game of the Phil Knight Invitational. A probable loss to the Cats would set up a matchup against Portland and then any of UConn/Oregon/Alabama/Michigan State. I like Iowa State’s chances of picking up one win at the least, and maybe surprising a blue blood somewhere along the line. The Clones then welcome St. John’s to Hilton Coliseum as part of the Big 12/ Big East Challenge, where I like Iowa State’s chances to stymie what should be an OK Johnnie’s squad. A trip to Iowa City will provide the final non-conference slip-up before rounding out the non-Big 12 with a beatdown of a down-on-their-luck Missouri team in January.

Iowa State’s Conference Record: 7-11

To the surprise of absolutely no one, the Big 12 is a blood bath for the 20th year in a row. Kansas, Baylor, and Texas Tech have all been to the Final Four within the last four years, Texas may be the most talented team in the league, TCU is a top 25 team, and Oklahoma State and Oklahoma both provide resistance towards the bottom of the conference. Kansas State and West Virginia are both set for down years, but life in the Big 12 is no sure thing. Iowa State will have to bring the Magic back this year if they want to break into the top half of this conference. The Cyclones only won 4 conference home games last year, a number that needs to get closer to 6 if they want to be taken seriously.

Night after night Iowa State will be tested, but this brain-melting stretch of games, in particular, will really put this team in a blender.

1/7: @ 14 TCU

1/10: 25 Texas Tech

1/14: @ 5 Kansas

1/17: 12 Texas

I like the Clones to get 3 out of 4 against WVA & KSU and stumble into the other 4 wins along the way.

All Big 12 First Team (Denote Player of the Year)

G: Mike Miles Jr. TCU (POY)

G: Jalen Wilson KU

G: Adam Flagler BU

F/G: Kevin McCullar KU

F: Keyonte George BU

3 Random Big 12 Predictions

1. Baylor wins the Big 12. The Bears lose start players James Akinjo, Kendall Brown, Matthew Mayer, and Jeremy Sochan but are still set to reload and go the distance this year. Junior guard LJ Cryer returns from injury to bolster the best backcourt in the Big 12 alongside POY candidate Adam Flagler. The addition of stretch 4 Jalen Bridges from West Virginia will provide relief while Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua recovers from a knee injury. The Bears spouted the 8th best offense and 13th best defense last year (KenPom) and I don’t expect that to change this season.
2. Kansas has a “down” year. The Jayhawks will welcome in a few new faces Iowa State fans will come to hate (Gradey Dick anyone?), but Bill Self and co. will have to work especially hard to replace 4 starters from their NCAA Championship season last year. But, because Kansas is Kansas, a “down” year for them may as well be finishing outside the top 2 in the Big 12
3. The Big 12 get 7 teams into the NCAA Tournament. Oklahoma State, now back from a postseason ban, should round out a similar group of teams that made the dance last year.

3 Random Iowa State Predictions

1. The Cyclones win a game not scoring 55 points. This one is pretty self explanatory considering the Clones had wins after scoring 47, 51, 54, and 54 last year. The offense PROBABLY didn’t get better after the loss of Isaiah Brockington, so the defense will be relied on heavily, yet again.
2. Gabe Kalscheur will shoot better than 30% from 3 this year. Last year, Kalscheur shot an abysmal 23% on just under 5 (!!!) 3s per game. Those number have to improve if this team has any hope in replacing Tyrese Hunter and Brockington’s offense from last year. Gabe has shown he can do it, shooting 41% and 34% from 3 his freshman and sophomore years at Minnesota, but has since regressed.
3. Osun Osunniyi will be the best Defensive Center Iowa State has had in the last 20 years. The St. Bonaventure transfer is a two-time A-10 Defensive Player of the Year and is the Bonnies all time blocks leader. Osunniyi will have a chance to anchor a historically good Iowa State defense that prides itself on grinding out stops and slowing games to a crawl. Last year, Osunniyi averaged 2.9 blocks per game, the 8th best mark in all of college basketball. I expect that to continue this year.

