Betting the Big 12: Week 10

Before we get to the bets this week, perhaps we should address the biggest story in the state of Iowa. A tale of a father and son working together, flaunting the rules along the way to make it happen. It seemed so simple. Dad would stick with the family business for as long as he wanted, and eventually hand the reigns to his son. The business would carry on to moderate success as it always had, and things would be set for the next 20 or so years until a new generation was able to be brought on. But life isn’t that simple. The son was not put in a position to succeed, and certainly wasn’t qualified to be in his position in the first place. The results just weren’t there, year after year. Finally the shareholders in the business had to step in, and the future all of a sudden doesn’t look so simple.

I have no idea what will happen with the Iowa football program over the next few weeks. Kirk Ferentz has been intentionally vague and become increasingly fiery with the local media about his plans. It’s obvious he didn’t want to have his son get fired. I also don’t think he was so oblivious to the fact that his son was literally the worst, by any metric, of anyone who held his job in the FBS. The university is at a crossroads for the first time in 25 years. Kirk isn’t eternal. Brian, in my opinion, is only sticking around for the last 5 games of the season as a compromise to keep Kirk from quitting on the spot.

Everything Iowa has touched has seemed to work out in their own modest way for decades, and this is the first time it feels like things are not trending in a positive direction for them. It’s a fascinating human interest story to watch from afar. And that’s just what we’ll do, as Iowa State fans, while winning Big 12 games and enjoying our consistency that we’ve seemed to get back to after a one year blip.

Ok, betting. The column has finally gotten on the right side for the season after a 6-2 week. We are officially plus money. If you’ve been with me all along, thank you. It hasn’t been easy, but the month of November is shaping up to be exciting and full of opportunity. It’s been a good few weeks with the bets. Let’s see if we can ride this momentum to the finish line.

THE GAMES

TCU (4-4) at Texas Tech (3-5)

Kickoff: Thurs 6:00pm | TV: FS1 | The Line: Texas Tech -3

Hoo boy do I not like either of these teams. Both are starting to see bowl prospects slip away. I guess I just have to take a chance on TCU after losing 41-3 and having a week off to get themselves together.

Pick: TCU +3

#23 Kansas State (6-2) at #7 Texas (7-1)

Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: FOX | The Line: Texas -4

Ok, so the line here has moved like crazy towards K-State. I do believe they can win this game, but Texas is maybe being a little disrespected here. Then again, the QB position is a total toss up. At the end of the day, you can bet that I won’t bet on Texas though.

Pick: Kansas State +4

Houston (3-5) at Baylor (3-5)

Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: ESPN+ | The Line: Baylor -4

Both of these teams are entirely unpredictable. Baylor probably isn’t as bad as their record indicates. Let’s give them a shot at home.

Pick: Baylor -4

Central Florida (3-5) at Cincinnati (2-6)

Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: FS1 | The Line: Central Florida -3.5

Remember when Central Florida was talked up as a dark horse team that could compete for the Big 12 championship this year? That was crazy. Do we think Gus Malzahn is quiet quitting or eyeing an SEC job yet?

Pick: Cincinnati +3.5

#9 Oklahoma (7-1) at #22 Oklahoma State (6-2)

Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: ABC | The Line: Oklahoma -6

It’s the last Bedlam, probably ever. At the risk of Oklahoma State being too amped up, there’s no way to not bet them in this spot. This means everything to Gundy, and Oklahoma is vulnerable.

Pick: Oklahoma State +6

BYU (5-3) at West Virginia (5-3)

Kickoff: 6:00pm | TV: FS1 | The Line: West Virginia -10

Say hello to the greatest culture clash in college football history. Forget the game on the field. Show me the tailgating atmosphere with BYU fans.

Pick: BYU +10

#21 Kansas (6-2) at Iowa State (5-3)

Kickoff: 6:00pm | TV: ESPN | The Line: Iowa State -2.5

It was over for Kansas when they announced the kickoff time. Iowa State is rolling, and JTS will make an impact on this game. Kansas is in a massive letdown spot off one of the biggest wins in school history.

Pick: Iowa State -2.5

LOCK OF THE WEEK SO GOOD IT SHOULD BE ILLEGAL ACCORDING TO THE IOWA GAMING COMMISSION

Washington/USC Over 76.5 points

I’m going to do something I’ve never done in this column and give out a total. Honestly, they couldn’t set this one high enough. What more can be said about USC’s defense? I’m banking on about 45 points from Washington, and Caleb Williams is definitely good for the rest.

NFL LOCK OF THE WEEK

Chiefs -1.5 vs Dolphins

Last week was a fluke. Mahomes and co. won’t be that bad 2 weeks in a row and the Dolphins have been blown out by both good teams they’ve played so far.

PARLAY OF THE WEEK FOR BAYLOR FANS

Dave Aranda to be fired +

Baylor men’s basketball wins the Big 12 +

Kim Mulkey doesn’t win the SEC

(+1000)

Season record: 42-38-2 (+0.2 units)