Betting the Big 12: Week 11

I have to say I’m a little bit conflicted about how to handle this week of Iowa State football. On the one hand, we get our first experience of Big 12 After Dark, and that can be fun. Iowa State is a significant favorite to win another road game and clinch bowl eligibility. And to give a peek behind the curtain at home, I do have an almost 1 year old who will (fingers crossed) will be in bed before kickoff.

There is a real downside though. If you ask me we’re staring at a war of a football game that we will not be able to turn off until it ends, and I’m looking at about a 1:00am ending. The kiddo is liable to be awake by 6:00am, if he sleeps through the night. I empathize with all the Cyclone parents out there. Just know that I’m in the same boat with you. Where we might differ is that I’ll also be sweating out bets. The column is on a nice little run of winning. Ask me if I plan to slow down? I don’t! Let’s keep the train rolling.

THE GAMES

Texas Tech (4-5) at #16 Kansas (7-2)

Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: FS1 | The Line: Kansas -3.5

Say hello to the rattiest of all rat lines. Can someone explain to me why Kansas is favored by less than a touchdown. This stinks out loud.

Pick: Texas Tech +3.5

Baylor (3-6) at #25 Kansas State (6-3)

Kickoff: 2:00pm | TV: ESPN+ | The Line: Kansas State -21

Doesn’t Purple Kansas have to feel sick about last week? For the record, I loved that they went for the win in OT. I just wish they had a better play drawn up. That won’t be necessary this week.

Pick: Kansas State -21

#15 Oklahoma State (7-2) at Central Florida (4-5)

Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: ESPN | The Line: Oklahoma State -2.5

I’ve heard a lot of discussion about how Oklahoma State is on upset alert this week after maybe the most emotional win of the season. I don’t buy it. Gundy has a chance to get this team to the conference championship game. There’s plenty of motivation. They’ll keep the train rolling.

Pick: Oklahoma State -2.5

West Virginia (6-3) at #17 Oklahoma (7-2)

Kickoff: 6:00pm | TV: FOX | The Line: Oklahoma -12.5

Clearly the shine has come off Oklahoma. I have a sneaking feeling that with Dallas a long shot we might see this team pack it in a bit.

Pick: West Virginia +12.5

Cincinnati (2-7) at Houston (4-5)

Kickoff: 6:00pm | TV: FS1 | The Line: Houston -2.5

What a gross game. Both these teams are not good, and I don’t want to watch any of this. I’m only making a pick because I have to, per the rules I made up for myself in this column.

Pick: Houston -2.5

#7 Texas (8-1) at TCU (4-5)

Kickoff: 6:30pm | TV: ABC | The Line: Texas -11.5

TCU just seems to be the team I cannot get right under any circumstance. Texas’ QB situation without Quinn Ewers is... not great. But TCU’s situation with their entire team is... not good. If I’m wrong at least that means the much hated Longhorns had one more uncomfortable matchup with the Frogs. I’ll take my chances.

Pick: Texas -11.5

Iowa State (5-4) at BYU (5-4)

Kickoff: 9:15pm | TV: ESPN | The Line: Iowa State -8

What is going on with this spread? I know Kedon Slovis might not play for BYU, but what am I missing? If I’m wrong that just means Iowa State had a comfortable win to clinch bowl eligibility, so let’s call this the happiness hedge of the century.

Pick: BYU +8

LOCK OF THE WEEK SO GOOD IT SHOULD BE ILLEGAL ACCORDING TO THE IOWA GAMING COMMISSION

Michigan -4.5 at Penn State

James Franklin does not win big games. Michigan has *a lot* going on around their program, but they love beating the hell out of teams. Drew Allar against this defense is a recipe for disaster.

NFL LOCK OF THE WEEK

Lions -3 at Chargers

Are the Lions the best team in the NFC? Maybe! Dan Campbell has the boys fired up off the bye week and let’s count on David Montgomery to come back and make an impact on the game.

PARLAY OF THE WEEK FOR OKLAHOMA FANS

Odds Oklahoma ever wins another Bedlam football game?

Yes -150

No +120

Season record: 47-42-2 (+0.8 units)