Betting the Big 12: Week 4

Here we go. I hope to this point that you dear readers have been not following my advice to this point. It’s been one of those seasons where I’m not seeing the board as well as I’d like to. And when I’ve been wrong, I’ve been wrong. But much in the way that Iowa State’s season has gone, there’s still a whole conference schedule to go. Conference play is my time to shine as a bettor.

There are less games, and more time to focus. This weekend is a preview of the new Big 12. Almost every game has something I’m excited to see. I mean, look at what the new schools are up to. BYU-Kansas. Cincinnati-Oklahoma. UCF-Kansas State. That trio is as good as anything you’re going to get on the slate from an entertainment perspective.

THE GAMES

#16 Oklahoma (3-0) at Cincinnati (2-1)

Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: FOX | The Line: Oklahoma -14.5

Cincy’s first home conference game and it’s a doozy. Oklahoma scores a lot of points but is still kind of untested. Cincy should be upset after blowing a game to Miami (OH) last week. This is a great spot to get a kitchen sink effort and keep this close. I don’t doubt that they can win the game outright.

Pick: Cincinnati +14.5

SMU (2-1) at TCU (2-1)

Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: FS1 | The Line: TCU -6.5

It’s the last Iron Skillet game for awhile, and SMU is extremely upset about it. And honestly, even though I can’t stand their attitude towards the ACC move, I still think their anger is justified about TCU cancelling the rivalry. This TCU team already dropped a home game to a school that can score a lot of points. SMU keeps it close.

Pick: SMU +6.5

BYU (3-0) at Kansas (3-0)

Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: ESPN | The Line: Kansas -8.5

Forget the betting for a minute. This game is going to be ridiculously fun. Both teams should move up and down the field with ease. This is BYU’s first conference game, and even though it’s on the road, I think that motivating factor still holds true.

Pick: BYU +8.5

Texas Tech (1-2) at West Virginia (2-1)

Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: ESPN+ | The Line: Texas Tech -6

Does anyone else smell a rat line? Make this one make sense. It doesn’t. This is a personal gambling pillar of fade the public, and I think the public will be all over the home dog here.

Pick: Texas Tech -6

Oklahoma State (2-1) at Iowa State (1-2)

Kickoff: 3:00pm | TV: FS1 | The Line: Iowa State -3.5

Do you trust this version of the Cyclones to not only win a game, but win it by more than a field goal? Take the dog as a happiness hedge.

Pick: Oklahoma State +3.5

Sam Houston State (0-2) at Houston (1-2)

Kickoff: 6:00pm | TV: ESPN+ | The Line: Houston -12

Honestly, I’m struggling here. Houston laid a massive egg against TCU last week, but Sam Houston can’t score. This is probably Dana’s last chance to put some points up.

Pick: Houston -12

#3 Texas (3-0) at Baylor (1-2)

Kickoff: 6:30pm | TV: ABC | The Line: Texas -15

While Texas may not be all the way back yet, Baylor is not the team that’s going to trip them up. I think Baylor is really going to struggle to score, and even though all these Big 12 teams are going to give them their best shot on the way out, the loss isn’t coming here.

Pick: Texas -15

UCF (3-0) at Kansas State (2-1)

Kickoff: 7:00pm | TV: FS1 | The Line: Kansas State -4

We’re probably looking at a battle of backup QBs here, which to me means a physical game that’s won in the trenches, and probably with points at a premium (I like the under here too). I’d take K-State a lot more than UCF in that type of game.

Pick: Kansas State -4

LOCK OF THE WEEK SO GOOD IT SHOULD BE ILLEGAL ACCORDING TO THE IOWA GAMING COMMISSION

Notre Dame +3 vs Ohio State

I’m buying the Sam Hartman hype. I took him to win the Heisman before the season and this is where he has a Heisman moment. Ohio State has been sleepwalking into this game. Take the Irish in a raucous home atmosphere.

NFL LOCK OF THE WEEK

Packers -2 vs Saints

Derek Carr winning in Lambeau? I don’t think so.

PARLAY OF THE WEEK FOR IOWA STATE FANS

Iowa State to beat Oklahoma State + Throw a pass on the first play of the game (+1000)

Season record: 15-19 (-5.9 units)