Iowa State Floor

Stop me if you’ve heard this before but Iowa State will struggle to score the ball this year. However, one possibility that we may not be considering is that the defense takes a step back as well. The Cyclones will need to replace effort guys who didn’t care about doing dirty work (see Conditt, George), but if this group of guys doesn’t buy in and effort starts to slip? With no offense to rely on night in and night out, things could go South quickly for a program that needs consistency and time to build chemistry before next year’s recruiting class. What if Gabe Kalscheur can’t handle the additional volume scoring duties he will no doubt receive? What if the Iowa State backcourt just isn’t talented enough to play in the Big 12? These are all very real possibilities that I very much hope do not come true.

Iowa State Ceiling

On the other hand, if Iowa State’s deffense is even close to how good they were last year, and the offense improves even slightly, this team will be outrageously dangerous. It’s no secret this year’s team will follow the same formula as last year: Slow the tempo to a halt, grind out stops, and out-hustle the opponent. The formula clearly works - just ask LSU and Wisconsin - and Otz is playing to his team’s strengths. With a few tweaks to the offense and the emergence of a few new faces, this Iowa State team could absolutely make its way back to the Sweet Sixteen.

Summarize Iowa State’s Season with a GIF

Dylan Coon

Iowa State’s Non-Conference Record: 10-3

The Phil Knight invitational will be a really good early test for this team. We play Villanova off the bat with a new head coach, and if we win we likely play North Carolina. Yikes. If we lose to Nova, we play Portland. We’re guaranteed three games, I think we either beat Villanova or Portland and secure a 1-2 record.

Looking elsewhere, St. John’s, Iowa, and Mizzou are our biggest non-con matchups, I think it’s likely we go 2-1, I wouldn’t be shocked by 3-0. Iowa is a middle of the pack Big 10 team in a down year for the conference, Mizzou is basically an entirely new, but still not good team, after a coaching change, and St. John’s is projected to finish in the middle of a top-heavy Big East. Cyclones need to take care of business, because the Big 12 is a GAUNTLET.

Iowa State’s Conference Record: 6-12

Quick math, does a 16-15 Iowa State team make the tournament? Maybe. Defense travels, but offense doesn’t especially when you don’t have much to begin with. This is how the Big 12 season starts: #5 Baylor in Ames with no students, @Oklahoma, @ #14 TCU (will probably be top 10 by then), home against #25 Texas Tech with no students, @ defending champs Kansas, and then my favorite game of the season, v. Texas in Hilton. So, if everything goes right, we start Big 12 1-5. That’s just how it is this year. We have to protect Hilton, because road wins are going to be hard to come by. If we come out of the Big 12 with 5+ wins, that’s nothing to be ashamed of.

Also, I think the Big 12 is the only conference Iowa State wouldn’t have a winning record in this year. Come at me.

All Big 12 First Team

G- Mike Miles Jr. TCU POY

G- Keyonte George - Baylor

G- Avery Anderson III - Oklahoma State

F- Jalen Wilson - Kansas

C- Osun Osunniyi - Iowa State

3 Random Big 12 Predictions

1. TCU wins the conference outright. Jamie Dixon is onto something. Eddie Lampkin and Mike Miles Jr. are gonna Kobe and Shaq it up for TCU this year. They’re returning almost their entire team and they were on a roll in the late stretch of last season, almost beating Arizona in the tournament as an 8 seed.
2. Texas underwhelms, a whole lot of me-first guys that don’t really fit. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice... can’t get fooled again. Chris Beard cleaned house on the transfer market last season too, and where did it get those Longhorns? When one of your star transfers (won’t name names) says he wants the ball less, that’s cause for concern.
3. Keyonte George is must watch tv. A super athletic, ultra-quick, dunk it on your momma guard for Baylor is going to be super fun. The backcourt is a little crowded in Waco, but I think he’ll set himself apart.

