Betting the Big 12: Week 4

Friends, I cannot deny it. I’m down bad. After a great start to the season, the last 2 weeks have been an absolute disaster. I don’t get it. I felt like I was in love with the board, but it turns out the board didn’t even like me as a friend. Last week, I went 1-9, which almost doesn’t feel possible. But any gambler knows that it’s just as impressive to go 1-9 as it is to go 9-1. The sportsbook account doesn’t agree. As they say, there’s only one way to go from here. Big 12 play is going to be an absolute roller coaster, so this is not an easy week to try and get back on track. If I’m being honest, I don’t love these games. But after how poorly last week went, maybe that’s a sign that things are about to turn around. Don’t abandon me yet people. The comeback starts now! Let’s do it!

THE GAMES

West Virginia (1-2) at Virginia Tech (2-1)

Kickoff: Thurs 6:30pm | TV: ESPN | The Line: West Virginia -1.5

Who the heck knows? West Virginia won this game at home last year. I don’t think Virginia Tech is good. I’m scared of the environment, but this might truly be Neal Brown’s last stand. At least they played well on the road to start the year in Pittsburgh.

Pick: West Virginia -1.5

#17 Baylor (2-1) at Iowa State (3-0)

Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: ESPN2 | The Line: Iowa State -2.5

Now here is a classic spot where the unranked team is favored at home against a ranked team. This is a start to the season 10 years in the making. Baylor can’t throw. The home team always wins in this series. Iowa State owes themselves this one after blowing the game in Waco last fall.

Pick: Iowa State -2.5

TCU (2-0) at SMU (2-1)

Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: ESPNU | The Line: TCU -2.5

What a fun game this shapes up to be. I can’t decide who has more revenge on the mind. Is it TCU for losing to SMU at home last year? Or is it SMU for TCU stealing their head coach? I don’t love this one either way, but I’ll assume the week off was good for the Frogs and Sonny Dykes will get them home a winner.

Pick: TCU -2.5

Duke (3-0) at Kansas (3-0)

Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: FS1 | The Line: Kansas -7.5

All hail our Jayhawk overlords. Duke is a deceptive 3-0. Kansas might score 60 points themselves.

Pick: Kansas -7.5

#22 Texas (2-1) at Texas Tech (2-1)

Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: ESPN | The Line: Texas -7

So maybe I overrated Texas Tech a little bit. No matter. Texas scored 70 on these guys last year and set in motion the firing of their old coach. The Lubbock crowd will play a huge role in this game as well. You know those fans have been waiting to boo the crap out of Texas since the SEC move was announced.

Pick: Texas Tech +7

Kansas State (2-1) at #6 Oklahoma (3-0)

Kickoff: 7:00pm | TV: Fox | The Line: Oklahoma -13

Kansas State lost at home to Tulane and Oklahoma blew the doors off Nebraska on the road. Why is this spread under 2 touchdowns? This line stinks out loud. Kansas State has a history of playing well in Norman, so let’s take them to keep it closer than the experts think.

Pick: Kansas State +13

BEST BET AROUND THE COUNTRY

South Carolina -22 vs Charlotte

Charlotte stinks out loud. Charlotte’s defense cannot stop anyone. South Carolina got smushed by Georgia last week and has some demons to exercise. Cocky wins in a rout.

NFL PICK OF THE WEEKEND

49ers -1.5 at Broncos

Russ Wilson is washed, Nate Hackett is a bonehead, and the 49ers are ready to roll with Jimmy G back at QB. This might be such a blowout that Brock Purdy will get his first NFL action.

PROP OF THE WEEK FOR KANSAS STATE FANS

Leading Big 12 rusher this weekend?

Deuce Vaughn +150

Bijan Robinson +200

Eric Gray +300

Jirehl Brock +550

The Field +250

Season record: 13-18-1 (-6.8 units)