Betting the Big 12: Week 7

In the interest of full transparency I am writing this as a pure stream of conscience exercise after watching West Virginia -3 lose on a Hail Mary on the last play of the game.

I’m bitter. I was excited to write this column after a huge winning week last week. I finally felt like I had a clear vision of the board and was about to start doing some real winning, and in one instant we are brought back down to Earth. Why don’t defenders just knock down a last second desperation heave? What are we doing???

In an effort to turn the vibes around, allow me to relive some of my worst personal beats as a gambler.

Northwestern (+7) vs Stanford, 2019

I’ll start with 2 games that happened on the same day, the first Saturday of the season, within hours of each other. Northwestern had scored late to be in position to cover, and got the ball back to maybe even try to win the game outright. Instead, let’s take a look at what happened.

Oregon (+2.5) vs Auburn, 2019

I think Oregon closed as a 2.5 point underdog? Funny enough this was Bo Nix’s first college start. Auburn was in position to kick a field goal to win by 2, except they had other ideas. In a 4 hour stretch I lost 2 bets in this fashion.

Browns (+3.5) vs Ravens, 2020

Scott Van Pelt has christened this play “Pitchy Pitchy Woo Woo”. Browns +3.5. Baker Mayfield balled out in this game. Cleveland was in position to win until Lamar Jackson came out of the bathroom to give the Ravens a 3 point lead in the final seconds. All we had to do was avoid some foolishness on the last kickoff, and here’s what happened:

West Virginia (+7.5) vs TCU, 2021

These guys again, huh? The worst part was that West Virginia jumped offsides on the play. The refs could’ve just blown it dead and the game would’ve been over.

After going through this nightmare again, there’s no way I’m not giving out winners this week, right? Right?

THE GAMES

Iowa State (3-3) at Cincinnati (2-3)

Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: FS1 | The Line: Cincinnati -5

This Cyclone secondary against Emory Jones? It’s a no brainer. I’m going to ignore that Houston win and still continue to fade the new schools that haven’t caught up to P5 football yet. Don’t look now but the Cyclones are starting to put things together.

Pick: Iowa State +5

#23 Kansas (5-1) at Oklahoma State (3-2)

Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: FS1 | The Line: Kansas -3

I consulted a true expert on all things Big 12 for insight on this one, Cyclone Larry. Here’s what he told me.

“OSU. Fade Kansas and back Gundy. It’s a double whammy.”

Sounds good enough to me!

Pick: Oklahoma State +3

BYU (4-1) at TCU (3-3)

Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: ESPN | The Line: TCU -5.5

We’re going to stick with the premise that the newbies are struggling to get up to speed. TCU moved the ball very well against Iowa State but was plagued by turnovers. The backup QB getting all the reps in practice this week takes care of that issue. Frogs respond and cover.

Pick: TCU -5.5

Kansas State (3-2) at Texas Tech (3-3)

Kickoff: 6:00pm | TV: FS1 | The Line: Texas Tech -1.5

It’s a Chris Kleiman bet here. Do we really think they’ll play that badly 2 weeks in a row? I know it doesn’t feel great but I have to do it.

Pick: Kansas State +1.5

LOCK OF THE WEEK SO GOOD IT SHOULD BE ILLEGAL ACCORDING TO THE IOWA GAMING COMMISSION

Oregon State -3.5 vs UCLA

This is a true freshman QB going on the road to a hostile stadium, and UCLA playing in front of a full crowd will have to throw them off a bit. Oregon State is really, really good. Lay the points with the home team.

NFL LOCK OF THE WEEK

Buccaneers +3 vs Lions

Let’s back the surprising Bucs getting points at home. Detroit is really going to be 5-1? Doesn’t sound like the Lions I know. Apologies to David Montgomery.

PROP OF THE WEEK FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA FANS

Last newbie to win a Big 12 game against an existing member?

Cincinnati -110

BYU +125

Central Florida +175

Season record: 28-30-2 (-4.6 units)