3 Random Iowa State Predictions

1. Tamin Lipsey becomes the point guard of the future. Lipsey is a Cyclone through and through. The born and raised freshman is going to be getting a lot more playing time with the absence of Jeremiah Williams due to injury, and there will be a learning curve to the physicality of the Big 12 for Lipsey, but what impressed me the most about him at Ames High, he plays at his own pace and makes the right decision almost every time. Exactly what you want out of your point guard.
2. The Bonaventure Bros are the backbone of our team. Jaren Holmes and Osun Osunniyi are new to Iowa State, but already have a built-in chemistry. I expect Holmes to lead our offense, and Osunniyi to anchor our defense. These two will quickly emerge as fan-favorites, and Osunniyi is really going to be our first shot-blocking presence since Jameel McKay, I’d take odds for Osunniyi to win Big 12 Defensive player of the year right now.
3. I think our biggest X-Factors are the two Kings. Tre and Eli King are both very exciting players. Tre King sat out last year but will be a great 3-D bully ball wing/post player who can defend damn near anyone thanks to his size and speed. Eli King is another freshman, he might be more of a project, but I think my comp would be Alex Caruso. Eli is really athletic, nothing sneaky about it, and he could be a spark plug of energy off the bench.

Iowa State Floor

This gets really hard when there’s so much turnover from season to season. I just don’t really feel great with our offense. Brockington was that DUDE last year, when we needed a bucket, he was that guy. Holmes could be him, but I’m not sold quite yet. Our defense will be stingy as hell, but the NCAA officials are ‘supposedly’ trying to focus on ‘freedom of movement’ which I, of course, hate. If we have some hiccups in the non-conference and go 9-4, the Big 12 is even better than we think, we could easily be 5 games below .500 come March. 13-18 is probably the low point.

Iowa State Ceiling

DEFENSE. I was begging for an identity during the Prohm era, and Otz did not take long to give me one. This team is deeper than last year’s and should be all the more motivation to play like mad men on defense. I’d love to even see some zone coverages 1-3-1 with Osun down low guarding the paint. We could really cause havoc in the passing lanes, and score easy buckets in transition, if Lipsey comes on early and we have a smart point guard in the PnR, and we even shoo 35% from 3 as a team, put the Big 12 on notice.

Villanova has a new coach, North Carolina was just kind of ‘okay’ until March and could be ripe for a huge early season upset by those pesky Cyclones.

If all goes well, 9-9 in the Big 12, plus 11-2 in non-conference, all of a sudden, we’re 20-11 and probably a 4 seed. If you want even more optimism, drive down to Waukee on a Friday this winter and watch Omaha Biliew look like prime Kevin Garnett against Des Moines suburban schools.

Summarize Iowa State’s Season with a GIF

Thomas Turner

Iowa State’s Non-Conference Record: 11-2

An easy 3-0 start for the Cyclones then they head to the Phil Knight Invitational in Portland. The first matchup for Iowa State is Villanova and quickly we will see Osun Osunniyi in an interesting matchup. Nova loves to go small and I’m excited to see how Otz and Osunniyi plan around that. I expect a loss to come from that tournament and another one from there or in Iowa City. My logic is if they lose to Villanova they will beat Iowa and if they win against Villanova they will lose to Iowa. It’s not smart logic but I’m riding with it. Then I have the Cyclones will taking care of St. John’s and the other non-conference opponents before conference play. Later in January, they travel to face an inexperienced Missouri squad and I think they will take care of business.

Iowa State’s Conference Record: 7-11

I have the Cyclones at a 7-11 Big 12 record and starting 1-5 in conference play. Once again, it’s a brutal start to the season with games against Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas, Texas, and Baylor in 18 days. However, where I have Iowa State making up ground is against both the Oklahoma schools, as I think they win 3 of 4. I believe Oklahoma State is very overrated and if Avery Anderson isn’t dropping 30 points every night, this team has nothing on offense. They don’t have depth and yes, Moussa Cisse is a force down low, but Osunniyi can easily go toe to toe with him. I also have the Cyclones, sweeping K-State and splitting with TCU and West Virginia.

