Betting the Big 12: Week 5

I’ll be on the road to Norman for an annual tradition of traveling to a road game. I have high hopes and have heard good things about the town. In fact, if you’re reading this and have been there before, hit me up on the WRNL discord and let me know the best places to go/tailgating tips. Lost in the many traditions being taken away by conference realignment is the lack of reasonable one-day road trips in the Big 12. I’m excited about the possibility of a trip to Colorado or Arizona, and the Kansas schools will always be there. But even though they completely went behind our backs while trying to destroy the Big 12, I’ll still kind of miss Oklahoma, and I want to make the most out of this weekend. A flight to Salt Lake City or Orlando just isn’t the same.

THE GAMES

Cincinnati (2-2) at BYU (3-1)

Kickoff: Friday 9:15pm | TV: ESPN | The Line: Cincinnati -1

It’s going to take some getting used to when the newbies play each other. I thought taking the new schools against the spread in their first conference home game would be a good idea, but so far all 4 of them lost by double digits in their first game. The strategy is 1-1 against the spread, so I’m going to see it through. Cincinnati being favored on the road is wild. Emory Jones cannot throw the ball.

Pick: BYU +1

#24 Kansas (4-0) at #3 Texas (4-0)

Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: ABC | The Line: Texas -16.5

Kansas has a chance to do the funniest thing possible. You know what? Let’s run it back for old time’s sake.

Good for Kansas turning the program around, but it was more fun when they were a doormat and beating Texas. They’ll move the ball and score just enough points to keep this close. Texas hasn’t faced an offense close to this dynamic yet.

Pick: Kansas +16.5

Houston (2-2) at Texas Tech (1-3)

Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: FS2 | The Line: Texas Tech -8.5

I hate both these teams, but I might hate Houston a little bit more.

Pick: Texas Tech -8.5

Baylor (1-3) at UCF (3-1)

Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: FS1 | The Line: UCF -12.5

Baylor is on quit watch. They absolutely cannot move the ball on offense. UCF will be the last of the new 4 to play a home game, so the system says take them.

Pick: UCF -12.5

Iowa State (2-2) at #14 Oklahoma (4-0)

Kickoff: 6:00pm | TV: FS1 | The Line: Oklahoma -20

Here’s a fun stat: Matt Campbell is 12-3 ATS as a double-digit underdog on the road, and 6-0 ATS as an underdog of more than 17 points. Can’t argue with that. In all seriousness, this is a look-ahead spot for Oklahoma with the Red River game next weekend. Iowa State’s defense will slow this down enough that it doesn’t get too out of hand.

Pick: Iowa State +20

West Virginia (3-1) at TCU (3-1)

Kickoff: 7:00pm | TV: ESPN2 | The Line: TCU -14.5

This is probably a trap but I just can’t believe TCU is favored by more than 2 scores. West Virginia held opponents to 6 and 13 points the last 2 weeks. On second thought, maybe that’s what they want me to think and TCU is better than their week 1 performance says.

Pick: TCU -14.5

LOCK OF THE WEEK SO GOOD IT SHOULD BE ILLEGAL ACCORDING TO THE IOWA GAMING COMMISSION

Kentucky -1.5 vs Florida

First and foremost, this is a system play. Florida is ranked in the top 25 (although I have no idea why) and Kentucky is favored. Take the home team. Next, I don’t believe Florida is any good. They got blown out the only time they played away from home this year.

NFL LOCK OF THE WEEK

Broncos -3 at Bears

The Bears have to be an auto-fade right now, no matter what. This is the worst team in the NFL. This team has a defensive head coach running the worst defense in the NFL because the last coach resigned in scandal. The QB and OC are fighting. This team can’t even stop their equipment from being stolen from Soldier Field.

PROP OF THE WEEK FOR BAYLOR FANS

Baylor Men’s NCAA Tournament Seed in 2024 (-1.5) vs Baylor Conference Football Wins

Season record: 19-24-1 (-7.0 units)