Betting the Big 12: Week 6

I can’t believe we’re already at the half way point of the regular season. We’ve officially hit the best month on the sports calendar though. October is officially the beginning of fall, soup season, football almost every day, playoff baseball, and even more football. This month is also going to be Rocctober. The Cyclones are going to hit their stride. Just like I am about to hit my stride. What I’ve learned in the first 5 weeks of the season is that I stink at handicapping games. It’s been rough out there, especially when Iowa State gives up 50 points and doesn’t score in the 2nd half in Norman. Also when TCU is favored by 2 touchdowns so I trick myself into betting the wrong side instead of taking my gut. That’s the strategy for the rest of this year. There’s lots of games left, and from now on, I’m just going with my gut. If you, dear reader, have followed me this long, stick with me a little longer.

THE GAMES

Kansas State (3-1) at Oklahoma State (2-2)

Kickoff: Friday 6:30pm | TV: ESPN | The Line: Kansas State -11

We start right away with a gut play. I just think Kansas State is the better team. Friday night in Stillwater sounds weird, but the Purple Cats are immune to weird.

Pick: Kansas State -11

#12 Oklahoma (5-0) vs #3 Texas (5-0)

Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: ABC | The Line: Texas -5

This is a bit of a legacy game for me as a bettor. I said before the season that Oklahoma would be really good when no one else thought so. I took them at +900 to make the playoff and I have a flier on Dillon Gabriel at 60/1 to win the Heisman from before the season. No way I’m betting Texas here. Plus, I’ve seen the Sooner offense in person. They’ll be able to score and can easily win the game outright. Don’t forget that Gabriel did not play in the 49-0 game last year.

Pick: Oklahoma +5

UCF (3-2) at Kansas (4-1)

Kickoff: 3:00pm | TV: FOX | The Line: UCF -1.5

I think what we’ve learned about these new 4 schools is that they have a way to go to catch up to Big 12 football. I know Daniels is out for Kansas, but Jason Bean has played plenty of football. He’s not good enough to cover at Texas, but I love the Jayhawks now getting points at home. Their offense will be much more efficient and put up plenty of points.

Pick: Kansas +1.5

Texas Tech (2-3) at Baylor (2-3)

Kickoff: 7:00pm | TV: ESPN2 | The Line: Texas Tech -1.5

This game is affectionately known as the BU-TT Bowl, and these two teams really live up to it. I have to believe that Baylor’s crazy comeback was more fluke than anything else.

Pick: Texas Tech -1.5

TCU (3-2) at Iowa State (2-3)

Kickoff: 7:00pm | TV: FS1 | The Line: TCU -6.5

So Iowa State can give up 50 points to Oklahoma. That won’t happen this week. You can take that to the bank. On Jack Trice Legacy night, the Clones are winning the game.

Pick: Iowa State +6.5

LOCK OF THE WEEK SO GOOD IT SHOULD BE ILLEGAL ACCORDING TO THE IOWA GAMING COMMISSION

Wyoming +6 vs Fresno State

We’re going to have to stay up late for this one. Things get weird in Laramie. Wyoming already has home wins against Texas Tech and App State. Let’s add another against a Top 25 opponent.

NFL LOCK OF THE WEEK

Colts +2.5 vs Titans

Anthony Richardson is the truth. I’m at the point of regretting the Bears not keeping the #1 draft pick last year and taking him. The Titans won 27-3 last week. No way they’ll play that well 2 weeks in a row, right?

PROP OF THE WEEK FOR IOWA STATE FANS

Will Matt Campbell yell at a fan this weekend?

Yes +300

No -450

Season record: 22-28-2 (-8.4 units)