All Big 12 First Team

G: Mike Miles Jr. TCU (POY)

G: Adam Flagler BU

G: Avery Anderson OSU

F: Jalen Wilson KU

F: Kevin McCullar KU

3 Random Big 12 Predictions

1. West Virginia finishes in the top six of the Big 12. Emmitt Matthews Jr., Tre Mitchell, Joe Toussaint, and Erik Stevenson were all great pickups from the transfer portal by Bob Huggins. Toussaint was born to play the Mountaineers’ playstyle. That group along with the others on the roster put West Virginia in a good spot to not finish in last place. Then a couple of days ago, Manhattan transfer Jose Perez committed to West Virginia after his coach was fired. The MAAC Preseason Player of the Year is expected to be eligible this season and he will be a huge boost for them. He averaged 18.9 points last year and is great at creating plays.
2. Oklahoma State shits the bed and misses the NCAA Tournament once again. I’m doubling down on this one, I just don’t see it. Avery Anderson will average about 30 points a game and it still won’t matter. They lost five players who played minutes last year to the portal. The three transfers they brought in together are ranked 101st according to 247 sports. They don’t have the depth or shooting around Anderson and Cisse.
3. TCU doesn’t finish in the top 3 in the Big 12. It’s not a hot take, but I’ve seen people think this team can compete and win the Big 12. I do think they can compete but let’s be serious people. Their home court is average, and though they do have my pick of the POY on their team, I don’t think they can get it done. Baylor, Kansas, and Texas are better, sorry.

3 Random Iowa State Predictions

1. Osun Osunniyi wins Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year. This is my lock of the year. It’s pretty simple stuff. Iowa State’s defense contains a lot of pressure and now Otz can cause more chaos with Osunniyi being the anchor of the defense behind them.
2. Tre King becomes a star in the second half of the season. He won’t be able to play til after the Iowa game, but once he takes the floor, watch out. His inside-outside game is fun to watch and with him available, Otz has the chance to go with some bigger lineups at the end of the season.
3. Jaren Holmes becomes a fan favorite. Just like Jazz Kunc last year, I expect Holmes to leap into the hearts of the Cyclone fans. With his scoring ability and defense, lots of eyes will be on him this season. I expect him to handle the pressure with ease.

Iowa State Floor

A 14-19 record is what I see as the floor for this team. Filled with a lot of close losses, scoring droughts, and inconsistent leading scorers.

Iowa State Ceiling

A 22-13 record, which is what Iowa State had last year, is a potential ceiling for this team. That record includes either a run in the Big 12 Tournament or in the NCAA Tournament. Also, a win at home against either Texas or Kansas would be involved as well. Is that possible this year? Yes, very possible, but so is the 14-19 record.

Summarize Iowa State’s Season with a GIF

Austin Keeney

Iowa State’s Non-Conference Record: 10-3

We drop 2 games in Portland at the Phil Knight tournament and *gulp* lose the CyHawk game in Iowa City because we aren’t used to playing in front of no fans.

Iowa State’s Conference Record: 7-11

It gets said every year but this may be the toughest the league has ever been. Every game will be an absolute war. Iowa State will need to establish who the #1 option is well before conference play. The defense will do it’s job and frankly a 17-14 record should still have us on the NCAA bubble with the strength of the conference.

All Big 12 First Team

Adam Flagler (Baylor)

Jalen Wilson (Kansas) - POY

Tanner Groves (Oklahoma)

Mike Miles Jr. (TCU)

Kevin Obanor (Texas Tech)

3 Random Big 12 Predictions

1. Texas Tech sweeps Texas again

2. All 10 teams finish in the top 75 of Kenpom

3. TCU doesn’t finish higher than 5th in the standings

3 Random Iowa State Predictions

1. Jaren Holmes leads the team in scoring

2. Tamin Lipsey makes the all freshman team

3. Iowa State scores under 50 points in a game at least 3 times

Iowa State Floor

Much like what the football team is going through right now, the Big 12 just proves to be too much to handle for an offensively limited team. There are no guaranteed wins anywhere on the conference slate so we could certainly go like 4-14 in the conference if no one can consistently put the ball in the basket.

