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Betting the Big 12: Week 5

6-2 last week and I love the board again.

Duke v Kansas Photo by Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images

The Big 12 is going to keep doing this to Texas and Oklahoma until they leave. We’re on the 2nd year of the revenge tour by the Hateful 8 and they still don’t get it. Texas fans have long been the worst group with the undeserved superiority complex. Let’s get it clear. Texas is 7-9 since announcing the move to the SEC. Oklahoma has 3 Big 12 losses and the coach who left them instantly made USC a Playoff competitor. Texas and Oklahoma are mid tier SEC schools that made their own path to the CFP exponentially harder for no reason other than a little extra money. With the playoff officially expanding to 12 teams I’ve been thinking more about if I could undo it and have Texas/OU stay in the Big 12. How much more tv money would we make? How much more competitive would the conference be? Who would be willing to join us? But I think the correct answer is no. Not if it means dealing with their B.S.

Now the reason they can’t win is because it’s everyone’s Super Bowl when we play them? The problem is everyone else doesn’t roll over and let them win when we play? As if it’s a bad thing that teams try hard when they play them. The Big 12 is going to be in a great place after the new schools join. We’ll be number 3 in tv money, number 2 in competition, and number 1 in fun. That’s good enough for me.

With that out of the way, let’s talk about gambling! The roller coaster season continued with a 6-2 week last week to get back on track. These smaller slate of games have brought the board into focus. I’m seeing things clearly. The column is almost back to .500 on the season, and it’s time to kick it into overdrive. Hop on now. I’m not slowing down.


#18 Oklahoma (3-1) at TCU (3-0)

Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: ABC | The Line: Oklahoma -6.5

What happened to Oklahoma last weekend is a glorious sign for the impending SEC move. Their fans absolutely cannot handle losing. It won’t happen two weeks in a row.

Pick: Oklahoma -6.5

Texas Tech (3-1) at Kansas State (3-1)

Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: ESPN+ | The Line: Kansas State -8.5

Texas Tech is a different team at home. That’s my stance on them. They also got a little lucky on 4th down conversions and taking risks against Texas. That won’t fly this weekend. Kansas State now has confidence and gets to return home. Take the purple kitties to set up a big time Farmageddon game next weekend.

Pick: Kansas State -8.5

Iowa State (3-1) at Kansas (4-0)

Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: ESPN2 | The Line: Iowa State -3.5

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, Kansas is our new football overlord. All kidding aside, I was stunned to see Iowa State giving points on the road. That’s an encouraging sign for a fan of Iowa State, but the smart bet here is on Kansas. At the very least, I trust their offense to score points late for a backdoor cover opportunity.

Pick: Kansas +3.5

#9 Oklahoma State (3-0) at #16 Baylor (3-1)

Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: FOX | The Line: Baylor -2

Game of the year in the conference? I think Oklahoma State is good enough to make the College Football Playoff. I really do. But Baylor might be the most complete team in the league. In these absolute toss up spots, we’re betting off taking the home team.

Pick: Baylor -2

West Virginia (2-2) at Texas (2-2)

Kickoff: 6:30pm | TV: FS1 | The Line: Texas -9.5

I want to. I really want to take West Virginia. I desperately want to bet on West Virginia. Can’t do it. This is the perfect bounce back spot for Texas after a tough loss, and a fade for West Virginia after a big win. Bijan Robinson will probably run for 200 yards in this game and definitely won’t fumble the game away.

Pick: Texas -9.5


Indiana +5.5 at Nebraska

This feels like a trap spot, but regardless Nebraska is an automatic fade. Why are they favored against anybody? They couldn’t even summon up a good effort after finally firing Scott Frost.


Bills -3 at Ravens

We can admit last week’s loss to the Dolphins was weird, right? The Bills had 100 chances to put the game away and just didn’t get it done. They’ll be a better team for it. What it also means is that we get them at a slight discount against a Ravens defense that can’t stop anyone. This is a great bounce back spot for the likely best team in the NFL.


Will Sark be fired before the SEC move?

Yes -110

No -110

Season record: 19-20-1 (-3.0 units)