Iowa State Ceiling

The defense is the best in the country, maybe literally. Osun Osunniyi is an absolute force protecting the rim and TJ Otzelberger has the flexibility to mold his defense around that. Caleb Grill hits some 3s in Hilton. Gabe Kalscheur and Jaren Holmes both are capable of initiating offense on their own. Tamin Lipsey is up to the task as a freshman point guard. If all that goes our way, I can see us hitting 20 wins in the regular season and breezing to a single digit seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Summarize Iowa State’s Season with a GIF

Matthias Schwartzkopf

Iowa State’s Non-Conference Record: 11-2

Win them all except two in Portland. Maybe steal the Nova game.

Iowa State’s Conference Record: 9-9

Up and down year in the conference again but I think these guys find a way to get to 9.

All Big 12 First Team

Gabe, Osun, Caleb, Jaz and Conrad Hawley

3 Random Big 12 Predictions

1. Best league again
2. Bill Self cheats....again
3. Tyrese Hunter flops

3 Random Iowa State Predictions

1. Osun leads Iowa State in scoring
2. Gabe hits over 35% from three
3. Tamin Lipsey shows he is more than capable of being an elite PG

Iowa State Floor

Miss the NCAA Tourney

Iowa State Ceiling

Another Sweet 16 run

Summarize Iowa State’s Season with a GIF

Aiden Wyatt

Iowa State’s Non-Conference Record: 11-2

Both losses in Portland.

Iowa State’s Conference Record: 8-10

Cyclones win 7 of 8 conference victories at home.

All-Big 12 First Team:

Mike Miles - TCU (POY)

Adam Flagler - Baylor

Avery Anderson - Oklahoma State

Jalen Wilson - Kansas

Kevin McCuller - Kansas

3 Random Big 12 Predictions

1. 9 teams make the NCAA Tournament
2. Texas struggles at the point guard position.
3. Bob Huggins eats a salad.

3 Random Iowa State Predictions

1. Osun becomes the best shot blocker since Kelvin Cato.
2. The freshman play a bigger role than anyone would have thought.
3. Cyclones are a better team than last year, but we don’t see a deep tournament run.

Iowa State Floor

Ball doesn’t go in hoop, Clones miss NCAA Tourney.

Iowa State Ceiling

Gabe and the fellas figure out shooty hoops and we get a top 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament set up for a deep run.

Summarize Iowa State’s Season with a GIF

Levi Stevenson

Iowa State’s Non-Conference Record: 13-0

Look at all of these faithless traitors! They think Iowa State will lose! The nonconference season is thirteen games of pain for those that oppose Otzelbasketburgerball. The Cyclones demolish the entire field of the Phil Knight Invitational in such a dominating fashion that Knight himself turns over ownership of Nike to Osun Osunniyi as a congratulations for blocking 87 shots during the tournament.

Iowa State’s Conference Record: 18-0

The haters remain in absolute shambles. After blistering through the non-con schedule, the Cyclones lay waste to a loaded Big 12, winning every game by an average of 52-27 (even I can recognize the limits of the offense this season). Osunniyi leads the league in blocks and Tamin Lipsey breaks Tyrese Haliburton’s freshman assist record.

All-Big 12 First Team:

Tamin Lipsey

JHolmes

Gabe Kalscheur

Jazz Kunc

Osun Osunniyi

3 Random Big 12 Predictions

1. Bob Huggins finds an amateur UFC fighter to play on the wing for him. Otz does the same thing.
2. Scott Drew fully transforms into Sloth Man, leading to the slowest offense in college basketball.
3. Kansas home games are reasonably officiated for an entire game.

3 Random Iowa State Predictions

1. TJ Otzelberger installs a cage around the Hilton Coliseum floor to create actual cage matches at home. No blood, no foul.
2. Otz completely Hulks out of his smedium polo after a bad call and continues coaching the rest of the game shirtless.
3. Iowa State scores under 50 points and wins multiple times.

Iowa State Floor

Cyclones.com

Iowa State Ceiling

Summarize Iowa State’s Season with a GIF